Cameron’s cynical referendum scam

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Westminster was stunned on Friday when Douglas Carswell left the Tories to join UKIP, resigned his seat, and triggered a by-election.  And I must admit I was stunned this morning when I saw the headline in the Mail: SHOCK POLL: CAMERON FACES UKIP BY-ELECTION BLOODBATH: Farage’s 44-point lead over Tories.  Forty four points.  Almost too good to be true.

It seems there’s a groundswell of support for UKIP, especially in the south-east, and in Clacton this effect is reinforced by a very strong personal following for Douglas.  He deserves that support, because in standing down and triggering a by-election, he has been both courageous and honourable.  Those Tories who have accused him of vain posturing and conceit are beneath contempt.  Many MPs in the circumstances would have said “The general election is pretty soon, so we’ll let it ride”.  Douglas did the decent thing and sought a new mandate as a UKIP MP.

The Tory reaction has been predictable, if heavily orchestrated after the Tory Whips’ phone-round.  They’re saying that only the Conservatives can deliver an EU Referendum, and that therefore Douglas by switching parties has damaged the chances of what he wants most.  This is, of course, self-serving nonsense.

We need to understand why the Prime Minister promised an EU referendum in the first place.  He had an immediate objective: to buy-off his eurosceptic back-benchers, and activists, and members.  To park the Europe issue in the long grass until after the General Election next year.  This is cynical electioneering, and few –least of all Douglas Carswell — are taken in.

But there seems to be a longer-term objective too.  Cameron has never denied that he wants the UK to stay in the EU.  He’s decided that the way to solve the problem, and to make the Europe question go away in the long-term, is to organise a referendum which will endorse EU membership.  He believes that the issue will be settled for a generation (though he should remember the EU precedent — if you don’t like the result of a referendum, have another one a few months later.  Keep voting until you get the “right” result).

So he’s trying to emulate Harold Wilson’s ploy from thirty years ago.  Announce a “renegotiation”.  Come back with a few trivial and nugatory concessions (can anyone remember what Wilson’s renegotiation achieved in 1975? No.  Nor can I).  Wave a piece of paper while shouting “Peace in Our Time”, or “Game, Set and Match to Great Britain”.  Then win the referendum and carry on as before.

The fact is that Wilson’s “renegotiation” had less to do with the independence of our country, or our relationship with Brussels, than it had to do with Wilson’s internal Labour Party management.  And so it is today with Cameron and the Tories.  History repeats itself.  Plus ça change, plus c’est la même chose.  Cameron may have promised a referendum (not for the first time — and he broke the last promise).  But he hasn’t promised to campaign for “OUT”.

So a vote for the Tories is a vote to stay in the EU.  This is so self-evident that I am surprised, and disappointed, to see that MPs with a eurosceptic track record like Bill Cash, or with the intellectual fire-power of Mark Reckless, or the integrity of John Redwood, are prepared to endorse it.  They should know better, and I believe they do.

 

A vote for UKIP, however, puts pressure on all parties to offer an EU referendum.  Ed Miliband seems set against it, but the UKIP surge will put enormous pressure on him — some of his close colleagues are already talking about it.  And it’s by no means inconceivable that UKIP might hold the balance of power in the next parliament.  Our price for any cooperation will include — you guessed it — an In/Out referendum.

Cameron’s position is doubly cynical, because he knows in advance that no serious concessions are on the table in Brussels.  Today the papers are trumpeting the appointment of Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister, as “Victory in the EU for Cameron” 

But what’s on offer?  Possibly a few minor restrictions on welfare benefits for EU immigrants.  But that’s not good enough, Dave.  We want to be able to control our borders.  We want a cap on immigration.  We want to be able to select for needed skills, and to reject applicants — including “EU Citizens” — if they don’t meet the criteria.

Europe will not budge on “free movement”.  Or on agriculture of fisheries, or energy.  Or on “ever-closer union”.  We can’t even stop them from  banning popular vacuum cleaners.  The message is as it has always been.  If you don’t like the destination, you have to get off the bus.

So the people of Clacton will decide on October.  Of course as Harold Wilson didn’t quite say, “A by-election campaign is a long time in politics”.  We can’t be complacent.  It isn’t won until it’s won, and we all have a lot of work to do to deliver for Douglas, for UKIP, and for Britain.  But a 44 point lead at this stage is a huge boost — and a huge compliment to the wisdom of Clacton’s voters.  They, like Douglas, like UKIP, can see right through David Cameron’s cynical referendum scam.

 

 

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43 Responses to Cameron’s cynical referendum scam

  1. Thomas Fox says:

    No doubt Douglas will be successful as he speaks for the UK people and for many years reciprocated electronically from his office , thus his constituents feel involved rather than being preached to by some bog standard letter with that smug smiling MP. Please send money but don’t asked us any difficult questions as we only require your vote !

  2. Henwood says:

    In November the Lisbon Treaty kicks in. Under this, no country may leave the EU without the agreement of the majority of member states, and it will make any referendum pointless. Why do so many not understand this?

    • David says:

      Then we must spread this info. throughout the land

    • Maureen Gannon says:

      Henwood when I try to tell people this they say “If that ‘s true why don’t the medis ever mention it.” so Roger here’s another thing to proclaim loud and louder still expose the hypocracy.

      • Henwood says:

        Thanks, Maureen. I have tried the usual suspects, Spctator, Daily Telegraph, Times, Maill but so far all I get back is the usual “The Editor thanks you for your letter etc etc” and then nothing. The local press spikes all letters with the words EU or UKIP in them. However, undaunted, we continue to send letters!

    • Mike Stallard says:

      Even worse – the Council discusses our leaving without us present. The President of the Commission then puts the motion to the hemicycle. Those two things alone are enough to stop us leaving. And they will take years and years. The President of the Council has said only yesterday that he wants Britain to stay in Europe.

      • Henwood says:

        Thanks, Mike. You have a bull’s eye. I appreciate that whilst the party has attracted the full attention of the press, and the unwelcome attention of a few oddballs, the main aims of UKIP are now being understood by a rapidly increasing percentage of the population. We do have the odds stacked against us, as you rightly indicate, but if the three major parties continue just as they are, then we will win. I have asked repeatedly for confirmation that all the treaties signed by HMG have had Royal Assent (if they have not then they are not binding) and I am hoping that some evidence of this will become available. That evidence will be the key, I think.

    • eddie coke says:

      I’d highly recommend Gerard Batten’s excellent book ‘Inglorious Revolution’ if you haven’t already read it. He describes how Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty (the one we use to invoke liberty) is a trap – with or without QMV, we stay in until we have negotiated trading deals with the European countries left in. This will take years – they’ll make sure of it!

      The proper option is simply to repeal the European Communities Act – DONE! At that point, we’re out and stop paying – no need to ask anybody else. That Act was strictly an act of treason [Dec.of Right 1688/89 "no foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate hath, or ought to have, any jurisdiction, power, superiority, pre-eminence, or authority, ecclesiastical or spiritual, within this realm"]. (Which is why I consider the whole concept of a referendum a red herring – we need to undo the crime and put the collaborators on trial.)

      I (not Gerard) would also suggest we repeal every “law”, Act, Statute, Instrument and regulation enacted since 1972. On the day we leave, stick ‘em in a pot, and we can reinstate any of them as we wish later on, if we consider that they have merit.

      And then we can begin negotiating trade deals from outside – if they want to sell us anything, they’ll be happy to deal.

      (What QMV CAN do however is practically anything else – get ready for driving on the right, folks!)

      • Henwood says:

        Thanks for some illumination on my darkness. But, Eddie, how does one go about repealing an Act of Parliament? Would this not require a vote in the House of Commons, and if so, how many seats will UKIP need to ensure it goes through? I am trying to imagine the necessary scenario!

    • vera says:

      It will not stop us who want to leave to continue the fight. It was in our laws (Magna Carta I think) that our sovereignty could NEVER be given away but treasonous politicians did so none the less. The EU has no legality, when it comes to leaving the EU, we will leave. Meanwhile the whole poisonous edifice could just implode like the Soviet Union.

    • ian wragg says:

      Bullshit. We are a sovereign nation and can repeal the communities act at ant time. If they don’t like it tough titty. Will they send in the tanks.

      • Henwood says:

        Thanks, Ian. Do you know if the Treaties that were signed, Rome, Maastricht, Lisbon etc.,had Royal Assent? I have always wanted to know. .

      • ian wragg says:

        It doesn’t matter who signed them. Any government will balls can abrogate them. It seems the EU can play fast and loose with treaty obligations and so can we. We just need someone with a spine.

    • Sean O'Hare says:

      This is absolute rubbish! To leave the EU a withdrawing member state invokes Article 50. This gives the withdrawing state a period of two years to reach agreement with the EU’s negotiating team on trade terms. This will then be put to a vote by the EU Council who will decide whether or not those terms are acceptable to the other 27 countries. This vote was always subject to QMV as it was only introduced in the Lisbon Treaty. The only thing that changes on 1st Nov is the system of QMV, which really makes very little difference. The Council cannot stop a member state withdrawing as we would be perfectly at liberty to leave at any time with our without agreement.

      I do wish the anti-EU faction would get its fact straight as this erroneous propaganda does our cause no good whatsoever. We are just made to look like ignoramouses that can’t read a Treaty written in plain English.

      • ian wragg says:

        Treaties can be abrogated.

      • Henwood says:

        Thank you, Sean. At last someone who knows about these things gives the right information to someone else who cares about his country and likes to get things right!

      • Sean O'Hare says:

        @Ian

        Yes what you say is true. Treaties can be abrogated, but not without enormous cost in international respect and loss of trade. That wouldn’t just be loss of trade with the EU! Who would trust a country that can’t abide by it’s international obligations? Who, for example, would advance credit to Argentina as they are about to default on their debts for the second time in recent history.

        Much as we were cheated by treasonous politicians the EU treaties were signed by our elected representatives and given royal assent by our head of state. They are, therefore. internationally lawful and binding on the UK. Trying to argue the toss about the people being conned just wouldn’t wash in an international court.

        For some unknown reason the otherwise awful Lisbon Treaty provided a mechanism by which BrExit can be achieved without enormous cost and is a means to rectify the grievous wrongdoing done to us by the political elite since 1972. Exiting the EU will not be a sudden event, whatever happens as it will take time to extract ourselves and to unpick all the EU initiated legislation. We have to be patient and get out of this bear trap with all limbs intact.

      • ian wragg says:

        So if we leave the EU Germany are going to stop selling Mercs and BMW’s to us. France will stop selling us cars and wine etc etc. Rubbish, we are the 2nd largest market for Germany and run a 50% trade deficit. The Lisbon treaty needs agreement by all other nations and although looking fine in principal would probably never work in practice. The EU knows that any nation that leaves will prosper and start a torrent. In 2012 the EU was on about suspending Greece because of the Euro crisis. It’s not a one way street you know. Balls, that’s all that is required. Sadly lacking with these treacherous bastards that run us presently.

      • Sean O'Hare says:

        @Ian

        So if we leave the EU Germany are going to stop selling Mercs and BMW’s to us. France will stop selling us cars and wine etc etc

        If we simply abrogate the treaties then EU member states would have no alternative but to turn back British Goods. The EU has designated ports of entry for goods from EU and named non-EU countries. If we are no longer part of the EU then initially we would be on neither list so customs officials would not be allowed to accept British goods. After many months (the EU bureaucrats don’t move fast under normal circumstances) i don’t doubt that Mercedes, BMW and French vintners will get their way and trade will resume albeit subject to WTO permitted tariffs. Unfortunately by that time there will have been substantial job losses in companies that were reliant on export to the EU. It is simply idiotic to take that risk when Article 50 provides an opportunity for us to leave within two years (unless mutually extended) with a jointly acceptable trade agreement already n place.

    • Jane Davies says:

      If this is the case then the UK should stop making the £50 plus million a day payments to Brussels. But that would take a government with a backbone.

    • DICK R says:

      We will be perfectly within our rights to take up arms if they try to force us to remain part of the EU empire .

  3. Maureen Gannon says:

    Roger I agree with all you said on this thread, however I do wish that Mr Lord had been treated with more respect I do believe he should have been involved in the best ever kept secret,
    I have long admired Mr Carswell but why make bullet’s for the opposition to fire the media will save this up for a rainy day, you only have to listen to the vitriol spewed out by one of the presenters on LBC ,

  4. David says:

    We must remember the words of Cam re someone leaving the cons, they are a despicable fellow, and self defeating, yet when someone leaves another party and joins the cons they are praised and considered wise, so it only works one way for him. Or Labour. Or that other lot.

  5. Stuart Bell says:

    I do believe, having joined UKIP last May, that, possibly 95% of the General public are unaware of this November EU QVR REGULATION!! Upon joining there was 15,000 members, I believe it’s now, in excess of 40+000!!! With internet, almost immediate, communication, the electorate is grasping the Real Meaning of the EU. When voting for Cons, previously, there wasn’t even a Whisper!! In fact I never got any replies to requests for answers!! Upon contacting UKIP, I received more help in the first 2 months than the previous 40 years of Cons!! It’s this kind of thoughtful approach that’s winning a massive amount of new Voters. In fact this month I’ve actually been active recruiting new members in a similar way in which I was drawn to UKIP. Talking about the basic problems that we face in the UK and being able to actually say what we feel and receive advice and news on these issues. Incidentally, it’s easy, what you may ask? Recruiting new members! How many have I this month? 16!!!! No kidding!! It’s Easy when you have GREAT PRODUCT!!

  6. Stuart Bell says:

    With regards to the theme of Douglas Carswell, what’s wrong with changing? We’ve all done it!! Promotion, moving to another Company, better prospects, new products and so on. Now what you’ll find with the Majority of Voters is that they tend to say, “Whatever happens I’m voting for !!!! I’ve been saying to new voters, it’s like looking/listening at web sites offering better prices for energy, banks and so on if you switch now!! Most of us “Stick” with what selected years ago!! So irrespective of THEIR PERFORMANCE/MANIFESTO they go on voting the same!! I SAY THIS WAS OKAY WHEN THE UK was self governing not under the Auspices of the EU. NOW ITS DIFFERENT AND YOU’D BETTER TAKE NOTICE!! Douglas has done this!! Today’s voter has to vote for Today, forget all the past history of Lab, Cons etc!! It’s now a different ‘Ball Game’ this is not about the UK ONLY, ITS THE EU INFLUENCING, NOW FEDERERLISING US INTO SUBMISSION!! Now’s the time to REALLY TAKE THE INFORMED, CURRENT, INTELLIGENT DECISION TO ENSURE THAT THIS ENGLAND/ UK RETAINS ITS OWN SOVEREIGNTY! Forget the Sub Standards Lab & Libs, forget the Cons ‘Empty’ promises! UKIP listen, consider, engage with their own Supporters and continue to Look out for our own country!! UKIP it’s got OUR NAME ON IT!!

    • Mike Stallard says:

      Stuart. If we are going to win this vital debate, we have got to stop SHOUTING and try to do a lot more listening.

      • Stuart Bell says:

        Mike, apologies for any of my text size being unacceptable to your own views. I listen all the time, but I also have a strong opinion and having been a employer engaging with successful businesses, I’m not a yes man and my opinions have been formed from the present evidence of the current political climate. I also know when to stand up and say it as it is. Incidentally, Mike who’s there to listen to? It’s all about money and as an expert business person, just stop our payments and then see who wakes up and listens!! Anyway, Mike, we are here to see results and in engineering it either works or it doesn’t!! The EU needs to be cut off immediately!!

  7. omanuel says:

    In the morning I will submit the manuscript for review that exposes sixty-nine years of intentional government deception about “Solar Energy.”

    https://dl.dropboxusercontent.com/u/10640850/Solar_Energy.pdf

    With kind regards,
    - Oliver K. Manuel
    Former NASA Principal
    Investigator for Apollo

    • omanuel says:

      The manuscript was submitted for publication at ~6:30 am this morning. An implicit self-selection process is thus now in process:

      1. If the 97% consensus community consists of real scientists, they will openly address all of the nine pages of precise experimental measurements that disagree with the Standard Solar Model of Hydrogen-filled stars.

      2. If the 97% consensus community consists only of phony scientists, they will refuse to address any of the nine pages of precise experimental measurements that disagree with the Standard Solar Model of Hydrogen-filled stars.

  8. Mike Stallard says:

    I am totally in favor of complete independence of my country from the shackles of Europe, which I see as the EUSSR.

    So what’s the problem? Well, first of all every single government of whatever stripe (Lib-Lab-Con) loves to be in Brussels being allowed to kiss Mrs Merkel on the cheek (or foot?) They adore arriving like ministers outside No 10 under the arc lights. They are no more going to give that up than Angelina Jolie is going to give up her ticket to the Oscars.

    Secondly, I watched the Independence Debate on Scotland and listened to the rabid claptrap from the audience. I was not encouraged. And that was, we were told, a subject with which the Scottish People were deeply engaged. I regret that most people care more about who is going to be the winner of that trampoline programme than they do about Europe.

    And then there is the Daily Telegraph. And the Mirror. And the Times of London. And the Guardian. And the BBC. And every single civil Servant, whether in Brussels or Whitehall. And the American President and his almighty power. I think that just about covers it.

    Things do not look good for the promised referendum, do they.

  9. Linda Hudson says:

    make no mistake, the British people are awakened, enlightened, and rearing to go, no stopping us now!

  10. Richard111 says:

    I left the UK after Harold Wilson’s ‘pound in your pocket’ speech. I settled in South Africa, married and started a family but the UK Labour government put so much support into the ANC that life there became untenable. And when 18 year old black males were brought into my daughter’s girls school, my daughter was nine years old then, I knew it was time to leave.
    Maggie Thatcher’s performance convinced me it would be okay to return to the UK. Unfortunately there was the John Major debacle followed by the Tony Blair disaster which we are all still paying for. A complete divorce from the EU might save us but sadly we seem to have too many benefit profiteering voters who will ensure Milliband stays in the pound seats.

    • catalanbrian says:

      So Apartheid where the majority of the population is disenfranchised is OK then? I think I can see where you are coming from and it is not a very nice place.

      • Richard111 says:

        I suggest you visit South Africa and you will understand the meaning of the word ‘disenfranchised’. While you are there note what China is up to. If American grain becomes restricted starvation will become a big problem. ‘Free’ South Africa has serious problems. When I left South Africa petrol cost less than 2 Rand a litre, It now costs over 18 Rand a litre.

  11. Christopher Browne says:

    I’ve said it before and I’ll probably have to say it again, holding the referendum in 2017 (if it happens) gives time to import more EU citizens, and added to those already here, may well outvote the outers, we then could have a situation where we stay in on the back of foreign voters.

  12. ian wragg says:

    And CMD wants to import as many as possible before 2017 to ensure we stay in this decaying carcass.

  13. Edward Spalton says:

    Roger ,
    As I recall it, Mr Wilson’s “fundamental renegotiation” and “New deal in Europe” achieved some small POLICY changes but nothing CONSTITUTIONAL. The principal changes were
    1. An increase in the quotas of lamb and butter which we were allowed to import from New Zealand ( with whom we had previously enjoyed free trade in food)

    2. A mechanism called ” the green pound” ( nothing to do with the environment) which mitigated some of the appallingly inflationary effects of the Common Agricultural Policy. It was a different exchange rate with the “unit of account” (ECU – a book keeping ancestor of the euro) which made food from mainland Europe and Ireland cheaper here.

    3. In the 1975 referendum leaflet the Wilson government claimed that they had negotiated the abandonment of EMU ( economic and monetary union) – essentially the euro currency. They must have known it was only deferred but, as Harold Wilson said “a week in politics is a long time”

  14. Richard111 says:

    “”Officials were accused of ‘unacceptable complacency’ after admitting they had no idea where the missing immigrants and failed asylum seekers were.
    Despite being ordered out of the country, many had ‘gone to ground’ and were working in the so-called black economy, illegally claiming benefits and even voting in elections.“”???????
    (my bold)

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2742786/Complacent-Home-Office-loses-175-000-illegal-immigrants-Fresh-humiliation-officials-admit-went-missing-refused-permission-stay.html

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