I’ve just heard the news announced by the Met Office that this is the hottest decade since records began. Now that, of course, is exactly what you’d expect if, like me, you believe that the climate is cyclical, driven by solar and astronomical factors. We have seen a small rise in temperature over the last 100 years – less than 1°C. That’s exactly comparable to the conditions that existed at the beginning of the Roman Optimum around the year 0; it’s exactly comparable to what happened at the beginning of the Medieval Warm Period at about the year 1000, and if that cycle is continued, we would expect the beginning of a new 21st Century Optimum somewhere around the year 2000. That appears to be what we are seeing.
So the Met office may well be right – that we’ve had the hottest decade since records began, although don’t forget that records don’t go back terribly far. It is certainly not as hot as it was during the Medieval Warm Period, it’s not as hot as it was during the Roman Optimum, and it’s not as hot as it was a few thousand years earlier in the Holocene Maxima.
So the message is this: that climate on earth is driven in a pattern of cyclical natural long term variations driven by solar cycles. We’ve seen it before, we are seeing it again. It’s business as usual. Nothing has changed. There’s no need to get excited. Copenhagen is a pathetic and misguided response to a perceived problem that doesn’t exist in reality.