History may look back to the 2009 UN COP 15 Conference in Copenhagen as the high-water-mark of the Great Climate Scam. I have been campaigning for climate realism for years, and for much of that time it’s seemed like a lost cause: now I believe that the tide is turning.
The ponderous UN process of consensus and acclamation was clearly failing to deliver anything substantive in Copenhagen, so the USA, China and a few other countries cobbled together their own Copenhagen Accord, and presented it to the plenary session on a take it or leave it basis — you can have our text, or go home empty-handed. But the Accord itself lacks substantive content. No targets, no verification, no legal framework. Just aspirations and wishful thinking. Some weeks ago I predicted that the best they could hope for at Copenhagen was an agreement to keep talking. That, in effect, is what they have achieved.
Of course Obama, and the Chinese PM, and other leaders, were only too aware that any deal they struck in Denmark had to stand the test of their domestic political processes. Obama is clearly very conscious of the difficulties he will have in getting aggressive climate policies through the Senate. He will recall that the USA signed the Kyoto protocol — but was unable to ratify it. Some of the most aggressive commitments were made by our own Gordon Brown — happy in the knowledge that he will never have to deliver, but hoping that his legacy of extravagant promises will at least be an embarrassment for the next Conservative government.
And all those leaders are aware (or should be) that a majority of their electorates simply don’t believe the doomsters, and certainly aren’t prepared to pay the price of mitigation.
This all comes at a time when the scientific case on which alarmism is based is rapidly crumbling. The implications of the leaked CRU memos are sinking in. These were not just a few casual and thoughtless comments in an off moment. No. They are evidence of a deliberate and sustained campaign of misinformation, designed to achieve nothing less than a revolution in global governance. The phrase “Hide the Decline” has come to be a short-hand for the scandal. Yet it is poorly understood. Many commentators seem to think it refers to the decline in mean global temperatures over the last few years. But that decline is admitted (through gritted teeth), even by the alarmists. The decline the e-mails were referring to is much more fundamental.
For temperature records back in the nineteenth century and earlier, scientists have to rely on “proxies”, since reliable measurements are not available. These proxies may be tree rings, ice cores, sediment layers or whatever. The issue is the overlap between the proxies and the measurements. In the early and mid twentieth century, the proxy data matched observation pretty well. But in the late 20th century, and especially from 1980, the proxies failed to show the sharp increases which were coming from the measured data (which may have been affected by the Urban Heat Island effect, and by some very creative selection and interpolation). So they decided to “hide the decline” (in the proxy data) by simply switching from proxies to measurements at the best point to support their case.
An honest scientist at this point would have said “We have a conflict in the data sets, and no major policy decisions should be based on our temperature data until this conflict is resolved”. But instead they continued to assert the Gospel According to Climate Change, and refused to consider or debate any criticism. The fact is that if the proxies and the measurements disagree, then one or both must be wrong. In which case claims that the rise in temperature is too rapid to be caused by anything other than human action is unsustainable (it was always nonsense — there are many examples in the records of more rapid natural changes). And claims that we are now experiencing “the warmest climate for a thousand years” cannot be sustained either. It was warmer in 1200.
I believe that the US Congress will now demand an independent statistical analysis of the data. That is the least they can do before they agree to cripple the US economy and pauperise their grandchildren. And the data will not sustain that analysis. We have seen the reluctance of world leaders to commit to major emissions reductions even on the assumption that man-made global warming is an established fact. As they come to realise that it is highly suspect, they will see that they cannot continue to press vastly expensive mitigation policies on their reluctant citizens.
On the BBC news summaries this morning (Dec 19th) the two lead stories were the failure of Copenhagen — and the disruption of road, rail and air traffic by exceptionally cold weather. Who says that God lacks a sense of humour?
A few years ago, Britain and America were drawn into war on the basis of a “Dodgy Dossier”. We are now being invited to undertake an even more expensive project, based on a new Dodgy Dossier, this time from the IPCC. But I suspect that in the end, we will come to our senses and avoid making the same mistake again.
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‘Hiding the decline’ is not a secret and is not a distortion of the science, it is simply the best way to merge the two datasets as set out in this widely acknowledged paper written in 1998.
I find the way that you have manipulated the CRU emails as shocking for an elected representative.
So the best way to hide a gross disparity between two data sets (which clearly demonstrates that one or the other must be wrong) is to use the respective bits of each set that best support your case, and pretend that it is one single authentic data set. You’re clutching at straws, Philip.
Thanks Roger, you are clearly demonstrating how you have not read the paper I referenced and the little regard you have for science.
To make it simpler to digest, this video discusses the points in laymans terms (around about the 4min mark).
hi mr Burrows
…Your reference supplied says (in similar words)… ‘the ‘trick’, is to phase out the more unreliable tree ring data, and replace with the more ‘accurate’ temperature readings…’
and….’no one knows why the tree ring data doesn’t follow the temperature data, after 1960′
…Can you explain your point again? (I’m sorry, I’m only a layman.) Personally I would have liked the graph to have included the tree ring data after 1960, as well. (even if it had to be explained in a footnote)
Cheers Chris,
If you don’t have access to the ‘Nature’ archive, then I can recommend this report from M Wilmking and J Singh.
The point I am putting across is that ‘Hiding the decline’:
1.) Is not a secret, it is something that has been discussed in science papers for over a decade. You can look at the bibliography of the paper I have justed cited for evidence of this.
2.) Is only used when confronting a problem that seems to be limited to tree ring data in high latitudes. Thermometers, radiosondes, satellites in all latitudes and tree rings in lower latitudes say that temperatures are increasing. This is discussed explicitly in the aforementioned paper.
3.) That using this as an excuse to say that global warming is not happening is proof that some people will believe anything that fits into their agenda.
I have focussed on this mistake in Rogers article, but I could highlight others if anybody is interested.
Perhaps Roger would like me to proof read his blog postings in advance.
The one thing I can’t ignore is the missing sense of irony in his last paragraph. We were drawn in to the Iraq war by ignoring the advice of the UN weapons inspectors and instead followed the advice of spin doctors. Roger is now ignoring the advice of the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change and instead choosing to listen to the advice of spin doctors.
Ah, but Philip, the UN has learned how to apply spin more unctiously in the last decade.
I’m not sure if it is telling or not that you compare a search for a relatively clear ‘culprit’ like components of WMD weapons systems in a small geographic area with the somewhat more amorphous concept of “CO2 pollution” (as ascribed to those who foresee warming ad infinitum) that seems to be pretty much equally unprovable.
The real parallel is, of course, that Bush Jr. wanted to make a point and Blair the First wanted a ‘war’ in the same way that may Prime Ministers of the UK are persuaded by the History that their standing will be incomplete unless they have ‘a war’ on the their cv. Preferably one they won.
I have to say that to me, though probably not to you, the ‘war’ on Climate Change seems to be much the same argument and is being supported for much the same reasons. It’s a good excuse to ‘do something’.
The UN would not have seen any value accruing to it though the Iraq fiasco until pacified by the Oil for Food responsibility. The conflict was too localised for it to be of long term strategic interest anyway, so it made a stronger statement about the UN’s ‘independence’ by publicly advising that no weapons could be found.
‘Global’ climate change, on the other hand, plays much more to the self appointed role that the UN has developed and had the added benefit of being unprovable either way in the short term and possibly even in the long term. A much more robust hook onto which one can hang one’s hat. And it’s ‘global’, so all can be sucked in.
So your comparison, whilst quite cute, is hardly robust. After all many who ignored the WMD advice buy in to the AGW concept with a vengeance. Are they enacting a penance or are they once again just making their poor decisions by blowing with the wind?