Corby By-Election: It doesn’t have to be Labour

Most of the commentators and the chattering classes seem to think that Labour is a no-brainer for the Corby by-election on November 15th, following the unlamented departure of Louise Bagshawe/Mensch.

After all, it was a Labour seat for years.  Conservatives won it with a small majority (less than 2000) in 2010, but their candidate did a runner in 2012.  Since 2010, the Tories are down in the polls, relative to Labour.  Many voters, including floating voters who may have switched to the Tories in 2010, are disillusioned with the Coalition’s performance.  It’s more than just mid-term blues.  The Tories keep talking down the UK’s prospects, and it’s dawning on voters that while George Osborne may have a plan for the deficit, he seems to have no ideas at all about growth, despite many commentators (including this blog ) offering him low-cost growth policy ideas.

Added to that, voters resent it when they’re forced into a by-election on the basis of the mere caprice of the candidate they elected last time.  More time with her family? Maybe she should have thought of that when she offered herself for selection.  If she’d had a valid reason for going — perhaps a serious illness — they could have forgiven her.  As it is, they feel used by a woman who clearly had no interest in Corby, merely an interest in self-promotion.

They can’t punish Louise, but they can punish the Party that foisted on them a candidate who lacked commitment to the constituency, and let them down.  And they will.

And of course the Lib-Dems will come nowhere.  Hardly worth them fielding a candidate.  Voters know three things about the Lib-Dems.  They’re part of the governing coalition.  They’re petulant spoilers, obsessed with issues that mean nothing to voters.  And they broke their word on student fees.

There is only one party that offers common sense policies on a whole range of issues.  A party that agrees with majority British opinion on Europe, on immigration, on the need for affordable and secure energy supplies.  On the need for lower taxes to stimulate the economy.  A party that can honestly claim not to have contributed to the economic mess we’re in.  And that Party, of course, is UKIP.

I believe that Conservative voters in Corby (and anyone who doesn’t want to see Ed Miliband finding his way to Number Ten) will work out that there’s no point in voting Tory because the Tories can’t win in Corby.  What we need to do is to persuade the anti-Miliband vote to coalesce around UKIP.  Then Corby can do two things: stop Labour.  And create history by sending the first elected UKIP MP to Westminster.

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55 Responses to Corby By-Election: It doesn’t have to be Labour

  1. ogga1 says:

    Morning Roger,
    it is certainly going to be a testing ground for UKIP,and for what it is worth i am in complete agreement with your comment.

  2. Gary Rickard says:

    UKIP have everything to gain by fielding a credible candidate for Corby. Even if it loses, it will prove to Cameron that UKIP can take such a share of Conservative votes that they will ensure his brand of ‘cast iron turned to rust’ conservatism cannot win a by-election seat or a general election.

    In terms of getting UKIP’s message across and demonstrating its influence, this is a gift too good to waste.

  3. Charles Wardrop says:

    Agreed, Mr Helmer!
    Despite having been a lifelong Tory, UKIP policies, unlike those of any other Party, suit me.
    Suggest you merge and favourably influence today’s wretched non-Tories for the better.
    If you field a Candidate where we live, Perth, we’ll vote UKIP, unless offered a similar-thinking Conservative.

  4. Conservatives have capped immigration and takne the lowest earners out of tax altogether. The British people are not obsessed with the EU as UKIP are.

    • They’ve promised to cap immigration. That’s not the same thing. Neither the British people nor UKIP are “obsessed with the EU”. But 80% of voters want an EU referendum and 70% will vote “Out”. Mind you, it would be pretty fair to be obsessed with a policy that’s costing around 6% of GDP for no discernible benefit.

      • But 80% of voters want an EU referendum and 70% will vote “Out”. It’s going to happen anyway so voting UKIP is still completely pointless. UKIP’s sole purpose is to stop Tories getting elected.

    • ogga1 says:

      Could your sirname be rumpy pumpy or burosso per chance.

      • David Rosser-Owen says:

        More likely Cameron, I should think.

      • Riverside view: I would suggest two “points” for UKIP, which is not pointless at all. First of all, I agree with UKIP’s common-sense policies, and given that all three of the old parties take much the same view of the EU, I am delighted to be able to be with a party which thinks what I think (and what the people think). Second, we are doing a vital job holding Cameron’s feet to the fire and demanding a referendum, which probably would not “happen anyway”, given that all three old parties oppose it.

    • Mark Porter says:

      Complete nonsense, most people at all levels that I speak to, in my locals, at work etc. are all very concerned about Europe. Sadly the British people are not obsessed with Politics, and therelies the problem because inertia has set in.

    • blingmun says:

      “But 80% of voters want an EU referendum and 70% will vote “Out”. It’s going to happen anyway so voting UKIP is still completely pointless. ”

      But it keeps NOT happening. That’s the problem. The parties have a stranglehold on the political system and a small clique of oddballs control the parties. Consequently little that goes on in the Westminster bubble has any resemblance to the wishes of ordinary people. A large vociferous minority of about 10 million has been not only ignored for the past 20 years over the EU but mocked and forced fed more and more EU drip by drip year after year. We have found through painful experience that voting for the main parties results in an increase in the powers of the EU. We want less of it and we are sick of the lies and the empty promises. The Conservative Party has betrayed its core vote and deserves nothing less than of political annihilation.

    • George Morley says:

      Can you quote the figures to substantiate that claim on both counts
      I don’t think so.? Do you agree with the millions being poured into the EU on a daily basis to the detriment of potential trade with the rest of the world. And when are they going to have a full and comprehensive audit ?
      Answers on a postcard to Roger Helmer.

  5. Tom says:

    The Tories currently have a majority of about 2000 in Corby. Louise Bagshawe actually underperformed at the 2010 election, gaining a smaller swing than the national average – much like the rest of her A-list counterparts. Perfectly winnable for the Tories, unless UKIP manages to split the vote, in which case you’d be gifting it to Labour, who no doubt would use its additional vote in the Commons to vote against your stated political interest (albeit well within your blatant electoral interest).

    • Little Black Sambo says:

      Is gifting the same as giving?

    • Gary Rickard says:

      Gifting the seat to Labour might well be a price worth paying to show ‘Deluded Dave’ that the direction that he is taking is doomed and that he needs to get real before he gifts the entire country to Labour. More importantly, UKIP can never advance by not fighting.

    • ukiplocal says:

      Your posting appears to imply some affiliation of ideas or policies between the Conservative Party and UKIP, whereas I can see none. The three old Westminster parties are as one on all the issues which UKIP puts in the shop window. We know why and we know they will not admit it, but for so long as they continue to promote political integration with the EU there can be no choice but UKIP.

      • Neil Craig says:

        I think it is unethical of those who support the first past the post system to then complain on those occasions when (an increasing number for the Tories) they don’t benefit from it. Tom if you don’t like the effect of “splitting the vote” then do something about it, like joining UKIP. On what important policies do you feel your party is more sensible than ours that could prevent you doing so?

        This is simply one of a large number of those policies on which UKIP in which there is a cosy consensus between the conservative and labour parties and on which UKIP is clearly more progressive, honest and democratic.

    • Your argument — “letting Labour in” — would apply to ANY new party. By implying that you have to choose between Labour and Tory, you have a recipe for pemanent political stasis.

  6. Gary Rickard says:

    Real conservatives are concerned about the EU and are leaving the Conservative Party in droves. The Conservative leadership may not seem obsessed by the EU but they are obsessed with offering it the other cheek.

  7. maureen gannon says:

    Well now is the time for UKIP to prove it can do it , Labour will want a resounding vote,”Call me Dave will do a wringing of the hands job” Millepede will grin like Mr Bean , the only party with anything real to prove is UKIP so paint the town yellow and mauve its there for the taking. Good Luck..

  8. Mr Davies says:

    “Conservatives have capped immigration” oh yeah, at about 1 million per annum – Wake up and smell the beverage of your choice.
    Cameron is another one-termer like Brown.
    UKIP is the only rational choice left and let’s face it, they can’t do any worse than the labour or tory parties.

  9. dan says:

    Helmer or Farage should stand.

    • Anonymous says:

      Farage should save his powder and focus on building up a profile in a winnable seat rather than rushing all over the country at the whiff of a hope.

      Why not use the by-election to demonstrate that there’s more to UKIP than Nigel And His Mates?

  10. david kendrick says:

    UKIP’s record in bye-elections is so poor that even a good showing would be a big ask. An able and high-profile candidate would be a good start (cf. who did UKIP back for Mayor of London?).
    The British people have no interest in the EU. They care about some of the negative consequencies of our belonging to the EU, but the problem is that all these disadvantages seem to be an indirect, and not a direct result of our membership. That makes the UKIP message an unbelievably difficult sell, especially to the great unwashed.

  11. Pingback: Corby by-election: a response to Helmer « Forty-Two

  12. donnaedmunds says:

    It doesn’t have to be, but it probably will. But second place would work just as well for UKIP: http://donnaedmunds.wordpress.com/2012/08/13/responsetohelmer/

  13. Ralph says:

    To win UKIP’s vote would have to go up from circa 2% to around 40%. You really think that’s possible?

    As on paper you have no hope of winning the seat then logically you should be telling your voters to support the mainstream party that is closest to yours, not splitting the right of centre vote.

  14. me says:

    I agree with most of UKIP’s policies, but the thing that really guarantees I vote UKIP instead of tory is your stand on “Green” issues. People are beginning to understand we’re bankrupting ourselves for a scam. WInd Farms are symbols of Tory failure and you need to make UKIP’s policies in this area more widely known.

  15. ciconia says:

    The tories do seem extraordinarily comfortable with the Libdem form of socialism, at least at minister level. One could almost see the tories in a coalition with labour, there’s so little between them- all tax and spend, regardless of the rhetoric.
    And all the main parties seem determined to sell us out to the EUSSR fairly soon, as if that path to doom is the only one available.

  16. neilfutureboy says:

    I think UKIP should be looking for a condidate who is ex-Labour rather than ex-Tory (I know we are short of such). Then campaign primarily against Labour. If we do that and the Tories don’t the Tory vote will come to us automatically anyway because we will be seen to be serious players not spoilers.

  17. UKIP wont be supported as the campaign against them will expose their allegiance to Palestinian terrorists though their Palestine support group within the Party

  18. ian says:

    The sheeple will vote for the most useless as usual.

  19. George Morley. says:

    Yes Clegg and co were against the freezing of a minority of pensioners who are mostly in the Commonwealth countries and were going to do something about but but like Cameron and the referendum they now have a loss of memory. Even Steve Webb who supported an EDM to end the freezing is now desperately trying to defend this discriminatory policy and he is in the perfect place to remove it. I would like to see you get a good candidate for Corby. Regrettably I have no vote now being in Canada but I should have one and from what I can hear from friends they want out of the EU and UKIP in. Of course Blair stopped my vote which I should have as the government still control my pension and all expats should have access to UK MP’s by right.

  20. machokong says:

    The trouble with UKIP is the people they field, often they’re so unelectable.

  21. maureen gannon says:

    Ukip has to be the answer Dave has said he will not back leaving the EU the sheep will follow the Libs won’t even listen and as for millepede saying he will give us a referendum he knows full well that if the election is after 2014 we have lost the chance because of Lisbon , On 1st November 2014, QMV (Qualified Majority Voting), which cannot be vetoed by any national government, will replace the national parliamentary jurisdiction of its members; Brussels will legislate in almost every aspect of both national and international policy,The media doesnt talk about this indeed I haven’t heard from anyone in power or the media informing the suckers [sorry fruedian slip] people of this atrocity, I am sure Roger will say if I have it wrong..

  22. kick him in the ballot box says:

    David Cameron says we’ll leave the EU-ish one day and then the next day (or even later the same day) says something quite different like it would not be in Britain’s interests to leave. With little to go on we might as well judge by actions. In my case that makes no difference, still a fully paid up UKIP supporter.

  23. Until voters wake up to reality and see that the three elected parties at Westminster mainly Conservative, Labour and the safety valve Lib Dems are part of the controlling ‘Establishment’. Meaning there is no choice between them. These parties no more represent the people than the man in the moon represents the martians. UKIP is now the only choice for peoples future. Unless you do not want a better future?

  24. Sprog says:

    That Miliband ids just a puppet.
    have a look at this

  25. Robert Barnsley says:

    Operationenglishvote, I don’t know where you got that bit about UKIP favouring Palastinian terrorists from. They’re pro Israeli. Haven’t you heard of UKIP Friends of Israel?

  26. Interesting comments and interesting analysis of the situation, what I find amusing is that the analysis is carried out by someone who doesn’t even live in Corby and UKIP are fielding a candidate that doesn’t live in Corby either but I do agree that the Tories have seriously let the town down and Louise should have considered her personal situation prior to putting herself forward for public service, the other reality is that Labour have mismanaged Corby for years and have become the career & elitist politicians that the tories & liberals are and all of them are totally out of touch with the normal man or woman in the street but there is another alternative and that alternative is The English Democrats, Not left, Not Right Just English, The ED’s are fighting for an english assembly to bring fairness and openness to UK politics, to end this skewed situation that our semi devolution brings, to end the career & family politics of the main parties and bring common sense & honest politics back into the arena

    • PitPony says:

      Are you serious? English Democrats in Corby? Have you ever met anyone from Corby? There are people born and lived all their lives there who have a Scottish accent. It is a strange place and it is not English

      • Well hate to burst your bubble🙂, Corby is actually in England, it is a great town with a fantastic manufacturing background that was built by a Scottish workforce many of whom actually walked all the way to Corby from Scotland, Corby is now a very vibrant & modern town and the mix of people from all over the United Kingdom make it the success story that it is, Maybe you should visit and then hopefully you will see that your perceived ideas of Corby are very wrong.

  27. Your absolutely right Roger, it doesn’t have to be Labour or anyone else form the Lab/Lib/Con career establishment that is our modern political system but equally it wont be UKIP either, I appreciate that you are the one running around formulating other policies and copying our’s (thanks for that lol) but reality is your a one trick pony and the only real & credible alternative to the career politicians now is for a fresh change and yes your again right Corby is the test ground for that signal to Westminster that the peoples of the United Kingdom have had enough of their sovereignty being sold down the EU river but equally they have had enough of being treated unfairly which is why the English democrats will win this by election because the reality is very clear, The English Democrats aren’t left, aren’t right, aren’t racist but fight for common sense & fairness and thats what the pople living in England want regardless of their background and they also want the UK preserved & protected and its only the English Democrats that will deliver that promise because we stand by our principles and we back them up with cast iron guarantees unlike any other political party in this election.

    • Know any English says:

      Why don’t you know when to use “you’re” instead of “your” – I think the people of Corby would prefer to be represented by a party with a basic grasp of the English language.

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