Scottish Vote: “A YES vote is forever”

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So says David Cameron.  But as in so many things, he could well be wrong.  Most economic commentators expect a very negative reaction to a Yes vote, if that’s what happens on  September 18th.  This could happen quickly: indeed it is clearly happening already.  Funds are moving out of Scotland; investment and house purchases are stalling; mortgagees are worrying about the future status and currency of their debt.

And of course, pace David Cameron, nothing is forever.  The original and hugely successful union of Scotland and England has lasted 300+ years, and that’s a good long time.  But if the Scots vote Yes, it won’t have been “forever”.  And in this modern, internet age, things happen so much more quickly.

The European Union has set a key precedent here which Alex Salmond would do well to keep in mind.  On June 2nd1992, the Danes voted No to the Maastricht Treaty.  But on May 18th 1993, they voted again, and reversed the decision.  The first decision lasted less than a year – just 350 days, if my arithmetic is right.

Then came Ireland, and the Lisbon Treaty.  The Irish voted No on June 12th 2008.  This decision, at least, saw its first birthday.  But not its second.  On October 2nd 2009, the Irish (after a disgracefully biased campaign) voted Yes, reversing the earlier decision.

It seems to me that something rather similar will happen in Scotland.  There are at least three good reasons to expect a re-think.

A narrow margin.  Surely a major constitutional decision should command widespread support – not the one or two per cent edge that opinion polls are predicting?  In Ted Heath’s weasel phrase, such a decision requires “the full-hearted consent of the people”.   We can argue about the threshold that would constitute full-hearted consent, but 51% it ain’t.

Economic consequences:  I and many commentators believe that there will be immediate and very visible negative economic consequences of a Yes decision.  As those consequences become visible, that 53% advantage could rapidly turn to 75/25 against in the polls.  How could Scottish independence proceed on that basis?

For what it’s worth, my bet is that Scotland would muddle on with “the pound in your pocket”, but without any formal currency union agreement (and as Mark Carney said yesterday, “A currency union is incompatible with sovereignty”), effectively using a foreign currency over which they have no control.  They will exclude themselves from EU membership the day they celebrate “Independence” (whether you think that’s a good thing or not).  They simply don’t meet the criteria to start negotiating to re-join (for which you need a currency and a central bank).  The consequences of using another currency will be dire for households and businesses.  (Ask Greece).  Scotch whisky exports to the EU will be subject to the Common External Tariff.

A pig in a poke: As the No campaign has been relentlessly repeating, in many respects the Scottish people don’t know what they’re voting for.  It is quite scandalous that Salmond has failed to set out detailed and credible plans on the currency, on the debt, on EU membership.  A Yes vote is surely little more than an authority to negotiate.  In that negotiation process, the answers to these questions will become clear, and the Scottish people may well take fright.  Are they to have no say on the outcome of the negotiations, and on Scotland’s proposed new status in the world?  That seems to me inconceivable, especially as (I predict) when the Scots see the detail of the deal, they won’t like it at all.

No.  Cameron is wrong.  If the Scots vote Yes on Thursday (and we in UKIP hope they don’t), I predict a new referendum, and a resounding NO, within a couple of years.

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36 Responses to Scottish Vote: “A YES vote is forever”

  1. Me_Again says:

    Being really selfish here, if they vote yes then UKIP’s job becomes that much easier in my humble opinion. Labour will certainly struggle to get a majority or even parity but a locked parliament with UKIP MPs holding the balance of power becomes somewhat more likely.
    As I say, it isn’t a wish, it’s a note to ones selfishness.

    • tony leatham says:

      Then I’m selfish too as I agree with you. Also, our (England’s) tax burden will I suspect be lower, and Miliband almost certainly will lose in 2015.

      Plus all those nasty, aggressive, thuggish nationalists are eliminated from our (i.e. English) society.

      I also think it a scandal that the Yes campaign is offering “devo max” without a democratic mandate from the citizens of the remaining union to do so. For me, it should be stay as you are (which is massively advantageous to the benefit hungry Scots population) or bugger off.

      I didn’t use to think this way – I bitterly lament the break up of the union, but with sober reflection on the issue, including the unforgettable behaviour of the Nats, I’ve changed my mind.

      • Me_Again says:

        I can’t disagree with much Tony, the overt bribery of Westminster to keep the Scots in, Jees if I were them I’d be thinking, ‘You can’t buy me mate!’
        Imagine if the EU swamped us with ‘leaders’ begging us to stay in and made all sorts of offers of finance and support with the rest of Europe looking on and saying. ‘How can they do that with my money?’ ‘What about us why don’t we get those powers?’

        Go or stay, it’s their choice but stay and look at reduced subsidy not bloody Devo max which is really ‘hand out max’

  2. Anne Palmer says:

    It is not that easy for “Scotland” to ‘come out of the “Union” of the United Kingdom of Great Britain And Northern Ireland. Some seem to be forgetting the Members of the Commonwealth that also to have their say. Too much for me to go in to here although I have written article re this matter years ago now. Plus of course their sworn allegiance is indeed to the present wearer of the Crown. Etc.

  3. Anne Palmer says:

    Perhaps because the school I went to was red-hot on ALL of us at that time knowing our Common Law Constitution and the reason we were fighting in that last war- and why we were being bombed to Hell and Back as the saying was in those days.

  4. Anne Palmer says:

    Without doubt our present Government must surely also realise that if the people of Scotland decide they want out of the rest of the United Kingdom-all the people in the rest of the United Kingdom should also “have their say for it does indeed affect each and every one here in the rest of the United Kingdom” Each and every one of us have to be involved in order to save the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland and the Commonwealth for future Generations..
    We then come to the problem of whether Treaties signed by the then Government of the United Kingdom of Great Britain and all the Treaties (Lodged with the Vienna Convention on the laws of Treaties- in the United Nations) having ratified as a United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland would still ‘stand’, even though the UK as it is at present would no longer exist and as such, would WE perhaps no longer be in the European Union?

    • Richard111 says:

      Well said Anne. The EU will be short changed and everything must be renegotiated.

      • Me_Again says:

        Richard, Anne. It isn’t going to happen. Treaties mean nothing to the Westminster and EU elite unless they are used as an excuse for not doing something.
        In this case if someone says ‘look you can’t do that because of this treaty’, TPTB will just ignore the inconvenient clauses. They did with bank bailouts, they did with the rape of Cyprus and the gang rape of Greece. These people ignore rules which inconvenience them, why would they behave differently now?

  5. John Corby says:

    There is a strong parallel to the situation with Quebec here in Canada. Referendum after referendum leading to continued uncertainty. Many believe the separatists merely seek more power for their province (a strategy that is working – as it seems to be in Scotland). The uncertainty is economically damaging to Canada and can only be resolved by separation. A Yes vote in Scotland would be the best outcome for the rest of the UK if the British people can overcome the romantic mental hurdle of breaking up the UK. Quebecers want “sovereignty-association”. Scotland will likely seek the same arrangement. There need not be a new Hadrianic border unless England chooses to implement one to punish the Scots. Let the Scots choose their destiny and if they change their minds after separation, let them buy their way back into the UK, but only if they renounce their separate identity and forget about devolution.

  6. Anne Palmer says:

    So we just allow one temporary leader of Scotland, (Known by the European Union, as one of “Its” REGIONS) to destroy the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland-forever, through Alec Salmond’s present wish to withdraw from the rest of the United Kingdom, thus destroying something that Hitler in all those years of War COULD NOT DO, even through the terrible bombing that Sctolnd had in that last war. It was not just London, Mancherster, Coventry and other Cities in the United Kingdom that had very heavy bombing, it was Scotland and its people that also went through terrible, terrible bombing at that time.

    Our Government could withdraw from the EU for a start and begin to Govern this country in the way it should be Governed. I have no idea why we keep paying any one of those that sit on those green seats in our House of Commons when all they can do is just obey the same EU TREATIES they have ratified without asking the people before any Treaty was indeed accepted. We should also remember that one Prime Minister told the people before that 1975 REFERENDUM took place “That there would be no loss of essential Sovereignty” if they voted to remain in the then EEC. Just exactly how much sovereignty do we have left now, eh?
    I hope our PM and others did well when they went to Scotland, sadly, they left it a bit late and all of it is indeed because of being in the EU, yet the EU looks upon Scotland, not as a Nation or Country in its own Right, but as a REGION of the European Union. For confirmation of that, it is all in ‘their Hansard’,. See the Scottish Parliament on 22nd May 2001.when members from the European Union’s Committee of the Regions attended in which was said that, “as far as the Scottish people are concerned, Scotland is a “Country”, the Scottish people are “nation”, but Mr Dammeyer explained that from the European point of view Scotland is like a Region of the European Union.

    • Richard111 says:

      Scotland with a population of just over five and a quarter million will be nothing more than a banana republic if they go independent.

      • Me_Again says:

        Iceland with a quarter of a million doesn’t grow bananas, Singapore with a pop about the same as Scotland or slighly more isn’t a banana republic. Uruguay could be but isn’t and has 3 and a bit million, Jamaica has a pop of 2.7 million and does grow bananas but isn’t a banana republic, Ireland has the same population so is it too small to survive too?

        They could do it, it won’t be easy but yes they could do it. Same as we aren’t too small to leave the EU which is what they keep telling us.

    • Me_Again says:

      Anne, sometimes it’s not about history, sometimes it’s about looking forward. Hitler, the Kaiser, Napoleon are all history. What happens next week as Roger has said, is not irrevocable. Nothing is irrevocable if the people will it so. Same applies to the treaties that bind us to the EU.
      Let the Scots go for a year or two. During that time we can take the best advantage of the absence of 45 Labour MPs to make sure Millibrain doesn’t get in, Cameron gets about the same amount of MPs and the Lib Dems are hung out to dry as UKIP gets 20+ MPs and holds the balance of power.
      We then have our referendum, Cameron will have repatriated the cube root of b*gger all and so the people will call the bluff and out we go.
      A year later there’s a forced referendum in Scotland to rejoin the UK, the UK has a referendum to see whether we want them back and we say yes. Job done and I can retire and let the youngsters in the party get on with it.

      • Anne Palmer says:

        If the people of Scotland decide to separate from the rest of the UK, it is and will sadly be for all time coming, for the Treaties that bound them together with the rest of the UK will no longer be there-those treaties from those hundreds of years ago and which WARS to keep them, did so, until today’s weak Politicians paid foreigners to Govern us, as long of course, that those presently in the House of Commons got paid-will mean nothing to any of us any more. There would be absolutely no point in taking any one of them back-for there would be none that would trust them at all.

        As for the Conservatives holding the Promised REFERENDUM IF they ever get into power again-the joke of the year I should think- and I admit-I stupidly used to vote Conservative-(Although I have never been a member of any Political Party or Organisation and never will be) mainly because of that truly GREAT Conservative Prime Minister that brought us safely through that last war.

        You say, “Let the Scots go for a year or two”. Have you bothered to see what the EU has in store for all of us for 2020, 2030 and I think Roger also knows-I should think- that the EU has already a couple of legislation re the Environment for 2050. How does The EU know what the enviroment will be like in 2050? A UK Government could hold a referendum before the next General Election if they truly wanted to, and you know it. If Scotland departs from the rest of the United Kingdom-it will be for all time coming.

      • Me_Again says:

        You missed the point completely Anne. But hey, that’s your choice.

  7. DICK R says:

    Beware the next move by the left ,cheered on by Brussels will be the balkanisation of England.

    • ian wragg says:

      No doubt cheered along by the LibLabCON. CMD will use Devo Max to split England into regions as per his masters bidding. The fact that we are now aware of the \EU’s intentions could make it a tad difficult for him.

  8. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Mr Helmer…John Redwood indicates UKIP may go along with DEVO max.. Is that the case?

    He indicates it here…about 10 comments down

    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2014/09/11/mr-redwoods-intervention-during-prime-ministers-questions-10-sept/#comments

  9. Bernard Hough says:

    The break up of the UK was an edict from the EU many years ago, if I remember correctly it was about 12.
    They said then that the UK would be broken down into four regions, Scotland: England: Wales and the Ridings of Yorkshire.
    Since then this has been slowly carried out by some of our own treacherous politicians, Blair and company I think started the ball rolling.being rewarded with high profile jobs within the EU for their services.
    I can only assume that we are being paid back for helping to stop the formation of a German European Empire in 1939.
    United we Stand Divided we Fall.
    How long before the base for the EU is moved from Brussels to Berlin?
    Angela Merkel is succeeding where Hitler failed and she hasn`t had to fire a shot!
    Our car production has gone. Has BMW/Mercedes/Volkswagen etc been taken over?
    We are told we have to have the likes of windfarms, then they sell them to us! the list is long.
    Immigration via the EU directives I think is done to overpopulate our island and dilute the Britishness that was present in WWII.
    I hope the Scottish people don`t help Salmond complete the first part of the EU edicts.
    His reward will be waiting within the EU.

    • catalanbrian says:

      Dear oh dear! I am quite astonished that anybody could think this up, let alone believe it.

      • Anne Palmer says:

        Actually, Bernard Hough has got it absolutely RIGHT!

      • Flyinthesky says:

        Some of us see the actual reality, not the one that’s presented.
        The UK will be broken down into autonomous regions. The autonomy part is they will be free to implement the directives of the eu, within those constraints it will niether local or democratic. There will be some choice however, what shade, within limits, that you can paint the town hall door, circa mid blue and what size eu rag you can fly on top of it.
        You are what I call, and I know a few, the eu ideal citizen. believe everything, question nothing. I do hope you manage to emerge from that cocoon you inhabit before they come to tread on it. But hey that’s the master stroke of the eu, they don’t tread on it they keep applying pressure to the end of it, one day you’ll be bursted out and find yourself in a whole new alien reality, problem is the cocoon will be destroyed and there will be no way back into it.
        Bernard looks you just see, what you’re meant to.

      • catalanbrian says:

        What is it about you people who see German bogey men around every corner?

      • Flyinthesky says:

        Brian,
        I don’t see, as such, German bogey men. What I see is inept bureaucrats carving themselves an empire at our expense for their own vested interest. Without the eu most of these people would become again what they really are, self aggrandising, opinionated, loud mouthed nobodies. I am a great fan of the “concept” of the eu but the opportunity for self aggrandizement has overtaken all reality. It’s 90% too great in scope and 99% run by the wrong people.
        Consider the regulations on cabbage, must have cost thousands if not hundreds of thousands, I’m sure you’ve seen the analogies with the US constitution on the complexity of regulation. They just can’t help themselves 26.911 words!! The reality requirement is 7 !! “is it poisonous, does it taste nice” You can’t build an empire on 7 words and it’s an empire that is desired.

        Considering that the majority of nations within the membership are net recipients what we have is not a democracy it’s an ineptocracy:

        Ineptocracy (in-ep-toc’-ra-cy) – a system of government where the
        least capable to lead are elected by the least capable of producing,
        and where members of society least likely to succeed, are rewarded with goods paid for by the confiscated wealth of a diminishing number of producers.

        If the hands are out the recipients are always going to vote for someone to fill them.
        The culmination will inevitably be the lowest common denominator.

        It plays well to those who look at the fluffyworld perspective, the reality is it’s self constrictive and self destructive.

        If I were to hazzard, I would guess your position is placed between the unreal and impossible fluffy perspective, but you can only circumnavigate human nature with legislation for a finite amount of time, and of course you own, “catalan”brian’s self interest.
        Anything and everything that the eu has achieved, tongue in cheek, could have been achieved quicker,cheaper and better without it. It’s a parasite.

      • Flyinthesky says:

        Addendum: Parasite, The eu fulfills all the definitions, The evolved skill of the parasite is you don’t realise it’s presence……… till it kills you!
        Once the eu is addressed there are more parasitic oganisms that will require our attention.
        Trust me, or not, there are a lot of them.
        It’s a bit like religion, unwavering belief is the easy ride, I wish I had it but I don’t, I was born to question, once you look at the numbers and the realities they just don’t add up.
        N.B. I’m not trying to be nasty, combatative or indeed derisory at all, I just despair of people who take all of it on face value. All is not how it’s presented.

      • Me_Again says:

        Agree with all you say except the parasite bit. The best parasites do not kill their host, they simply manipulate it into providing the best environment for it. Just like the EU. Best example is a virus I suppose, it takes over the host cell’s entire production and replication systems in order to create thousands of copies of itself, only then does it tell the cell to die and thus releases all the copies. Meanwhile the host remains ignorant of its presence for the most part.

    • Ex-expat Colin says:

      Thats most of it Bernard…add incompetence and greed.

      And to think while I was in Germany for 7 years I envied a lot of their living conditions etc. This place (UK) was a gloomy, cold and strike ridden dump. So the Common Market and eventual fall of the Berlin Wall seemed fantastic. Not quite was it…the CM was a complete lie. Like my BMW’s though and unlike Rovers did not come with dead cats stitched in.

      The EU will be the dead end onestop shop for Scotland without a doubt.

      • Anne Palmer says:

        I/we visited East and West Berlin when the WALL was still up, and I realised instinctively, that as long as that Berlin Wall remained in tact and divided Berlin, all would be well. If however, that wall came down, then another take-over of the continent of Europe would begin once more. Sadly, it has come to be.

    • Bernard Hough says:

      Just a little addition to “Flyinthesky”`s EU cabbages comment.
      I presume their latest brilliant idea of reducing the wattage of particular pieces of domestic equipment seems to them to make sense and save the planet.
      If my vacuum cleaner has less suction I shall have to use it for longer, if my kettle is a lower wattage it will take longer to boil, if my hair dryer is lower wattage it will take longer to dxry my hair etc. etc. etc.But to them all that matters is that they appear to be earning their fantastic salaries.
      These have to be paid out of the millions paid in membership fees made by each EU member.
      Today Scotlands is paid out of the app. £48,000,000 per day that the UK pays, who will pay the Scottish peoples share if they `go it alone`?
      To all intents and purposes so far as I can see dead money!

  10. Mike Stallard says:

    Mr Cameron got UKIP very badly wrong. Roger, you may have human weaknesses, but you are most certainly not a fruitcake! How should have united, not divided the conservatives.

    He got Mr Salmond wrong too. Yup, he’s a fraud and (Charles Moore in the Telegraph) a “charlatan”. But he has run a blisteringly successful campaign. He should have called the man’s bluff a lot earlier.

  11. Sean O'Hare says:

    It is quite scandalous that Salmond has failed to set out detailed and credible plans..

    Unfortunately UKIP are equally lacking in a detailed plan for BrExit. How about adopting a ready made one such as FleXcit ?

    http://www.eureferendum.com/documents/BrexitPamphlet001.pdf

  12. Flyinthesky says:

    Much as I would like to see the union remain intact I see it as a potential flux generator and as such I would like a Yes vote. The UK and the eu politicians have become far too comfy in their chairs, I hasten to add these are directors chairs not representatives chairs. As long as we are reluctant, often by inferred and mostly erroneous dire consequences to change something nothing is going to change.
    One of the definitions of stupidity is to continue to do the same thing and expect a different outcome. They have the game and as long as we let them keep it they’ll play it.
    A change gives rise to an opportunity, no change means certainty, that certainty is our continuing and slow demise. I really hoped we were better than that.
    The corporate position is not prophesising, how they portray it, the consequences, they are directing the consequences.
    They’re not directing the consequences for our benefit but their own.
    “Those who sacrifice freedom for security…………………… I’m sure we all know the rest.

  13. cosmic says:

    According to John Redwood, a yes result, even by one vote, would be something the UK government was obliged to honour, and wheels would be set in motion to negotiate towards the repeal of the Act of Union in a timely way. Part of this would be interim arrangements to exclude Scottish MPs. Mr Redwood does not seem one to indulge in mischievous speculation and wild talk, especially over such a sensitive matter.

    I have no doubt that a yes vote would have been based on carefully fostered misconceptions, particularly the ideas that a currency union with the rest of the UK would be inevitable whatever Westminster politicians and economic experts say, and that entry into the EU could be quickly arranged without so much as a blip, for a variety of reasons none of which make any sense. Disillusionment would set in when it was realised that those disputing these rosy assumptions, and were dismissed as scaremongering and bullying, were merely telling the truth.

    Given the attitude of the UK government, that they would be honour bound to accept the result, and make immediate arrangements, and that the SNP’s very reason for being is Scottish independence (which they could hardly say they were committed to and had campaigned energetically for for years, but having secured it, didn’t want just yet), I don’t see any way in which the horse wouldn’t have bolted.

  14. Anne says:

    How could anyone in all honesty try to alter our long standing Common Law Constitution? Two World Wars were fought and won so that the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland could continue to Govern through and by its very own Common Law Constitution. You all, each and every one of you should fight to keep it, or you lose it forever. Many gave their lives for such as the Act of Settlemenent and Act of Union-they are the GLUE that holds the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland together. Many gave their lives for them-all should remember that, for if none of you have never been in a World War-I can tell you exactly what it is like.

    Re your last sentence Roger. No REFERENDUM, UKIP must put up enough candidates for us to vote into that House of Commons in 2015.-NO LATER-AND I AM NOT EVEN IN UKIP. It matters not if none have ever governed before, for lets face actual facts. ALL THOSE WE HAVE ELECTED INTO ALLEGED GOVERNMENT SINCE WE JOINED THE EU, HAVE ONLY OBEYED EEC/EC/EU ORDERS SINCE WE JOINED WHAT IS NOW THE EUROPEAN UNION. And our own Common Law Constitution forbids us so doing. “…all usurped and foreign power and authority…may forever be clearly extinguished, and never used or obeyed in this realm. …no foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate…shall at any time after the last day of this session of Parliament, use, enjoy or exercise any manner of power, jurisdiction, superiority, authority, preeminence or privilege…within this realm, but that henceforth the same shall be clearly abolished out of this realm, for ever.”

  15. Anne says:

    Do any of you remember this? Debates in the House of Commons. From HC Deb 31 July 1961 vol 645 cc928-42928
    §Sir D. Walker-Smith “Is my right hon. Friend able to tell the House—and I hope that he will be able to do so—that his object in negotiation will be to get a basic modification of the Treaty so as to remove the possibility of any surrender of sovereignty on a significant scale by this country? If that be his object, does he think that it is possible to achieve that under Article 237, having regard to the fact that the wording of that Article appears to contemplate only procedural or consequential adaptations as distinct from basic modification?
    §The Prime Minister, “All these questions, of course, we will discuss in our two-day debate. I hope that we may be able to negotiate an arrangement which will be acceptable to this country and accepted by the Commonwealth and by the rest of Europe. It may well be that we shall fail, but I want to suggest to the House that the risk and dangers of failure are very great.
    §Mr. Shinwell “Running away, that is all the right hon. Gentleman does. End of quote-and look where we are now. in great debt perhaps by paying two full to the Brim Houses in our Parliament, that can only obey FOREIGNERS AND PAYING BILLIONS OF POUNDS EACH AND EVERY YEAR TO BE IN “The EU Club”. OVER A £TRILLION IN DEBT I BELIEVE!

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