The Brexit Referendum

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The first thing to say about Cameron’s promise of a Brexit referendum is that he would never have offered it without UKIP’s stunning success in the 2014 euro-elections, where we became the leading party in terms of vote share and number of MEPs.  Of course Cameron was also under pressure within his own party, but it is clear that the rise and rise of UKIP focused his mind on the issue.

So he has promised to seek “reform” of the EU.  He seems unaware of (or unconcerned about) the fact that for forty years, British politicians have argued that “we should stay in the EU and fight for reform”, and yet have abysmally failed to achieve any meaningful reform.  Harold Wilson in 1975 claimed to have a new deal, but his few cosmetic changes are long forgotten: the dogs have barked, and the EU juggernaut has moved on.  The EU simply doesn’t do reform.

Nor have there been meaningful reforms in recent years.  Instead, an ever-rising tide of regulation and red tape which is trammelling industry and economic growth.

Those who study the Heritage Foundation’s annual “Index of Economic Freedom” will noted the strong correlation between economic freedom, and growth and prosperity.  The EU is moving in the opposite direction, and its long-term relative economic decline speaks volumes about policy failure.

Indeed, the EU has developed a narrative of failure.  The Common Fisheries policy – always about to be reformed – has decimated fish stocks and destroyed the British fishing industry, both on the water, and land-based processing.  The euro currency has been (as Lord Lawson has said) “the most disastrous political adventure of the post-war era”, spreading poverty and despair over large parts of Southern Europe.  And today we see the debacle of the immigration crisis, exacerbated by the EU’s inept response: Angela Merkel said “Let ‘em all come”, but in weeks the high-flown rhetoric had collapsed into razor wire and holding camps.

Those still clinging to the European dream seek to frighten us.  Leaving the EU would be “a leap in the dark” –  despite the fact that most countries for most of history have been independent, and that countries like Canada and Norway and Singapore and Korea do very nicely without abandoning their independence.

“Three and a half million jobs are at risk”.  This canard has been repeatedly debunked, not least by the NIESR which originally produced the figure.   The jobs depend on trade, not membership, and trade will continue.

“We need to be in the Single Market”.  But the Single Market is merely an old-fashioned Customs Union overlaid by a mountain of excessive regulation.  Countries like China, Russia, and the USA have no difficulty exporting into the EU (and they don’t even have preferential trade agreements).  Neither does Korea (which does have an FTA, as the UK will have when we leave).

“We won’t be part of TTIP”.  Indeed, not.  But outside the EU we should have had a UK/US trade deal decades ago.  And if Switzerland and even little Iceland can reach trade deals with China, the UK as a top-ten economy can certainly do so.

So, to the negotiations.  I believe that David Cameron has backed himself into a corner.  In the UK, he’s raised expectations of a new deal.  In Brussels and across the EU, he’s finding that there is no appetite for treaty change, which anyway could not be delivered within his 2017 time-scale.  So he’s asked for more than Brussels will offer, but it’s still far short of what the country and his critics expect.

UKIP (and many other eurosceptics) want a relationship based solely on free trade and voluntary intergovernmental negotiation.  We want to be good neighbours, not bad tenants.  That is more than Cameron is prepared to ask.  But he should at least ask for reinstatement of the Maastricht opt-outs that Major negotiated and Blair gave away – especially on employment law.  We also want national control back on energy, environment, and Health & Safety.  He must insist on border control, for a nation which cannot control its borders is no nation at all.  He must demand a full and unequivocal Westminster veto on EU legislative proposals.  And we need our fisheries back.

Cameron will not demand these things, and Brussels could not countenance them. That is why we must leave.

What will be the outcome of the referendum?  The euro crisis, nightly on our television screens like some malign soap-opera, certainly helps the out case, as does the immigration crisis – immigration is at the top of the list of voter concerns.  But the out side has another ace-in-the-hole, and that’s differential turnout.  To paraphrase Yeats, “The ins lack all conviction, while the outs are filled with passionate intensity”.

Those who support EU membership do so mostly on the basis that “I suppose we have to”, whereas the eurosceptics believe passionately in the independence and self-determination of our country – and in the economic benefits of freedom.

Six months ago, I feared we would lose the referendum.  But today, I’m increasingly optimistic that we shall win.

This article appears at www.endeavourpublicaffairs.co.uk/the-brexit-referendum

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40 Responses to The Brexit Referendum

  1. Pingback: Roger Helmer on Brexit - UKIP Guildford

  2. vera says:

    So refreshing to read ‘common sense’ after the usual ‘we would be isolated and have no influence in the world’ nonsense we get from time serving traitorous politicians.

  3. Ex-expat Colin says:

    “Those who support EU membership do so mostly on the basis that “I suppose we have to”, ”

    Thats apart from the extremists/activists who know they will loose their huge/regular money droppings from Brussels. And those who just don’t know/won’t know or vote like my dad used to.Plus whatever foreigners get to vote….. and thats far from decided. Any under 16’s yet?

    I note the huge wind up by the BBC on their favourite junket..climate. And I think they have been attempting to spanner Trump (E. Maitless). If you don’t agree your’e wrong…well I agree, they the BBC are nearly always wrong.

    Anyway, here’s a nice little read about microbes in the really cold regions of the planet. h/t WUWT

    http://wattsupwiththat.com/2015/11/12/micro-critters-rule/

    Good piece by Paul Nuttall in Breitbart UK today
    HOW THE EU FUNDED AL QAEDA:

  4. Jane Davies says:

    Now that we here in Canada have a new PM there are petitions doing the rounds and much talk about dropping the TTIP agreement. The bad things about it have already started and it is very unpopular here, but then we had a conservative PM who did not listen to the people and went ahead with it, sound familiar (?) and he is now history. We all feel we have emerged from under a dark cloud and we realise how depressed we all were under Harper, our new young PM has given the majority hope for the future, so time will tell if he is what it say’s on the tin!
    http://www.globaljustice.org.uk/blog/2015/mar/25/if-you-want-know-why-ttip-would-be-nightmare-look-what-just-happened-canada

  5. Jane Davies says:

    Let’s not forget many of the present government do not remember a life outside of the EU as they are too young to grasp the fact that the UK was more successful without the dictating blood suckers of Brussels.

  6. davidbuckingham says:

    ….. and again to repeat myself but all in a good cause – our incredible History is all about GREAT [Global Free Trade & Rule of Law] BRITAIN, the polar opposite of LITTLE [Local Customs Union & Rampant Statism] EUROPE.
    Belief in GREAT BRITAIN should be our mantra.

  7. catalanbrian says:

    In the European elections of 2014 UKIP managed to poll 26.6% of the total votes cast. On a tiny turnout of 34.19% of the total electorate that makes 9.09% of the electorate voted for UKIP. The three other main UK parties (Labour, Conservative and Liberal Democrat (all pro European Union) polled a total of 54.09% of the votes cast (18.09 of the electorate). I am not sure that this is a “stunning success” for UKIP, except perhaps for the seriously deluded. Yes UKIP has been noisy and continues to keep exit from the EU on the agenda but you are kidding yourselves if you believe that the UK electorate as a whole is supportive of UKIP’s agenda. The evidence is that most people don’t care, followed by those supporting EU membership. Your argument on trade deals has no facts to support it, just wishy washy and blinkered opinion. If I was a gambling man I would put my money on the electorate voting to stay in and UKIP being cast onto the garbage heap of history.

    • Ex-expat Colin says:

      in the right place:
      Your usual bollox….as usual!

    • Anyoldiron says:

      If the people vote to remain in the EU in the coming promised REFERENDUM, they must surely realise that they will be in the EU-FOREVER. (Or far longer than the last time the people had a REFERENDUM in 1975), and we ALL know what the then Leader told the people, “No loss of essential sovereignty” if the people voted to remain in then EEC”. The question I ask is, ‘What will be the point in having ANYONE in either of those two Houses of Parliament, when even THEY have to obey the Treaties THEY have ratified without ever asking the people BEFORE ratification? Our very own Common Law Constitution also FORBIDS US OBEYING FOREIGNERS, From The Act of Supremacy 1559 “…all usurped and foreign power and authority…may forever be clearly extinguished, and never used or obeyed in this realm. …no foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate…shall at any time after the last day of this session of Parliament, use, enjoy or exercise any manner of power, jurisdiction, superiority, authority, preeminence or privilege…within this realm, but that henceforth the same shall be clearly abolished out of this realm, for ever.” I know a GREAT deal about that last WAR for we were indeed bombed out living then as we did near the great Manchester Ship Canal, near to the Swing Bridge and the Aqueduct where the great ships used to use.

    • You can play with the numbers all you want, Brian. The fact is that UKIP is the first new party for a century to come top of a national poll. That’s an amazing achievement — and a stinging rebuke to Brussels.

      • catalanbrian says:

        I don’t consider 9.09% of the electorate to be a very significant achievement. And furthermore you could not even get your leader elected to the UK parliament, or anyone else for that matter, other than Carswell, who I understand is a fairly decent constituency MP and brought his Tory votes with him. Still you are of course entitled to claim what you consider to be a glorious victory

  8. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Your usual bollox….as usual!

    • catalanbrian says:

      What an insightful comment

    • Anyoldiron says:

      “Modernised” Youth Rembrance

      WE did not die in foreign lands,
      Don uniform brown or blue,
      Like Pontious Pilot, we washed our hands,
      We will not die, like you.
      No “Nation” left, to fight or die,
      No “Kingdom” now united,
      We too were fed treachery and lies
      But our lives will not be blighted.

      The Country for which YOU gave your all,
      Is ruled by those you fought,
      The men of straw will not fall,
      “Twas you who died for naught.
      Each leader over those long years,
      That played their treacherours part,
      Will dare to stand with moving tears
      By the Cenotaph, hand on heart.

      The ghosts of yesteryear will come to haunt,
      Those spineless creatures all,
      Till smiling face is pale and gaunt,
      And Grim Reaper once more walks tall.

  9. Anyoldiron says:

    Trust, A word from the Past.

    Gone are the days, so long ago now,
    When trust in our Government held fast.
    When true to their Oath and to their King,
    Just a memory, from that long distant past.
    Weak now are those in that place of trust,
    Eagerly treacherous Treaties do sign,
    For those that forbid the people a say,
    Shout by hook or crook, ALL is mine.

    But trust is such a gentle word,
    It is fragile, needs loving tender care,
    For once it is lost, it is forever out of reach,
    To place again in their hands, no one dare
    The belief in reliability, truth or strength
    Is now misplaced for a while,
    No confidence left for those in power.
    For those deeds that are done are most vile.

    Each five years in a ‘position of trust’,
    An honour bestowed to cherish,
    These most precious Islands of ours
    That so many in the saving, did perish.
    Never again will the people believe
    Any word by an MP, friend or foe,
    The people will only trust in themselves,
    For it is they that hold the future you know.

  10. Brin Jenkins says:

    We have an elephant being ignored. When is someone going to rid us of these incompetent traitors and take control of our Country? We are sitting around waiting for the next atrocity to unfold.

    • Jane Davies says:

      And when it does there are far fewer police and military personnel to protect the people.
      When is Cameron and his buds going to think further than their own fat snouts?

    • Anyoldiron says:

      Had every one voted for the Freedom of this Country in the last General Election instead of putting their own Political Party before their Country and its FREEDDOM, WE WOULD HAVE BEEN OUT OF THE EU FAILY QUICKLY. Sadly, most put their Political Party before their Country. In that last WAR-which I remember very well indeed, we all put our Country and its FREEDOM before all else.

    • Anyoldiron says:

      Everyone had the chance in that last recent election to vote UKIP into Government (it mattered not one jot that they had no experience in Governing for all those in the Houses of Commons TODAY have to obey the orders of foreigners.) Sadly, that was perhaps the one and only chance of this Country ever being able to Govern this once truly GREAT Country, to govern itself and Acording to its very own Common Law Constitutiona and
      “ACCORDING TO LAW”.

  11. kim Terry says:

    With what has just happened in Paris isn’t it about time our prime minister got some balls and told the EU where to go? Close our borders, get rid of bogus asylum seekers and send them back to where they came from – that’s if anyone knows!! Get rid of people preaching hate and radicals too. The whole of Europe needs to shut down their borders too but what has Merkel done??? Opened up the whole of Europe to God knows who only to find that they go on to slaughter innocent people. The should all be sent back to be thrown into a bottomless pit of sewerage where they belong. We should be thanking our lucky stars that what happened in Paris didn’t happen in London. Mind you, it could and very soon especially when you think of how many terror attacks we are told are foiled by the security forces in this country. It is only a matter of time and yet all we get is hand wringing. Not much use against weapons and bombs!

    • catalanbrian says:

      The UK’s borders are closed as the UK is not part of the Schengen area. There is no such thing as a “bogus asylum seeker”. People are either asylum seekers or they are not. There is no question of anyone being “bogus”. I am not sure that any blame can be laid at Merkel’s feat over this incident. And as for getting rid of people preaching hate(and radicals too), well it would seem that you are proposing getting rid of yourself as you are showing a considerable amount of hate.

      • Roger Helmer MEP says:

        That’s unusually daft even for you, Brian. Someone who claims asylum when they don’t qualify, is a bogus asylum seeker. And there are many thousands of them. Some are ISIS jihadis.

  12. kim Terry says:

    Bollox again. I have not said I hate anyone only that those who are against us should not be allowed to stay or enter the country. Do you not think that many of these ‘refugees’ will eventually gain entry to the UK? I know some are genuine but many are not. They are coming from Afghanistan, Eritrea and other countries that are not affected by the Syrian crisis. Let’s just open our doors to all. One of the terrorists in Paris came from Syria with the ‘refugees’. They way you write on this blog it sounds as though you sympathise with terrorists and hate the west.

    • catalanbrian says:

      “The (sic) should all be sent back to be thrown into a bottomless pit of sewerage where they belong. That does rather sound like hate to me. And no, I do not sympathise with the terrorists and nor do I hate the west. I just do not go in for the knee jerk reactions that are so popular amongst many of the people on here and in the popular press. I think that you will find that “those who are against us” who are foreign citizens are already not allowed to” stay or enter the country”.

      I see also that you trawl out Afghanistan and Eritrea as examples of places that are not affected by the Syrian crisis. That is of course true. So the west had no involvement in the destabilisation of Afghanistan then? And the people of Afghanistan have no need to seek refuge elsewhere because Afghanistan is so safe? You should perhaps ask any of the British troops who have been there. Eritrea is different in that the west has not invaded the country – yet, but is not the paradise that you seem to think it is, although it could be with the right amount of assistance. However, I expect that you are, in common with others on this blog, against increasing the foreign aid budget, so how do we achieve that?

      You make a bald statement that “one of the terrorists in Paris came from Syria with the ‘refugees'” (why the quotation marks indicating that you do not believe that these people are refugees?). There is no evidence of that, yet. The only terrorist thus far identified is a French citizen who was born in France. Why do you feel the need to twist the facts to suit your agenda?

      • Ex-expat Colin says:

        Usual bollox…over and over again.

      • Jane Davies says:

        To quote….” However, I expect that you are, in common with others on this blog, against increasing the foreign aid budget”….
        Absofrigginglutely, any decent minded people are dead against the present 12 billion a year pocketed by foreign governments let alone even more of tax payers dosh being syphoned off when British seniors are having their vital meals on wheels stopped and many cannot afford to eat and heat their homes every winter.

      • catalanbrian says:

        It seems that you “decent minded people” are rather out of step with the rest of the British public, who are, according to surveys, quite content with the current level of aid that is given to assist the poorest people on the planet. Yet another area where Ukippers are out of step with the rest of society. As far as your comment on poor old people in Britain who are having their food stopped and who cannot afford to heat their houses is concerned may I remind you that robbing the world’s poorest to feed our seniors is not the solution. If it is so bad then perhaps the UK should scrap the renewal of Trident (est £100billion). Adventures such as Iraq and Afghanistan have cost around £30bn each. Or perhaps the better solution is to make sure that the correct amount of tax is collected from the taxpayer, or better still from those non taxpayers who do so by clever accounting tricks.

      • Brin Jenkins says:

        Who is robbing the Worlds poorest? Using extortionate taxation to do this might be viewed as a crime against the tax payer.

      • catalanbrian says:

        You clearly cannot understand plain English – I suggest that you reread my post which was in response to Jane Davies’ post in which she suggested that the aid budget should be stopped. That would be robbing the world’s poorest . Extortionate taxation! The British overseas aid budget represents 0.7% of the UK GDP, which is hardly extortionate taxation.

        You should be ashamed of your selfish attitude towards those less fortunate than you.

      • Jane Davies says:

        Brian, I didn’t say foreign aid should be stopped, it’s the amount that most people object to. I also said this obscene amount of taxpayers hard earned is going into the pockets of foreign governments…….the worlds poor in most cases are still poor. Lets not kid ourselves that this 12 billion is sent because Cameron et al are concerned about the welfare of the citizens of these countries, it’s all about what they get out it.

      • catalanbrian says:

        But 0.7% of GDP is hardly a vast imposition on the UK taxpayer. I agree that some aid has been misused in the past but today it is now better targetted, so there is less waste. And yes there is some self interest in this, but perhaps that may not be such a bad thing if it acts as a pump primer for increased trade with those poor countries.

  13. Brin Jenkins says:

    Brian I really don’t care very much for your bleeding heart syndrome, crime rates rising, standard of living falling at a faster rate than GDP, our culture is being submerged by hordes demanding our capitulation.

    Who gave you or anyone else the right to agree on our behalf to this invasion? Asylum is the first safe Country they come to as they leave their own borders.

    Why not invite a few into your own home? Then speak after you have found it to be an enjoyable and uplifting experience, tell us of your own joy!

  14. Ex-expat Colin says:

    What did that dope Juncker say? blah, blah, silly stuff…”I don’t like it”

    Schengen…is that the freedom that needs armed police and armed undercover police everywhere to support it. About now and whether we are in it or out we’ll certainly need a lot of guarding…. by the look of things. Well, Cameron’s on a knee jerk to hire 2000 new spooks.

    Its all in good sensible, safe hands is it not? Money and countries down the drain with people casually mowed down as and when. I don’t like it either…any of it!

  15. brent lyon says:

    not sure about brexit. I am a little cautious when someone tells me that if we leave Europe the next day we will be living in a land of ‘milk and honey’. To reach ‘the promised land’ will the UK spend ’40 years in the wilderness’. UKIP may be passionate about leaving but so was Moses when he got the Hebrews out of Egypt. I don’t wish to be dead before the UK reaches the promised land.

  16. catalanbrian says:

    No,.Mr Helmer they are not bogus asylum seekers but failed asylum seekers. All are entitled to claim asylum, even you. Some will succeed because their case convinces the authorities; others will not because the authorities do not consider their case to be strong enough. Nothing to do with being bogus.

  17. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Yes, Mr Helmer they are false asylum seekers. They choose not to fight for their own lands/life. They are invaders and have been illegally invited by the curse that exists within Germany primarily. Case of, ” your business is my misery”. Germany again!

    I find it strange that the first 100 immigrants invited by Cameron (innocents?) are being shipped directly to Scotland. That’s a cold/wet place largely, not known for good housing and jobs for local and foreign peasants. Its a place that kicked out Labour, mostly for failing on the housing and jobs front. It distils whisky and brews beer a lot, which is a good thing. However, it is wrecking its energy supply – a very bad thing!

    I hate to quote the BBC (election 2015)..but:
    UK vote share – 650 of 650 seats (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results)
    Party%
    CON 36.9
    LAB 30.4
    UKIP 12.6
    LD 7.9
    SNP 4.7
    GRN 3.8

    Believe what you like but UKIP certainly achieved a very great deal. The results surrounding this UKIP result represents significant problems for the UK on both domestic and international fronts. Most of it is awkwardly liberal that does not contain/emit common sense aka weakness. There are a number of worthy representatives within the results and they lie above the weak labour party. Some say there are a couple in the labour party…thats true.

    Because the majority of people eligible to vote in the UK don’t it’s no wonder we see the SNP and other dumb parties wanting voting age lowered and to qualify non British Citizens. The SNP excluded some Scottish military voting in their looney campaign for out (UK). Hardly representative of controlling our own country is it? Clearly the majority don’t mind being governed from Bavaria …whatever.

    Election attendance in UK apart from voting systems is a very big problem in UK. It tends to indicate that common sense does not really exist amongst a vast swathe of the population. That’s an ideal opportunity to wreck a country.

    Mr Farage was right to finger S. Arabia last night at Basingstoke. One should realise that S. Arabia isn’t benevolent as in the common meaning. It wants its belief system (doctrine) adopted rapidly in return. Sudan lost itself as a result and Yemen has been recklessly damaged by them. And the Yemeni’s did not support Bush/Blair..tut..tut! Yes, the fat arabs should be worried about loosing their high life…very worried.

    On the subject of money which would be the vast amount we have to borrow to dish out in places that we shouldn’t. Anybody know who might be loaning it..aside from China? I think China calls it investments anayway.

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