Daily Debrief March 4th

Orchestrated treachery

Today we see evidence of an orchestrated campaign of misinformation on Brexit from France and Germany.  Headlines in The Indy and The “i” speak of warnings from France and Germany. The Guardian and the Times focus on France, and President Hollande’s veiled threats of “consequences” of Brexit.  And not very veiled threats, either.  Hollande refers specifically to border controls, Single Market access, and other policy areas.  The German Finance Minister is quite explicit: Britain could be “shut out of the Single Market”.

There is no substance in these threats.  As I have argued in previous Daily Debriefs, even if France were to withdraw from the agreement that puts British border controls in Calais, we should still be able to stop (most) illegals in Dover, and send them back on the next train or boat.  Germany and the EU can only stop access of British goods into their market if they withdraw from the WTO.  These are empty threats.

But the timing of these threats is interesting.  Cameron floated his idea of “migrant camps in England” as early as February 8th.  But it was promptly dismissed by the French government.  But then, on March 2nd, the very day before Cameron was due to go to Paris to meet President Hollande, up pops French Finance Minister Emmanuel Macron to reassert the border control threat, not so much as a possibility, as an inevitable consequence of Brexit.  Next day, after the Cameron meeting, Hollande speaks menacingly of “consequences”, in rather the tone that a Mafia enforcer might use.  Clearly our PR Prime Minister is using his lobbying skills.  We used to speak of Peter Mandelson and the “Dark Arts”, but he isn’t the only one.

The timing strongly implies that we are seeing a campaign orchestrated by Downing Street and the Remain Campaign, to get foreign leaders to issue threats against Britain.  We have seen this before.  On February 27th, the G7 Finance Ministers, at George Osborne’s behest, included in their communiqué an explicit threat of the financial consequences of Brexit.

There is a very strong and clear presumption that Ministers in Her Majesty’s Government are deliberately urging foreign governments and ministers to threaten the economic prospects of our country.  In the view of the Leave campaign, these warnings are misplaced.  They are at the very least highly biased and partisan.  And they risk becoming self-fulfilling, and doing real damage to our country and our economy quite independently of their substance.  “Treason” is a strong and ugly word, but it is difficult not to keep it in mind when Ministers take action of this kind.

The Quiet Man speaks out

Iain Duncan Smith, in the Mail, has expressed similar concern about the behaviour of the Remain campaign — and by implication of the Prime Minister and the government. While recognising the damage that could be done to the country, he particularly draws attention to the danger of the damage that an acrimonious debate will do to the government and the Conservative Party.  In fact we have an unprecedented situation where both our main political parties, Labour and Conservative, are simultaneously engaged in internecine strife.  Some may see this as an opportunity for the third party.  UKIP.

Donald Tusk mulls a UKIP policy

In a pathetic gesture, European Council President Donald Tusk has appealed to economic migrants to stop coming to Europe.  The Express headlines“Migrants told to keep out of EU”.  You might as well ask a lion to stop eating a sheep.  But it seems that having tried everything else, and failed, Tusk is now thinking the unthinkable, and talking about turning back the boats, Australian style.  The BBC  reports: “Tusk says it is up to Turkey to decide how to reduce the flow to Europe, but that it could be time to turn back migrant boats trying to reach Greece”.

Of course UKIP has been arguing for turning back the boats for many months — and we have been vilified as heartless (even though this policy would stop the traffic, and stop the drownings).  But perhaps the light of reality is dawning, and Tusk is prepared to accept that our proposal is a necessary condition for starting to address the problem.

“€uro will not survive another slump”

A new research note from leading international bank Crédit Suisse predicts that the €uro currency will not survive another recession in Europe..  “The viability of the €uro is contingent on the current recovery” says the bank.  We’ve heard a bit less about the €uro crisis recently, and it’s easy to imagine that it’s gone away.  It hasn’t.  The demise of the €uro is “When”, not “If”.

To conclude, a blast of optimism:

John Longworth, Director General of British Chambers of Commerce,  has concluded that Britain would be better off out of the EU, and would have a bright future as an independent country.  He was speaking in support of a letter making the same pro-Brexit point from 200 small & medium size enterprises.  He added (almost in the words that I frequently use) that “the EU has become incapable of meaningful reform”.  Dead right, John.  The only way is #Brexit.


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12 Responses to Daily Debrief March 4th

  1. Alan Wheatley says:

    It strikes me that the more Cameron identifies the bad things that will befall the UK consequent a Brexit the more he identifies himself as incapable of the job of PM. For instance, if his prediction is that as an independent nation he can not foresee how it is possible to control who comes into the country, then the sooner the job passes to someone who can so much the better.

    • Agreed: he is a “TINO,” Tory in name only, a Liberal in Tory clothing, usually misrepresenting his true convictions in his speeches.
      “By their fruits ye shall know them”, but, in Cameron’s case, the fruits have so often proved to be rotten, Liberal garbage.
      His stance on BREXIT is no exception, and has cost his Party my vote at least, after nearly 60 years.
      (His only bons mots have been “All that Green Cr@p,” but his actions since that promising utterance have not reflected its realistic appraisal, pace “CatalanB.”)

  2. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Sorry – was too busy laughing at Harrabine and the “internet of thingys” this am on R4. It (they/them?) might seek to knock my freezer off for 30 mins to let next doors freezer …er.. freeze.

    Meanwhile power station builds are crippled, so the “internet of thingys” might be a bit unreliable.

    Go through the series to remind yourself: Victorian Farm

    Advice from Australia: (apart from them and others don’t want trade with UK..long list):

    CSIRO’s head Larry Marshall – Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

    “Make no mistake, these are dark and terrible times for the climate change industry. If you have a son or a daughter studying at university in a field like ecology, environmental studies or similar, do be sure to encourage them to polish up their burger-flipping or lap-dancing skills.” Boom!!

  3. ian wragg says:

    We could do with some of the eco-loons in Parliament being sent to flip burgers. As I type it is snowing and the nearby 9MW wind farm which will power xxxxxxxxx homes is stationary. The coal fired station down the road is on full tilt and scheduled to be closed in the near future as it has become uneconomical.
    This due to the incoherent subsidies for wind and PV which reduces the load on cheap coal fired stations. Not to mention the idiotic carbon tax.

  4. Shieldsman says:

    I have made the following points recently: –
    I think we have all missed Cameron’s big CON.
    He has perpetrated a gigantic confidence trick on the British Public.
    He claims to have REFORMED the European Union.
    How can that be?
    Surely it would require a major fundamental Treaty Change to which all 28 member States are signed up to.
    Over at Eureferendum.com there appears to be an admission that they have been distracted by other events – the dogy dossier claims. So what if any changes took place on the 18 & 19th February that could be in all honesty as reforming (changing) the EU. From the entry on Tuesday 23rd February at I lifted a treatise by Lawyers for Britain titled The Renegotiation – “Ever Closer Union” . Their conclusion – much ado about nothing.

    Cameron’s henchman Hammond is trying to wrong foot the leave campaign on how we Brexit.
    Cameron has been in the driving seat from making his Bloomburg speech, through enunciating all the faults of the EU, what he was going to do to put it right passing the referendum act and the negotiations leading up to his failure to obtain any change of consequence, in essence throwing in the towel.
    It was his decision to claim a successful negotiation and come bouncing out of his corner shouting I have reformed the European Union and recommending the ‘stay vote’.

    Using all the powers of Government to back his decision (and the BBC?) this creates a very biased situation.
    This brings us to the next problem – when we vote to leave the negotiations are in the hands of a PM who wants to stay in.
    The PM said he had no plans on BREXIT but we Hammond putting problems in front of every option.
    I know you have sound plans on the best course of action, so there will have to be a showdown with Cameron relinquishing control to others.

    • Jane Davies says:

      Shieldsman, you say – “when we vote to leave the negotiations are in the hands of a PM who wants to stay in”……so true, this is why he must be forced to step down if the vote is to leave, and he must do so within hours of a leave result. This must happen by force if need be, although if the man has any decency left he should do so of his own accord.

      The obvious candidate to head up the group to smooth the UK through the Brexit process is of course Nigel Farage, his right hand men I hope includes Roger. Then as soon as possible a general election should take place.

      • Ex-expat Colin says:

        Mandelsons looking for a job…don’t think it would be in our interests though. He’s just IN waiting.

      • Jane Davies says:

        There will be plenty of vacant offices in the EU once the British MEP’S step down. Failing that I’m sure he could get a job cleaning the EU loos, no on second thoughts one needs staff who can do the job properly. Whatever……I won’t lose any sleep over him!

      • Ex-expat Colin says:

        HoC Committee 1/3/16: The economic and financial costs and benefits of UK’s EU membership. Witnesses: Lord Hill, EU Commissioner for Financial Stability, Financial Services and Capital Markets Union


        They try to skewer this bloke (Lord Hill)…but he don’t know much. Brit EU Commissioner happy with it all really?

  5. Shieldsman says:

    charles wardrop
    I like that a TINO, Cameron edging Nick Clegg out of the centre left position had me puzzled what to call him, that is nothing rude.

  6. If we vote to leave Cameron must go or be sacked immediately. I don’t want that loser Osborne in his place either. Neither of them are running the country- they are too busy flitting about like demented bluebottles, in a mad panic. They have just shown how totally inept and out of touch they are with ordinary people’s lives and concerns.

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