Daily Debrief March 11th

The Prime Minister: mendacious and malicious

In David Cameron’s speech yesterday, he repeated the “three million jobs” line.  “Three million jobs are linked (my emphasis) to the Single Market”.  Note that weasel phrase “are linked”?  This is not strictly speaking a lie.  It is widely believed that around 3 million UK jobs depend on trade with the EU.  But Cameron is clearly seeking to imply that the jobs depend on the membership.  That is what he wants the public to understand, and it is a deliberate deceit.

The well-worn phrase “a leap in the dark” features again.  But as I have repeatedly argued, it’s not a leap in the dark.  We have a secure safety-net in the WTO rules.  Many companies and independent countries trade successfully with the EU on that basis, and so could we.  But we are very confident that we will get a bilateral trade deal, for the reasons I have repeatedly outlined.  And we will get it quickly (Digby Jones said “within 24 hours”), because they need it even more than we do.  If three million UK jobs depend on EU/UK trade, then five or six million continental jobs depend on it too.

But the most shameful point of Cameron speech was his accusation that Brexiteers thought that “job losses were a price worth paying” for Brexit.  Cameron knows (or ought to know) that everyone on the Leave side believes that our country and our people will be Better Off Out.  We can have a legitimate debate about whether we are right or wrong in that opinion, but for Cameron to accuse all of us, including some of his Cabinet colleagues, of deliberately and carelessly imperilling British jobs is beneath contempt.  As I Tweeted yesterday, he should be ashamed.  And he should apologise.

The “27 countries” Myth

On of the myths of the Remainians is that after Brexit, we will have to negotiate separate trade deals with all the remaining 27 member-states.  That shows a vast ignorance of the EU project.  It would be true only if all 27 also left the EU.  I don’t see that happening (or at least, not immediately!). The whole point of the EU is that it does trade deals on behalf of the member-states.  So we would need a single bilateral UK/EU trade deal, and for the reason outlined above, we will get it in short order.

Draghi throws the Kitchen Sink

The BBC reports that ECB President Mario Draghi has “thrown the kitchen sink” at the eurozone economy, with zero and negative deposit rates, a massive increase in Quantitative Easing, and new incentives for banks to lend to companies and consumers.  Meantime the Bank for International Settlements (which presumably knows nearly as much about macro-economics as Mr. Draghi) is issuing dire warnings of a credit bubble, with national and personal debt at record levels threatening a global meltdown.  I’m having difficulty reconciling these two propositions, which seem, on the face of it, to be in conflict.  But I have a prediction: Draghi may have thrown the kitchen sink at the problem, but the €uro will still go down the plug-hole.

News from Iceland

If we think we had a financial crisis, it was a minor affair compared to the financial tsunami that hit Iceland a few years back.  At the time, it was the conventional wisdom that the only solution for Iceland was to join the EU, and that the €uro was the only route to salvation.  Iceland applied to join the EU in 2009.  But the wheels of Brussels grind slowly, and in the meantime, Iceland devalued and started to claw its way back.  For the last six years its GDP growth rate has been close to 3%, and is expected by the IMF to be 3.2% this year.  A few weeks ago, Iceland withdrew its application to join the EU.  Recent polls show that 70% of Icelanders are happy to be out of the EU.  Iceland’s current Prime Minister Sigmund Gunnlaugsson says “There is hardly any doubt that if we had been in the EU and the euro at the time, the country would have been bankrupted”.  Shades of Greece.  Déja vu all over again.

The Telegraph reports that Iceland sees the EU as “increasingly dominated by Germany”, with the UK “having little say”.  Gunnluagsson pours scorn on the idea that if Britain stays in the EU we can achieve further reform.  In the same report, Richard Sharp, a member of the Bank of England’s financial policy committee, tells the Treasury Select Committee that he is unconcerned about Brexit. “It is not an issue for financial stability” he said.

 

Wellby: “It’s OK to worry about immigration”

 

In an astonishing turn-around, the Archbishop of Canterbury has insisted that it’s “outrageous” to call those concerned about immigration levels “racist”.  Well said Sir.  But for years, UKIP has been attacked by the left, and by the church, as “racist” for raising the immigration issue (indeed I believe we can take credit for bringing this untouchable issue into the public square, and for daring to say what millions of our fellow countrymen and women were thinking).  This despite the fact that our “points system” immigration policy involves no racial discrimination at all — unlike this Conservative government’s pro-European, anti-Commonwealth immigration policy.

There is joy in Heaven over one sinner that repenteth, as the Good Book says, and Welby’s statement is welcome.  But maybe he should now apologise on behalf of all those who have played the Race Card in the past, to those who have striven to put this important issue on the table.

Young people not captivated by the EU referendum

The BBC reports an alarming lack of interest in the EU issue amongst young people — who in any case are less likely to vote than older people.  As a politician eager that the Referendum result should have legitimacy, I believe they should take an interest (and I’m doing my bit — a public debate tonight at Derby University).  But I can’t help also reflecting that older people are more likely to vote to leave (perhaps, I would say, because they’ve had longer to see and understand the mess that EU membership has got us into), so this story looks positive for the Leave Campaign.

 

 

 

 

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12 Responses to Daily Debrief March 11th

  1. Ex-expat Colin says:

    At least Grayling threw a load back on the topic.

    So a central bank pays a bunch of clearing banks to borrow money so that they can charge high interest to ordinary customers. Sounds like it… plus the 20 Euro billions per month QE. Has to be a dead and cremated parrot by now?

    Trump AGW Alert
    Some very upset Twatter hand wringers here:
    http://ecowatch.com/2015/10/19/donald-trump-climate-change-tweets/

    Trudeau/Obama and methane….its leaking from pipelines or something?

    • Jane Davies says:

      Our new PM is going down a bomb in the USA…..almost pop star status….but he has bought into the climate change scam so he is not that perfect!
      *****************************************************************************************************
      WASHINGTON (Reuters) – “The United States and Canada agreed joint steps on Thursday to fight climate change, including cutting methane emissions from oil and gas operations and signing last year’s Paris climate deal “as soon as feasible.”
      The agreement came as Canada’s new Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and President Barack Obama met at the White House. Methane, which can leak from pipelines and valves, is a powerful greenhouse gas, with up to 80 times the potential of carbon dioxide to trap the planet’s heat.
      The agreement can do “even more to protect our countries and our communities, especially in the Arctic, from climate change,” Obama said during a welcoming ceremony for Trudeau.
      The countries committed to cutting emissions of methane by 40 to 45 percent below 2012 levels by 2025, to take steps to fight climate change in the Arctic, and to speed development of green technologies.
      The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency will begin developing regulations for methane emissions from existing oil and gas sources immediately and “will move as expeditiously as possible to complete this process,” the joint agreement said.”
      ***************************************************************************************************

      CO2 has failed to “kill” the planet so now the target is Methane!
      Fracking releases large amounts of Methane so the next scam will be to tax it. A tax on Methane=a rise in energy prices.
      Beam me up Scotty!

      • Ex-expat Colin says:

        Its back to the cow farts Jane

      • Jane Davies says:

        Yep…..we will have to stop eating beef and drinking milk. At least if all the ruminants are banished from the earth the badgers can live in peace.
        Oh and yes….ban fracking!

  2. Anyoldiron says:

    I see no point in having ANYONE in those two Houses of Parliament when all THEY can do is obey the EU like the rest of are supposed to do.

  3. Shieldsman says:

    Letters:
    SIR – If the Prime Minister’s assertion that a vote to leave the European Union will push up mortgage rates also means that there will be an increase in the pitiful interest rates offered to savers in this country, then the sooner we leave the better.
    Peter Cornish
    Gainsborough, Lincolnshire

    SIR – Having twice (1961-67 and 1971-77) had the privilege of working for the BBC – including weekly attendance at its news and current affairs policy committee – I am sad to conclude that it is no longer impartial.

    My anxieties have been increasing gradually. But they have come to a head over the EU referendum. Andrew Marr’s interview with Boris Johnson on Sunday was a disgrace. Having invited him to set out his case, Mr Marr continually interrupted him, flourishing pre-prepared written material. I was shouting at my television set.

    My despair has increased with daily news coverage of the debate. Mark Carney, the Governor of the Bank of England, was given favourable coverage for his pro-EU remarks to the Commons Treasury committee, while trivia about an email sent to staff of the Mayor of London was presented as a humiliation for Mr Johnson.
    Edward Rayner
    Eastbourne, East Sussex

    Who said what. when and where:
    British voters, not Barroso, are my boss over EU immigration – BBC 20 October 2014

    British families are entitled to fear the impact that “enormous” numbers of migrants will have on jobs, housing and the NHS,………………….it is “absolutely outrageous” to condemn people who raise concerns as “racist” and said that their “genuine fears” must be listened to and addressed.

  4. Lynda Ovens says:

    We need to turn the Remain people’s arguments completely around. They keep asking us what
    will it be like after Brexit. We should ask what will it be like if we stay in, boy that would bring out
    the real truth, if they can remember what that is.

  5. Jane Davies says:

    I hope the Brexiteers are countering these downright lies from Cameron and his bunch of fellow liars. Please remind the people that Tory lies on joining “a common market” has been the downfall of a once great country……Tories are lying again to remain in the cesspit of despots.

    • Ex-expat Colin says:

      These Tories are Out active in HoC and HoL and publicly:
      J. Redwood
      B. Johnson
      C. Grayling
      J. Rees – Mogg
      B. Cash (Sir)
      M. Ridley (Lord)
      N. Lawson (Lord)

      The party is pretty much split now I think. They lazy approach would be to do nothing I suspect thus allowing Remain. Local elections shortly might expose something else?

  6. colin kay says:

    Yes,but if there any job losses surely “migrants” will be hurt more than us pathetic(according to our pm)natives because l thought that 3 out of every 5 job created in our great country went to immigrants anyway.So even “IF” THERE are any job “losses”surely that could be easily be covered by less migration.AND MAY I JUST SAY HERE,because l believe that anything on this site or similar sites,will be monitored by `Camoron teams` somewhere,YOU ARE A TRAITOR,
    thank you Rodger,wish you were in charge.

  7. I think the debate is moving on. Listening last night to Question time on Radio 4, I was struck by the sheer anger. Anger at Brussels telling farmers how to farm (in return for hang-outs), anger at Spanish farmers cheating the system (cauliflowers covered in pesticide being harvested), anger at not hearing English spoken in your home town, anger at our helplessness as our powers and rights are draining away.
    Everyone would like to leave. Except those on the hand-outs who are worried.
    But there are a lot of things to clear up: immigration, Greece, unemployment, economic decline, the eurozone. We need to talk.
    While we are talking – and only while we are talking – we need a lot of security otherwise we face disaster. Businesses and Banks do not want to be ruined. Neither do farmers or the few remaining fishermen.
    We need to nail down our membership of the EEA while we are talking.
    We need to join EFTA while we are talking.
    We need to become an Associate member of the EU on these terms only while we are talking.
    Then we need to send in our negotiating team ready to talk, listen and get us the best deal they can (Could we have Mr Erdogan please?)

  8. Anyoldiron says:

    We will NEVER forget.

    So many gave their lives for us
    Fighting in two World Wars,
    Yet when “Peace” came at last
    We ask, “What was that war for”?
    Where is that peace we fought for?
    Did we pay to give it away
    To foreigners once more to govern us?
    Did the people ever have a say?

    We were asked once in 1975
    To remain in the then EEC,
    But what is it now in 2016
    It is nothing like we thought it would be.
    Our Common Law Constitution
    Ignored and deliberately cast aside,
    A new Flag and EU Anthem
    That no Brits can truly abide.

    Yet according to our Constitution,
    We must be free to govern our selves?
    To betray those that gave their lives for us
    Would be like living in a permanent Hell!
    We are forbidden to obey foreigners
    Our Constitution makes that quite clear,
    It is time for us to set ourselves FREE.
    By the REFERENDUM Governments fear.

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