Daily Debrief March 18th

A migrant deal with Turkey?

This morning’s news is that the March 17th/18th European Council has reached agreement on the Turkey migrant deal. Agreement, that is, between 28 member states – but not so far, Turkey.

As Turkey was expecting six billion Euros, early visa-free access and fast-track EU membership, they will not be impressed that all the good bits, (from their perspective), have been dropped. The scheme in any case, looks unworkable.

Last night on BBC Question Time I stressed the immigration implications of the Turkey deal and got a very positive audience reaction. Turkey will be a key factor in the Brexit debate.

David Owen back Brexit

David Owen – former Europhile, former Social Democrat, former Foreign Minister – has come out for Brexit. He points to the potential disaster of Turkish accession. He faults David Cameron for his blind support for Angela Merkel’s migrant plans. And most interestingly, for a former Foreign Secretary, he believes taking back control of our foreign policy will be one of the biggest benefits of Brexit.

Osborne’s budget for survival (his)

This was not a “budget for the long term,” nor was it a “a budget for future generations.” As Roger Bootle writes, it was a budget for three months. A desperate attempt to ensure a Remain vote in June, (though disabled voters may not be impressed).

Because Osborne knows that his job, and his boss’s job, depend on winning the Referendum. Just now, that looks a bit dodgy.

It’s interesting to speculate on how many voters with no real interest in the EU may vote to leave, just to punish the government of the day. I suspect a significant number.

Trump on the ‘Top Ten Risk’ list

The Economist has published a list of the top ten risks to the global economy and The Donald is right up there, behind a Cold War but level with Jihadism. Given The Economist’s unswerving support for Brussels, we should perhaps be relived that while Brexit is on the list, it is not up there with a Trump Presidency.

Big companies must be smarting

Large companies have dutifully come forward to supporting the Government position on Remain. So they must be shocked to find their loyalty and help have been rewarded in the Budget, with a £10 billion tax hit.

As Allister Heath remarks in The Telegraph, Osborne’s tax-grab is likely to cost pro-EU multi-nationals more than Brexit ever would, even under the Government’s ‘Project Fear’ scenarios.

Cynical timing on  the Tampon Tax

So Cameron has gone to Brussels and raised the issue of the ‘Tampon Tax‘ – the fact we are unable under EU rules to reduce the VAT below five per cent. It seems he will get a positive reaction.

But he could have done this any time in the last six years. The fact he does so within 100 days of the EU referendum shows this is a cynically choreographed ploy to enable him to come back and say – “Look we can achieve change in the EU.”

If we vote to Remain, there will be no more concessions, As Nigel Farage remarked, the mere fact that we have to ask Brussels’ permission to make a minor tax adjustment makes the case for taking back control.

In any case Cameron only has agreement in principle. His concession could be overturned by other member states, or indeed, by the European Parliament.


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17 Responses to Daily Debrief March 18th

  1. ian wragg says:

    Like him or loathe him, Trump has shaken up the cosy cartel of American politics. Like in Britain, people are sick of being lied to by a self serving aristocracy.
    He on says what normal people think and because he bankrolls himself he gets away with it.

    • Ex-expat Colin says:

      70yr old standing up to all the political garbage in the US. Surprises me that he has the interest to do it. Doesn’t need to I would’ve thought. Clearly believes in demolishing stuff though. Building contracts later?

      Another Judge Judy in waiting:

      • Jane Davies says:

        If nothing else the bible thumping republicans have been shaken out of their bigoted narrow minded mindset. So I guess we should all be thankful for that!

  2. Ex-expat Colin says:

    More from Redwood..OBR crap models and a Governor of the BOE who like the OBR is wrong.
    Models again…!

    Why a PM doing this stuff…don’t say much for competence in Govt…anywhere much? We’ll be back to fines after the Ref, if still IN.

  3. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Comment on Redwoods site today:

    “Did you see what Roger Helmer’s appearance on Question Time did to the value of Sterling?”

    It was from Bob……perhaps Blackadder Bob ? And either way somebody would’ve been offended.

  4. Shieldsman says:

    Tony Blair: Britain’s Unemployed Should Get An Education And Stop Complaining About Migrants
    “The answer to someone who is unemployed in a country like mine or anywhere else in Europe, is not to blame migrants for having taken your job, is to get the education and the skills necessary in order to be able to operate in the modern world”, Mr. Blair told an educational conference in Dubai.

    How long was Tony Blair’s Labour Government in charge of Education for, 1997 – 2010. With all the grade inflation and dumbing down that went on, the unemployed probably have a right to complain. Manual skill training has been neglected, but most migrants fill the unskilled jobs.

    On Education, looking at the political entries to Parliament in recent years, there are vacant spaces in the upper story and a complete lack of any technical knowledge, not that it is needed to be a greenie.

    • Jane Davies says:

      Just shows how ignorant that vile man is…..does he not realise absolutely nobody likes him? As for his opinion on education how dare he…… education like pensions have been buggered up and messed about with by every government since the 1960’s. Including his bunch of crooks and thieves.

  5. Jane Davies says:

    This so called deal with Turkey was on our news here last night. When it is presented without the spin added it sounds like it is….just plain crazy. It’s sort of treated here like “are these guys serious?”

  6. Ex-expat Colin says:

    I’m just wondering when this is going to get through…to anybody undecided:

    “Taxation without representation” is a phrase commonly thought to have been first made famous by Boston lawyer James Otis in 1765. It refers to the idea of imposing taxes on people who have no recourse against or control over the taxing authority.

  7. Kevan Chippindall-Higgin says:

    Given that the EU has not had its accounts signed off for 20 years now, I am constantly astonished that we keep paying. The easiest thing to do would be to give the EU until 31 December 2017 to get its figures in order or the money tap will be closed.

    As for Cameron’s nonsense reformed EU line, we all know that it is an unsigned contract and as such worthless. Unless he was to say to the EU, now, that this is the deal the referendum is based upon and if we stay, it must be signed, sealed and delivered by 31st December 2019. Failure so to do would see Article 50 invoked without further notice on 1st January 2020. Furthermore, any moves to circumvent our ability to do this would see instant departure. That would concentrate the collective EU mind, but of course he does not have the bottle to do this.

    The EU knows our departure will spell its eventual political demise. This is going to happen anyway, but the UK leaving would be a very satisfactory catalyst. I am not in the least bit interested in the Economist’s argument that leaving the EU would be bad for the EU. That is the EU’s problem. I am interested in the UK’s future and that is not within the EU madhouse of chicanery and corruption.

  8. davidbuckingham says:

    Reference to Turkey: The Future
    Belgistan – when the EU Brussels gets taken over by Sharia !!! – couldn’t make it up!

    thankfully there re too many “moderate” muslims rising up i think – plus Ayaan Hirsi Ali et al but meantime more ammo for Brexit

  9. Shieldsman says:

    When Cameron quotes the best of both worlds I am confused. Does he mean there are two bits to the EU, in which case which bit is he in.
    I know there are more than one currencies, with 19 members in the eurozone and all new members will have to be in the Euro, but that must be a problem in itself as there are conditions to be met before joining the euro. The Greek problem is they fiddled it.

    Gordon Brown signed us up to the Lisbon Treaty and we have an opt out on Sterling and an understanding our participation on ‘further political union’, which remains in the treaty we are signed up to.
    The other 27 members are signed up to ‘further political union’ and it is the intention of the Council to proceed with further integration of political, economic and monetary union, so where does this place Cameron and his bit of the EU. Is Cameron in a dream world? It must be that bit that he has reformed and no one else knows anything about.

  10. catweazle666 says:

    The simple fact that the leader of the fifth biggest economy, fourth most powerful military on Earth and one of only five permanent members of the UN Security Council has to go cap in hand and beg permission to set the tax on tampons from a drunken unelected no-account Luxemburger heading up a democratically challenged kleptocracy that has been unable to find an accountant sufficiently crooked to sign off its accounts for two decades is more than sufficient reason to get the hell out of the EU as fast as is humanly possible.

    Just how degrading can you get?

    • Nigel Greaves says:

      IDS bailing out so soon after the budget must be a good thing for us Brexiteers ~ the Remanents are in disarray this morning.

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