Daily Debrief May 13th

Mark Carney Brexit warning

The Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has issued a dire warning of the consequences of Brexit, reported in most of the media. Of course his comments should carry the same health warning as all the others.  He starts with the assumption that Brexit would slow growth, and reaches the conclusion that Brexit would slow growth.  I don’t believe that he was deliberately put up to it by the government, but it clearly reflects the establishment consensus.

Let’s look at the proposition.  We have the Pound, the currency of the fifth largest world economy, which is doing reasonably well.  They have the €uro, which is the dysfunctional currency of a dysfunctional EU, and is facing political opposition and existential threats across southern Europe. It seems to me that the more distance we put between ourselves and the €urozone, the better the medium-term prospects for the Pound.

There has been an immediate angry response from the Leave Campaign, which has actually called for Carney’s resignation, for taking a political stance, comparing it with the forced resignation of John Longworth from the BCC when he challenged the establishment gloom about Brexit.  John Redwood has rightly pointed out that the Bank of England has a dreadful record when it comes to forecasting.  In Carney’s warning, we see establishment group-think on the march.

Major: Tory Leavers “risk becoming like UKIP” over immigration

Sir John Major (I recall I sat on his selection committee in Huntingdon all those years ago) has warned Eurosceptic Tories that “they risk morphing into UKIP” by banging on about immigration. No John.  But they do risk becoming relevant to voters’ concerns – and to an extent they vindicate the approach that UKIP has taken for years.  Major warns that we shall exclude “doctors and nurses, and the builders and plumbers we need”.  No John.  But we will select immigrants with skills we need – like doctors and nurses and plumbers – and exclude the unskilled, the welfare scroungers, the health tourists.  We shall get the immigrants we need, not just any old Europeans who want to come.

Immigration figures shock

The government has published ONS figures to try to explain the huge disparity between the official immigration figures for EU migrants, and the number of NI cards issues.  And the papers are hugely shocked.  The Sun: “Great Migrant Swindle”quoting Priti Patel who says that “the scale and impact of migration is out-of-control”. Express: “Britain’s 1.5 million hidden Migrants”. Telegraph: “0.9 million the official number; 2.4 m the real number”, adding that 1.5 million additional and unrecorded migrants arrived in the last five years.

In a related story the Telegraph reports that the numbers of Eastern European benefit claimants have doubled in five years.  There were 24,000 in 2010.  There are 55,000 now.  In a sub-headline, the paper says “The extra EU migrants the ONS has found down the back of a sofa are six Newcastles.”

This will add to public concern over immigration, and should tend to boost the Leave campaign.

Vote Leave to challenge the ITV Farage/Cameron Brexit show

Yesterday I reported that David Cameron had refused point blank to have a blue-on-blue head-to-head debate with Boris or Gove.  The Mail headlines the story under the banner “What are you so scared of, Dave?”   However Cameron had agreed to a Brexit programme with Nigel Farage on ITV. Not a debate, but a half-hour interview each.  Now in an extraordinary twist, the official VOTE LEAVE Campaign has threatened to take ITV to court, insisting the plan is illegal as they’re the official leave campaign recognised by the Electoral Commission, and UKIP and Nigel Farage are not.

I firmly believe that all those campaigning for Leave should now be working together, whether part of the official campaign or not.  UKIP is vital to the Leave campaign, as it is the only player on the Leave side able to mobilise large numbers of doorstep campaigners.  Yet there have been rumours that Vote Leave, dominated as it is by Tories, has an important secondary objective – and that is to exclude UKIP, as far as possible, from the campaign.  Some see Vote Leave as a Tory plot to neutralise UKIP.  I don’t like conspiracy theories, but this proposed legal attempt to exclude Nigel Farage from the debate, and to deny him airtime, rather lends credibility to the rumours.

Britain “has given £2.7 billion in aid to ten most corrupt countries”

Cameron will be rueing the day he described Nigeria as “fantastically corrupt” – and not just because of the diplomatic spat that ensued.  His remark has focused attention on the Foreign Aid we give to corrupt régimes.  The Indy reports that £2.7 billion has been given to the world’s ten most corrupt countries under Cameron’s Premiership. One wonders how much of this money has ended up in Swiss bank accounts.  UKIP has consistently argued that Britain’s bloated foreign aid budget should be radically pruned, and limited to emergency relief.  This report underlines the urgency of doing so.

Yet Cameron has now explicitly stated that we should continue giving aid to corrupt countries even though some of it is used for illicit ends. Appallingly irresponsible (and possibly illegal).

Italy “Shackled to the €urozone”

The €urozone crisis hasn’t gone away – and it won’t be over until the €uro is dismantled or re-engineered.  Ambrose Evans Pritchard writes a timely piece on the damage the €uro is doing to Italy, and the serious threat to Italy’s banks. The Greek €uro crisis is also expected to flare up through the summer.

EU anti-smuggler mission “failing”

A House of Lords report says that the EU’s “Sophia” anti-smuggler operation off the Libyan coast is failing to have any material effect. By destroying wooden boats, the operation has forced smugglers to use rubber dinghies instead.  This increases fatalities without disrupting the smugglers’ business model.

High Court challenge over Tory election expenses

The Electoral Commission is planning to take the Conservative Party to court over its election expenses issue.  An on-going investigation by Channel 4 claims that the Tory General Election “Battle Bus” expenses which should have been constituency-specific (items like activists’ hotel bills, for example) were mis-reported as national, not local expenses, which could put many Tory constituency associations in trouble.  This morning the BBC reported a constituency-specific letter, saying “Vote Conservative in Torbay”, and interviewed a lawyer who said that despite the fact that the candidate was not named, an appeal to vote “in Torbay” amounted to local constituency spending.






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18 Responses to Daily Debrief May 13th

  1. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Brexit: The Movie

    Apparently Youtube took it down.

  2. Alan Wheatley says:

    Re: Vote Leave to challenge the ITV Farage/Cameron Brexit show.

    I think “Vote Leave as a Tory plot to neutralise UKIP” is a very plausible explanation. They have form on this from the start of the referendum campaign.

    I think it likely their sub-plot is to be seen as THE reason the country voted to leave, to oust Cameron and his cronies, and to retake control of the Conservative Party.

    There is one prominent member of Vote Leave who’s blog I followed for several years. It was apparent that while on the one hand he was making arguments relevant to the EU that every member of UKIP would support, on the other hand he studiously avoided saying anything positive about UKIP. Further, he took opportunities to attack UKIP when he could have simply kept silent, and was routinely taken to task over this in comments; but this did not change his stance.

    I think the “long game” has been afoot since the demise of Thatcher, and the EU referendum is their long hoped for opportunity to re-position the Conservative Party to where they want it to be. The last thing they want is for UKIP to get any credit for anything.

  3. MIKE MAUNDER says:

    The Bank of England sides with the Government and Opposition, and Uncle Tom Cobley, and gives warnings of doom if we leave the E.U. – SO WHAT ! – Did you expect anything else ? Bean counters of the world unite, in the total detestation of wicked CHANGE. – If change was made for the better, as I firmly believe LEAVING THE E.U. will be, it is still change and we must see it as being dangerous. For a bean counter, anything is dangerous ! ………. Now we must cut Mark Carney a bit of slack. He did well in Canada, then came to the ‘Old Country’ to take up the headship of The Bank of England, and reputation is at stake. I am sure that he feels that he has enough problems with The Bank, without The People’s vote to change things. That is all there is to this, and Cameron probably did not have to push too hard to get this.

  4. Anyoldiron says:

    It seems to be all the SCARE tails are in full swing at the moment-and enjoying every minute of it. However, also with the tails are the SCARE stories about leaving the EU and setting ourselves FREE from Foreign Rule. My Generation fought a full scale WAR to prevent foreigners Governing us THEN, and what if WE had not fought? Just think about it. Remember BELSEN? REMEMBER the other DEATH CAMPS? Before that War ended we were shown in Cinemas IN THOSE DAYS the opening of Belsen and other Concentration Camps. What man did to fellow man. I have never forgotten that-but what if we had not fight in that WAR-how many would have lived OR their children be alive today? If elected MP’s do not want to govern this Country-they should not have stood to become MP’s. Even THEY have to obey the TREATIES they have ratified and never once have they put one TREATY before the people, before they have ratified them. There is no point in having ANYONE in either Houses of Parliament when all THEY can do is obey FOREIGNERS. If the question put was, those we elect either govern this Country by and through our very own Common Law Constitution or empty completely the Houses of Parliament. It is well known and why we went to WAR our own Constitution FORBIDS US OBEYING FOREIGNERS, THAT WAS THE REASON WE WENT TO WAR, AND ALSO MADE VERY CLEAR, “TO DESTROY OUR CONSTITUTION IS TREASON”. The Act of Supremacy 1559 went even further. It included the words: “…all usurped and foreign power and authority…may forever be clearly extinguished, and never used or obeyed in this realm. …no foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate…shall at any time after the last day of this session of Parliament, use, enjoy or exercise any manner of power, jurisdiction, superiority, authority, preeminence or privilege…within this realm, but that henceforth the same shall be clearly abolished out of this realm, for ever.”

  5. Anyoldiron says:

    Shot at Dawn. Do you think this did not happen?

    Sixteen year old Herbert Burden
    Lied about his age,
    To fight for King and Country
    Yet with his life he paid.
    He saw his friends each massacred,
    At the Battlefield of Bellwarde Ridge,
    He bravely faced the firing squad,
    Yet “officially” still under age.
    Now tied firmly to the solid stake,
    A white cloth pinned on his shirt,
    A solitary Priest prayed for him
    Loud came the order then to shoot.
    God forgive those that metered out such “Justice”,
    For those that fell asleep at their post,
    Forgive those that refused to fight,
    Or so terrified they just couldn’t cope.
    Many so young paid the ultimate price,
    Forgiveness will not bring them back.
    They did their best for their Country
    Of courage not one of them lacked.
    Some refused to be blindfolded,
    They stared down the barrels of those guns,
    Guns that they knew would kill them,
    Not cowards when all’s said and done.
    Yet those standing today at the Cenotaph,
    To pay respects to those now dead
    In this year of Twenty-Sixteen,
    There is much that needs to be said.
    In 1914 they at least tried their best
    For their Country and fellow man,
    But “Today’s” Politicians with forked tongues speak
    With no courage to say what they’ve done.
    Others were shot for their fear of dying,
    But their Country remained safe and free,
    Now foreigners strut around and new laws make,
    That have to be obeyed by you and me.
    They deliberately gave away their Country
    Bit by bit over air, land and sea,
    Broken promises, shared ships, new Treaties,
    Put in jeopardy-our Security.
    But ‘ere the sun sets on this Country,
    MP’s will come to know deep shame,
    For those “Shot at Dawn” were far braver
    For Crown and Country they never betrayed.

  6. Shieldsman says:

    Does anyone take any notice of the Governor of the Bank of England, with could and his maybe dose of gloom and doom? Not really we get the same when a Labour Government is in the offing.
    Problems with the EURO are more likely to affect our economy as part of the EEA.
    The sun should be shining, Cameron has his best of both worlds. Odd that I have the smelly one, the CFF, we are surrounded by water, yet the fish I eat is imported from Iceland.

    Does June Sarpong know who Martin Schultz is? Both he and Jean-Claude Juncker do not think David Cameron is a very good European, amongst many things he does not want to take his share of the migrant invasion into Germany.
    Martin SCHULZ – European Parliament http://www.europarl.europa.eu/meps/en/1911MARTIN_SCHULZ_home.html
    Martin SCHULZ; Group of the Progressive Alliance of Socialists and … RT @euronews: Exclusive interview with Martin Schulz: ‘The EU is in a dismal state.

    Isabelle Kumar:In this interview, I will ask you to speak frankly about the state of Europe because we’re all worried… it seems like we’re watching a slow and painful suicide. Are we reaching the point of no return?
    Martin Schulz: “Your description is absolutely right, the European Union is in a dismal state. Forces on the extremes are winning elections and referendums. If we throw into question the essence of the European project, we’re playing with the fate of the next generation, because the 21st century is one of global cooperation and competition between entire regions, not between small countries like mine, Germany: what is a population of 80 million compared to 1.4 billion in China? How can we survive alone in the 21st century? Those who claim that we should bring down Europe and re-nationalise are playing with the security and the future of an entire generation.”

    Isabelle Kumar: Talking about the European project and integration, one of the hot topics these days is of course Brexit. Do you think it’s really possible that Britain will decide to leave the EU?
    Martin Schulz: “It’s indeed possible; opinion polls show both camps are neck and neck. While I hope it won’t happen, it’s not out of the question. But a Brexit would be a disaster both for the European Union and for Britain.”

    Isabelle Kumar: Some say Britain doesn’t play by the EU’s rules and doesn’t want more integration. Why do you want Britain in the bloc?
    Martin Schulz: “Yes. Britain for its part must understand it’s a G7 country because it’s Europe’s second economy, and it’s the second economy because it’s fully part of this single market. So breaking up from that means reducing Britain’s significance, its influence and its economic power.”

    Isabelle Kumar: So you’d agree to even more concessions for Britain?
    Martin Schulz: “No, we’ve negotiated a package on which the British people will now be voting, so when you hear some people say ‘let’s vote No to get a better deal,’ that’s just not going to happen. We already have a deal, it’s now up to the British people to say yes or no.”

    What Cameron and the BBC keep quiet about.

  7. RODNEY OLLEY says:

    I am puzzled and I suspect I am alone. Where were all these threats of dire consequences if we left the EU a year or two ago. Every day we are confronted with an orchestrated line up of notables from all sorts of disparate organisations telling us that everything from job losses to WW3 will result from Brexit; it will be the end of civilisation as we know it. If all this is true, why was it not made known when a referendum was first spoken of? Why waste all the time and money needed for a referendum if it was fully known by the powers that be that we are imprisoned in the EU with only suicidal consequences if we break free? If Mr Cameron knew he had all these experts on his side panting to reveal the awfulness of EU free existence he could easily have used them to crush the ambitions of his Eurosceptic back benchers and all the other Brexiters years ago. The idea of a referendum would have been still born. So did these experts exist in their present form a year or two ago or have they been conjured into existence for a special purpose?

  8. Ex-expat Colin says:

    An Observation:
    Europe’s debt relief proposal:

    We’ll assume Greece can repay its debt, then when it can’t, we’ll assume Greece can repay its debt. Repeat.

  9. Jane Davies says:

    I think Mark Carney has been got at. He was much respected here in Canada, a firm hand on the tiller type of guy and was not under the thumb of any PM, which is surprising as the PM at the time was Steven Harper, a control freak and a conservative who I wouldn’t have trusted with taking care of my Granny for a couple of hours, so it was most disappointing that he upped sticks and moved to London. I think he has been tainted by the present government in some way, no surprise really as everything connected to Cameron and his bunch of crooks turns bad in the end.

    Watching on TV the series “The Cambridge Spies” Eton was (and still is?) a hotbed for recruiting traitors…….just saying.

    • Ex-expat Colin says:

      Isn’t his wife a bit of a weirdy greeny?

      • Jane Davies says:

        I don’t know….she kept a low profile here.

      • Ex-expat Colin says:

        something like this: (Delingpole)

        “So **** off back to Canada, why don’t you Mark? And take your even more annoyingly right-on eco wife with you. There’s a new liberal regime back home now, run by a guy right up your street named Justin Bieber (something like that anyway). When you’re auditioning for a new job – Governor of the Bank of Canada, maybe – and they ask you how you managed to make such a mess of things during your stint as Chancellor Gideon Mandelborne’s obliging familiar here’s what you can say: “Maple Leaf Dobby never meant to kill the UK economy! Maple Leaf Dobby only meant to maim or seriously injure…”


      • Jane Davies says:

        Good article, sharing this on my facebook page, should get a few comments from my Canadian friends. I love it when my ‘thoughts’ on a subject turn out to be accurate. Mark Carney is now yesterday’s man over here and we rarely hear him mentioned now he is ‘over there’!

  10. E.R.Owen says:

    Brilliant film, should wonders for Leave don’t spoil it by having an argument about Nigel,Farage or Michael Gove speaking. They both talk sense but Nigel’s delivery is much more persuasive.

  11. Anyoldiron says:

    I have certain reservations regarding “Vote Leave”, So I will be voting for UKIP-that has been “THERE” for us for quite a while now. Is “Vote Leave” to “Vote to leave the UK? Or ‘vote leave’ to leave UKIP? Or indeed is it Vote Leave the EU? I certainly cannot, and will not take ANY CHANCES with such a NEW Comer when UKIP have been “THERE” for us for so many Years. Constant and relaiable too. Do not take any chances with a “new Comer” landing so late into the frey-I shall still vote for UKIP and no I am not even in UKIP-but i was in a WAR.

    • Jane Davies says:

      UKIP will not be on the ballot paper. It not a general election it is a referendum to vote to leave the EU or to stay in the EU.
      Not sure why you can’t understand that Roger’s blogs, for the couple of years I have been following them, have always been about leaving the EU, how can the UK leave the UK?

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