Daily Debrief May 24th

30 days to Independence Day!

Cameron/Osborne doomathon provokes a fierce back-lash

Yesterday’s papers featured the Treasury report on Brexit and the hysterical claims of Cameron and Osborne about the consequences of Brexit – a recession, house prices slashed, food prices increased, half a million jobs lost.  Today, the backlash.  The Sun’s front page is punchy if not polite: “Brexit doom dossier fury: NEVER MIND THE BO!!OCKS!”, reporting that two junior ministers (unnamed) have threatened to quit.  Bernard Jenkin was cutting: “Ministers are dishonestly talking down this country’s prospects”.  Cameron and Osborne are about saving their careers, not about saving the country.

The Mail headlines “Knives out for Cameron”, adding “Tories threaten no-confidence vote over PM’s shabby scaremongering”.

George Osborne has been repeating his claim that Brexit would especially impact the lower-paid.  He seems blissfully unaware of the wage compression caused by EU immigration, or the job losses happening right now because of EU policies.

The Leave Campaign responds. Arron Banks described the forecasts as “laughable and beneath contempt”, adding that “The Treasury will pump out whatever its master asks for”.  Distinguished economist Patrick Minford said: “At the heart of the Treasury calculations lies a serious attempt to deceive the British people”.

Pretty much all of these claims are based on the proposition that the pound will fall sharply after Brexit.  I’ve said it before but it’s worth repeating: the Pound looks to me a much better bet that the dysfunctional €uro.

Remain edging ahead?

The Telegraph has an “exclusive poll” showing a lead for Remain, and worryingly suggests that key demographics who have supported Leave – older people, men, Tory voters – may be softening. It would hardly be surprising if the apocalyptic headlines of recent days had not had some effect.  We have four weeks left to help the public understand quite how hysterical and unreal the Remain threats have been.

…but housewives swing to Leave

The Express reports a Netmums poll showing a 46%/37% lead for Leave, with mothers expressing concern over the impact of the EU on family life – wage pressures, immigration impact on schools and hospitals – as well as worries over security and terrorism.

UK’s EU presidency after Brexit vote!

In the course of the EU’s farcical revolving six-month Presidency (which is partly responsible for the hyperactivity of the EU institutions), the UK’s turn in the Chair is scheduled for July/December 2017. This raises the intriguing possibility that the UK could hold the Presidency after we have voted to leave – since we shall remain members for the two years of the Lisbon Treaty Article 50 negotiating period.  The government, in any case, has a team working on plans for the UK Presidency.  Somehow I don’t see us doing the job after a Brexit vote.

Austria: Freedom Party pipped at the post

After an amazingly close election, the Freedom Party candidate Norbert Hoffer has failed, by a few thousand votes, to gain the Presidency of Austria. Hofer was ahead by 3.8% after the ballot boxes were counted, but the postal votes, counted later, just barely swung it for his opponent.  Nonetheless for an anti-Brussels party with a robust policy on immigration to come so close is a remarkable achievement.  Austria may never be quite the same.

“A marriage made in hell”

Roger Bootle is a distinguished economist and  Chairman of Capital Economics.  In Monday’s Telegraph he writes a telling critique of the EU’s €uro project, describing it graphically as ” a marriage made in hell”. He outlines the damage it has done in southern Europe, with a lost generation of young people out of work who may never have employment opportunities.  But he adds that the €uro has done no favours to Germany, which has run up an enormous current account surplus, obliging other eurozone states to run corresponding deficits.

He argues that the UK will be impacted by monetary union if we vote to Remain.  If the €uro survives, it will require members to move to full fiscal and political union – leaving the UK in an anomalous position, a permanent junior partner.  If the €uro collapses, we’re bound to be caught in the cross-fire.  We can’t rely on promises that we won’t be involved in a bail-out.  What if Brussels simply increases the EU budget to cope with the crisis?  His conclusion: “In the event of a euro collapse, we would be better placed if we were outside the EU”.  Amen to that.

New Greek loans?

The BBC reports that EU Finance Ministers are meeting to finalise plans for new Greek loans. But everyone knows that Greece can never repay its debts, so there will be no “new loans”.  Any money advanced will be, in effect, a gift.  A grant.  Or is you want, call it a bad debt.

The EU institutions are desperate to delay the outbreak of “Greek Crisis” headlines until after June 23rd.  I wonder why?

Turkey sending only “sick and ill-educated” Syrians to Europe

A remarkable report in the Telegraph claims that Turkish authorities are deliberately selecting sick and uneducated Syrians to send to Europe, while keeping capable and educated migrants in Turkey. We already understood that the EU/Turkey migrant deal was disastrously counter-productive.  Now it gets worse.

Green light for shale gas

Many of the papers report the decision in favour of shale gas prospecting in Yorkshire.We must be aware of public concern on the issue (fanned by black propaganda from publicly-funded green lobby groups), and must ensure that the industry is properly regulated and controlled.  Nonetheless shale gas could play a key rôle in supporting energy security and economic growth in an independent Britain.

 

 

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23 Responses to Daily Debrief May 24th

  1. Caratacus says:

    Sir,
    Regarding that ‘exclusive poll’ for the Telegraph, you may be heartened to read John Ward’s analysis here:
    https://hat4uk.wordpress.com/2016/05/24/brexit-now-the-remaindeers-resort-to-poll-disinformation/#comment-667195

    Makes a great deal of sense to me although, as hinted at in the comments, I suspect a more sinister intent may be swirling about in the drains!

    Yrs aye,

    C

  2. I would urge the Brexit campaign to raise the potential for the balkanisation of Europe and specifically, if we vote to remain in the eu, the chances that England and possibly Scotland will be cancelled and replaced by regions.

    This has been a long standing ambition of the eu and I can see this and other unpalatable policies being accelerated if we vote to remain.

    • MIKE MAUNDER says:

      THIS IS NOT A POSSIBILITY, IT IS A FACT !

    • Anyoldiron says:

      The UK is already classed as REGIONS, it was one of the FIRST things Mr Cameron Did when he FIRST came into Government. We in this Country of GREAT Britain and Northern Ireland should never have joined the EEC/EC/EU and more importantly should never have voted to remain in the then EEC especially when we truly believed our then Prime Minister when he told us “There would be no loss of Sovereignty” if we voted to remain in. (Remember that do you?) Our Oath is to our Monarch and to our Country and its FREEDOM and terrible WARS have been fought to remain FREE for all time coming. If there is a choice to be made-it is to all those in both Houses of Parliament, for if they want to remain in the EU, there is absolutely no point at all in having ANYONE in those two Houses of Parliament, especially as the first thing Mr Cameron did when he FIRST came in to power, was indeed to divide ENGLAND into EU Regions, Wales classed as one Region as is Northern Ireland and also Scotland is classed as a REGION.

  3. davidbuckingham says:

    London is now only second to San Francisco in the technology sector but the vast majority of tech professionals are apparently going to vote to remain. The first is absolutely fantastic news, the second disastrous and needs urgently addressing. It’s even raised my normally unraisable eyebrow EU-wise – if it can make even me wonder what about the undecideds? Obviously the tech sector has got there from within the EU so far – so it needs a powerful cost-benefit analysis of the EU’s effect…. this is very powerful stuff and needs explaining and countering – if that’s appropriate. I suspect the general fears about restricting free movement of talent – the anti-immigration lobby – plays a part. Which further emphasises the crucial point about EU privilege – there is a global constituency of talent that London could draw on, and we won’t be excluded from cooperation with european companies etc. The other thing to drive home is what destructive forces the EU has in store for UK Tech post-Brexit. As Steve Hilton has said the UK will have diddly squat leverage after a Remain vote. Please Roger get this on the front burner – fast!

    http://www.cityam.com/237072/why-londons-technology-sector-is-united-against-brexit

    • John S Churchill Jnr says:

      I’m having trouble accessing this link. It keeps resetting! As have many other anti-EU sites I’ve visited lately. Too much of a co-incidence!

      • MIKE MAUNDER says:

        While it may be possible to mess with the internet in order to assist the stay-ins, I have not found anything to worry about John. If you find it is required to check under the bed for anything nasty, before you sleep, then you have a problem. I think you have a problem with your computer, in the same way as many of us. Kind Regards !

      • John S Churchill Jnr says:

        Mike, below. Thanks for the reassurance.

    • MIKE MAUNDER says:

      The Tech people are very smart with Tech items. As far as wisdom in politics goes, they are no better able to understand the situation as the rest of us, and in some cases they are behind the rest of us. The single market would seem to be fine for their needs. An all powerful Super State is not required by them at all !

  4. John S Churchill Jnr says:

    Roger, When a scientific paper is published, before it is take as true by the scientific community it gets Peer Reviewed. Where are the Peer Reviews for all this Treasury nonsense?

    And why is neither side telling us about the details of the EEA Agreement that stays in place whatever the result?

    It is being said that EU immigration is resulting in the need to build real estate equivalent to a city the size of Newcastle. This must be a huge cost for the nation to bear. Where does this cost appear in the Treasury’s, the IMF, etc., etc. analysis?

  5. davidbuckingham says:

    btw has Steve Hilton been approached to be our Lynton Crosby???

  6. Shieldsman says:

    Whilst the ORB pollsters and Lynton Crosby are waging psychological warfare on the voter, out two jokers Cameron and Osborne were threatening the staff at B & Q headquarters with their jobs if they vote LEAVE. If the pair are so desperate, are their jobs more at risk.

    Its all very depressing so I find Michael Deacons satirical comments brighten the day.
    This morning, the Prime Minister and the Chancellor went to Eastleigh in Hampshire to speak at the head office of B&Q. As a token of thanks to their hosts, they’d prepared a special B&Q-themed soundbite, just for them.

    Leaving the EU, Mr Cameron told B&Q’s staff, would be self-destructive. Indeed, it would cause – wait for it – “a DIY recession!”
    The staff stared at him in silence.
    Met with his kind of reception, lesser comedians would have faltered. After the gig, they would have struck the offending gag from their setlist, and sworn never to risk the same embarrassment again.
    Messrs Cameron and Osborne, however, are made of sterner stuff. They weren’t going to abandon good material that easily. Probably the joke had gone over their audience’s heads. The Chancellor decided to give them a second chance.
    The British people had to ask themselves, he said, whether they really wanted to be poorer. Because voting to leave the EU would cause – here it comes, everyone – a “DIY recession”!
    Incredible. Still nothing. Not even a peep. Honestly. These provincial comedy audiences. They were rolling in the aisles when he tried that one out at the Treasury.
    Graciously, Mr Osborne allowed his audience one last chance. Surely they would get it this time.
    He and Mr Cameron, he explained, had spent the past six years dealing with the consequences of the 2008 financial crisis. The British people wouldn’t want another one. So, on June 23, they must vote to avoid… yes, B&Q, you guessed it… “a DIY recession!”

    Silence. Total silence. Not so much as a titter. Even after the third telling.

    Isn’t it time Managements told this pair to stop threaten their staff and to p–s off.

    • MIKE MAUNDER says:

      D.I.Y. – Damned Idiots of Yesterday ! These two fools think that humour is easy, but to be a success with a joke, you must appear to be relaxed. That is their problem for these two. – When, for them, so much is at stake, and so many lies have been told, it’s very difficult to come across as relaxed. Their place in hell is waiting !

  7. Kevan Chippindall-Higgin says:

    I am active on the German and French twinning committees particularly in the field of blue light twinning. I chose these two committees because I speak both languages and in the course of my talks, discovered the Exchange of Experts programme. http://www.exchangeofexperts.eu

    I mention this specifically because of the security scares being bandied about when we leave. Along with the EU states are included places like Turkey and Norway, which one might expect. What perhaps one might not expect are those EU hopefuls such as Georgia, Israel, Morocco and Azerbaijan, to name a few.

    Given that these countries have people in place to arrange for exchanges, there is plenty of co-operation in the security and civil defence fields. This serves to underline that daft as it can be, the EU does have its lucid moments and this is clearly one of them. What it does do is to prove that there is plenty of co-operation with countries outside the EU when it comes to security and emergency response.

  8. Jane Davies says:

    “George Osborne has been repeating his claim that Brexit would especially impact the lower-paid. He seems blissfully unaware of the wage compression caused by EU immigration, or the job losses happening right now because of EU policies.”
    I think he is absolutely aware Roger, he just doesn’t care.

  9. Kevan Chippindall-Higgin says:

    I have just come across this little gem. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Tg4goZxXRZk

    If this is actually on the cards, then the dictatorship and asset stripping mechanism is in place. Can anybody confirm whether this is actually under starter’s order?

    • MIKE MAUNDER says:

      KEVAN: Can’t deny or confirm this, but I am aware that items have been held up due to our referendum. After that, a lot of people who voted to stay-in, will be, or should be very embarrassed. Apart from this being the action of crooks, how dare they try such an illogical and illegal grab to wealth. JUST VOTE LEAVE, AND LET THEM STEW ! I think this may have been drafted by the accountants to the Mafia.

  10. Jane Davies says:

    Having lived in Winchester for many years I still keep in touch via the Hampshire Chronicle….
    http://www.hampshirechronicle.co.uk/news/14510591.VIDEO_AND_PHOTOS__PM_says_leaving_EU_would_be__self_destruct_option__on_Hampshire_visit/?ref=ebmpn
    I read somewhere, the Mail I think, that one young employee, who it was stated was an immigrant to the UK, (why that should be relevant is beyond me) that after listening to these two muppets and having a selfie taken alongside Osborne she decided there and then to vote for leaving.

  11. foxbarn says:

    this might make your readers laugh, though some I sent it to didn’t realise it was a spoof:

    * * *https://www.facebook.com/doreentiptonlazycow/videos/527898177335281/ *

  12. davidbuckingham says:

    LEAVE AND REJOIN THE CLUB OF 168……….
    There are 196 countries in the world. The UK just wants to function like the vast majority – 168 countries independent and sovereign, who don’t feel the need to buy into an authoritarian disfunctional customs union of 28 states to survive. Why isn’t this obvious fact trotted out by leave campaigners immediately someone accuses them of being isolationist? Leaving the EU means we would simply have the same trading conditions of the 168. We cannot let pro-EUers dictate the mindset.

  13. Kevan Chippindall-Higgin says:

    Just seen the stuff about electricity. 1% slack? Is Cameron insane? If we cannot get the nuclear station built, which looks increasingly unlikely, then get the coal stations back on line and to hell with the EU.

    If the lights start going out, it will cause chaos with computers for a start as they all suddenly crash and that is before the effect on productivity, crime in dark streets and road accidents.

    The more I see of him, the more convinced I am that he is madder than Corbyn and that takes a bit of doing. Actually, he is worse than Corbyn. At least Corbyn is not a proven, serial liar. Cameron is in effect treasonous, and for that he must and can never be forgiven.

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