Daily Debrief May 30th

Only 24 days to Independence Day!

“Britain’s wide open borders”

The Daily Mail highlights the massive new immigration problem in the English Channel (or for my readers in France, in “La Manche”).  It quotes the French Coastguard Chief saying “The Channel is the new Med”.  Apparently we have just three patrol boats for 7,000 miles of coastline, as a second boat-load of Albanians is found trying to land in the UK.  The Chief Inspector of the Border Force said that the failure to secure large stretches of coastline was “leaving the back door open to Britain”

Meantime 700+ migrants drowned in the Med in a few days.

The Express headlines “Migrant crisis in the Channel”, warning that the migrant problem can only get worse as long as we stay in the EU.

The Mail also runs a story that two Albanian illegal immigrants to Britain were deported to Germany – which then released them to try again.  Germany, with its massive numbers of migrants, invited deliberately by Frau Merkel, is the big threat.  It may give them an amnesty.  Sooner or later it will give them German passports – and if we vote to Remain, they will all be free to come to Britain.  Note that Albanians are (presumably) merely economic migrants, not refugees or (legitimate) asylum seekers.

Green Belt will be buried under housing if EU migration continues

Chris Grayling wades in with a migration-related point, arguing forcefully that Britain’s Green Belts, already under threat, will be “buried under housing” if EU migration continues – which is inevitable if we vote to Remain in the EU.

“Yet another signpost to the Superstate”

The Express reports that the EU plans to give every EU Citizen a “taxpayer number” as part of a move to “a common corporate consolidated tax base”.  This has been characterised by UKIP MEP Stephen Woolfe as “another signpost to the EU Superstate”.  Personally, I don’t choose to regard myself as a “European citizen”, and I certainly don’t want an EU tax-payer number.

Tory rift escalates

The Guardian reports that the Brexit rift in the Tory Party has widened as prominent MPs call for Cameron to go.Both Nadine Dorries and Andrew Bridgen (who’s appearing with me on E Mids BBC Sunday Politics on Sunday June 12th, against Ken Clarke & Glenis Willmott) have called for Cameron to quit. The Telegraph reports that Sir Bill Cash has joined them. It was an extraordinarily hubristic and risky move for Cameron to set himself against the bulk of his party.  These chickens will come home to roost.

Postal voters “told to vote Remain”

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A row has blown up over an explanatory leaflet sent to postal voters.  It helpfully illustrates the ballot paper – but shows a pencil clearly over the “Remain” box.   Bias, or what?

Border controls in Ireland?

The Irish Prime Minister Enda Kenny raises the hoary chestnut of border controls in Ireland after Brexit.  But there were no border controls before we joined the “Common Market”.  Difficult to see why we need them after we leave.

The £ will drop on Brexit? Why? asks Liam Halligan.

Influential economic commentator Liam Halligan has a thoughtful analysis of issues surrounding the €uro in Sunday’s Telegraph.  He discusses at length the crisis facing the Italian economy and Italian banks.  Like Greece, there is no solution to Italy’s travails as long as it stays in the eurozone, and several political parties are now toying with the idea of leaving the €uro – including the Five Star Movement, with which we sit in the European parliament.  But he also comments on the Pound in the context of Brexit, and makes exactly the same point that I have made more than once on these Debriefs: “Almost every commentator, for instance, accepts without question that Sterling will “fall sharply” if there is a Brexit vote, as that’s what the Bank of England says. Really? Why, then, during recent weeks with the polls neck and neck, has sterling risen sharply against the euro, to stand at a four-month high?”.  (And why, you may ask, has inward investment hit a record high?)

He goes on to argue that the €uro can only survive with large-scale fiscal transfers and consolidation – but that such an outcome is politically unlikely.  The €uro is not by any means out of the woods.  The crisis is far from over.  And if we vote to Remain, we’ll be caught in the back-wash.

Boris and Antarctica

Boris Johnson comes up with a striking claim: “The only continent with lower growth than the EU is Antarctica”.  He rightly describes the EU as a “graveyard of low growth and unemployment”, and asks why we all genuflect to the EU’s much-vaunted “Single Market” when it has conspicuously failed to deliver growth.  Good question, Boris,

Ex WTO chief “Brexit will be a huge blow to UK economy”

The BBC (who else?) features yet another dire Brexit warning, this time from Peter Sutherland, a former Chief of the WTO.  Sutherland is described as “an Irish International businessman”.  He was also – you guessed it if you didn’t know already – a European Commissioner in the 80s, so he is (I suppose) in receipt of an EU pension.   No conflict of interests there, then.

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15 Responses to Daily Debrief May 30th

  1. Ex-expat Colin says:

    BBC Countryfile yesterday…Cameron and Boris interviewed by a man like Harrabin (a bit). Don’t think thats the business of BBC or its Countryfile junkets. Everybody wearing green boots?

    Same as they wailed about Trump in the USA on the World Service…he said so and so to the Vets on bikes but gave no evidence…oh dear! Also selected about the dumbest two at that gathering to slag off Trump and anybody in view really.

  2. Shieldsman says:

    Postal Voting
    The fact that the Council Electoral Officer considers it necessary to include an illustrated voting instruction form underlines the necessity to assist some members of the Public on how to fill in the form. Saying that because no X is shown, it is not an explicit instruction to tick that box, it still remains an implied visual instruction, fulfilling the aim of how to vote.

    I am angry. Our Eton educated PM who tries to change the meaning of the word sovereignty has the audacity to say I am immoral and disloyal for wanting to leave the EU. I know where my LOYALTIES LIE, to the CROWN and to the UNITED KINGDOM. In the 1950’s I severed in the Royal Auxiliary Air Force as a volunteer.
    I owe no loyalty to what amounts to a foreign Government.

  3. mike5262015 says:

    I just don’t understand why anyone wants to stay in this E.U. circus ! It has no answer to the migrant problem, but then it has no answers to anything. One of it’s members, Germany, is taking migrants in, but so clearly in order to get them passports for legal entry to all E.U. areas and that will be our own country and others. We British are the last to have any say over our own country and the E.U. area has one of the lowest growth, and highest unemployment rates worldwide. What on earth is the fascination for some British, with this E.U. ? I just don’t get it !
    Good to hear that many Tory members are sick of Cameron’s lies. He will have to go, as so many of his own Party have had enough of his nonsense, and it is interesting to hear people using the words, ‘ General Election.’ If the British electorate were fair minded, and could put on hold their Left or Right allegiance, then with us OUT OF THE E.U., UKIP should be given the chance to govern. A wonderful thing is Democracy. It is taken for granted, until it is taken away. VOTE UKIP, and if these new boys get it wrong, we can get shot of them, and go back to the old ways again. It would be interesting to have M.Ps who have not taken to the SELF INTEREST yet, that is so prevelent in the Commons today.

  4. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Donald J. Trump: Yesterday at 13:00 ·
    The U.S. has 69 treaties with other countries where we would have to defend them and their borders. How nice, but what do we get? NOT ENOUGH!

    oops!!

  5. foxbarn says:

    The ‘out’ camp will lose if it doesn’t wake up that it’s NOT 24 days to voting, it’s NOW and as this piece says, people are filling out their postal vote forms NOW. The entire Brexit campaign should have reached its maximum volume this week and sustain it for another three weeks but I still have people asking when leaflets and posters will be ready. UKIP have been UTTERLY useless; I was promised a poster trailer, we’ve been ready with the posters but now it’s vanished. Good organisation eh?

    • Jane Davies says:

      Roger is not saying it’s 24 days to voting, he say’s it’s 24 days to Independence Day.

      • The Referist says:

        The leave campaign has been pretty varied in its messages and approaches; but all leavers agree on one thing – Leave the EU – or in other words win this referendum. It’s now or never to all intents and purposes unless the vote is marginal, and if it is the fight goes on. A sound margin is needed either way, or the issue will die a death. To persuade the undecideds or even remainders who would leave if they thought we had a well worked out plan and strategy, we should be looking more closely at The Market Solution (FLECIXT) http://eureferendum.com/themarketsolution.pdf as our basis to show them that EFTA / EEA membership is a good start. The question of FoM is dealt with, but at a later stage; yes, we compromise on FoM, which won’t change in the short to medium term whatever ‘solution’ is put forward. A very complex subject going beyond EU level. Rejoining EFTA and staying in the EEA is the only viable way to date to make sure we can wind up the Article 50 negotiations in the two-year period, and the one the government would go down in any case if it loses.

        In short, it’s time the leave side were homing in their message that there is indeed a viable and realistic way of leaving the EU without economic damage and returning democracy to where it belongs. The plan developed by the TLA, i.e. FLEXCIT, key words being flexible and continuous, in the time available to us before the referendum fits the bill and could be a deciding factor in Leave winning, an essential element in the long process that will be Brexit.

  6. Shieldsman says:

    Roger,
    Can you confirm the following:
    The Treaty of Lisbon overturned the previous voting arrangements introduced in the Nice Treaty, and no fewer than forty-five (45) areas of discussion that had previously needed unanimous voting were made QMV.
    They include the EU budget itself, as well as asylum, criminal law, the ECJ, and the ‘common defence policy’.
    There are now very few areas (such as accession) that need unanimity, and there is nothing to prevent the EU from turning them into QMV. They would not even need a new treaty for that. Just the ‘right kind’ of European Prime Ministers round the table, all ready to sacrifice their morals for a quiet life.

    This would mean that everything in European Parliament – DRAFT REPORT on improving the functioning of the European Union building on the potential of the Lisbon Treaty (2014/2249(INI))
    could be implemented under QMV. and an EJC ruling.

    The Spectator has an article ‘The week in EU deceptions’ all about who is telling the biggest Porkies. The Secretary of State for Education, Nicky Morgan gets 5 stars.

    • Brian Weaver says:

      After Brexit, do we not have up to 2 YEARS to amend our trading arrangements with the EU – under Article 50 ?, .Trading would not cease overnight. – if true this demolishes the PMs claim that jobs would be lost etc.

    • John S Churchill Jnr says:

      Passarelle Clause

  7. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Was going to Le Mans with about 5 muscle cars in a few days….looks like thats off.

    Stable Europe…..oh, so it isn’t!

  8. John S Churchill Jnr says:

    The EU has its Internal Market with common external tariffs. The European Single Market, that everybody so admires, derives from the EEA Agreement not the Lisbon Treaty. Voting Leave keeps that agreement in tact. We need to explain the essential differences! The change occured at the time of Amsterdam to provide embryonic new entrants the free trade benefits while they adjusted to Convergence Criteria before becoming full members.

  9. Richard111 says:

    I am disgusted with Cameron cosying up with Kahn.

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