Daily Debrief May 31st

Government misses warnings on ports

The Daily Mail reports how Government Ministers ignored a string of warnings, (four separate reports), that Britain’s small ports were an easy target for people smugglers.

As evidence grows of smugglers repeatedly targeting small harbours, there are fears Britain’s soft underbelly has been left exposed.

The Express, along with many other national titles, also reports on the issue – sparking growing fears Britain is an easy target. Those who wish to remain in the EU need to answer how those fears will be allayed and how we can stop people trafficking when we cannot control our borders.

Immigration crisis delivers a boost to the Leave Campaign

The Telegraph headlines “A significant poll boost” for the Leave Campaign as a result of the flare-up in the immigration crisis and the problems in the Channel.  An ORB poll, previously giving Remain a 13 point advantage, shows the gap closed to 4%.  The paper carries an opinion piece by Sir Lynton Crosby discussing this news.

And the other crisis: Greece and the €uro

Cameron has been denied his aspiration to get the referendum over before the immigration crisis blows up in his face.  But EU institutions are desperate to keep a lid on the other crisis until after June 23rd.  We’ve read lots of stories about how agreement was imminent on a Greek bail-out (the fifth? The sixth? I’ve lost count).  We’ve seen reports that it’s been achieved.  But the story is different in Greece, where finance Minister Euclid Tsakalotos has written to the EU and the IMF saying that his country is unable to deliver on some of the conditions required by lenders.  The Greek crisis (and indeed the wider €uro crisis – see my comments on Liam Halligan’s article in yesterday’s Debrief) has not gone away.  They’re just soft pedalling it for the next few weeks.

“Brexit fears will add millions to industry costs”

The Times reports that “Brexit will add millions to industry costs”. The strident headline amounts to little more than large companies spending perhaps a million pounds apiece to game Brexit scenarios and look at contingencies.  This is no more than small change – the kind of thing large multinationals will routinely do when facing any new situation.

Meantime the Telegraph runs a story that the new Living Wage will damage hopes of recovery. Three points: first, any faltering in the economy will be seized on by Remain and blamed on Brexit – but there are other factors, like the Living Wage, in play.  Second, the Living Wage will massively increase the pull-factor for immigration – swamping any possible benefit from Cameron’s rather trivial “in-work benefits reform”.  And third, as of today the FTSE is at 6270, holding up well in terms of the last few months, while the Pound is edging up against the €uro.  No sign there of huge economic damage from the possibility of Brexit.

Electoral Commission orders postal vote leaflets pulped

I reported yesterday on the leaflet giving advice to postal voters, and showing a pencil hovering over the “Remain” box.  Today, the Telegraph reports that the Electoral Commission has ordered remaining stocks of the leaflet to be pulped.  Please stand up and holler if you find that your Council is using this leaflet, or any similar one.

More than a third of Labour voters don’t know their party backs Remain …

Now there’s a surprise – I’m not sure that anyone has told Jeremy Corbyn that he backs Remain, either. And a great many Labour voters are honest decent folk who believe in their country, and will vote Leave whatever the Labour Party says.

… But the “Grey Vote” is holding up for Leave

The FT runs a report by Joshua Chaffin saying that the “Grey Vote” is undaunted by Brexit. And the reason given is worth thinking about – “because they can remember what life was like before we joined the (then) Common Market”.  They know that Britain can thrive as an independent global trading nation.  Let’s vote for it.

 

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15 Responses to Daily Debrief May 31st

  1. Alan Wheatley says:

    Re postal vote leaflets to be pulped; this should be exploited to the full as an example of the government machine using every trick in the box, if they are allowed to get away with it, to influence the voter. Alerting all voters to this trick will make them wary of other tricks being played upon them by Remain.

    But what will really shift opinion will be to undermine the credibility of the “spin” (a polite way of putting it) that has been shovelled out by Cameron and Osborne. For instance, the demolition of the Treasury’s long term forecast by Patrick Minford pulls the rug from all the doom and gloom predictions that are based upon it. So why is this not at every opportunity being done by Vote Leave? By contrast, they seem to have conceded to the popular impression that Remain have won the economic argument. What a load of duffers!

  2. Ken Dickenson says:

    The fact that nobody from UKIP is being allowed on tv or in the “newspapers” to put these concerns to the populace, demonstrates that this is not a referendum on UK’s future in the World (or the eu),but it is simply a civil war within the tory party.
    If the population do not wake up and say something about it, then they deserve everything which is coming their way from Germany and its eu club.

  3. Dung says:

    At one point in this debate I wondered why Cameron could not see where this was going; the Conservative party split and Cameron out of a job. However of course he could see this coming, he does not care because he is planning his future elsewhere in the EU or more likely in the UN.
    Our mission now is to leave the EU and start the rush that will end it (and Camo’s future plans there).Then we support Trump and watch him pull the financial plug on the UN, oh happy days ^.^

  4. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Might have to attend Wetherspoons more often: (nah..not really)

    “Wetherspoon’s have made 200,000 Brexit beer mats to get drinkers to leave the EU”. And pointed a few fingers at the IMF:

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/wetherspoons-made-200000-brexit-beer-8086454#ICID=sharebar_twitter

  5. Ex-expat Colin says:

    The bizarre £240million ‘Egg in a Cage’ where EU leaders will hold their summits from next year

    :http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3616643/The-bizarre-240million-Egg-Cage-EU-leaders-hold-summits-year.html#ixzz4AERNFHlU

    Keep spending boys. To think that the people who by force paid for that pile of sh*te and those of the future who will keep paying. They’ll not stop will they?

  6. davidbuckingham says:

    The UK Independence movement shouldn’t be hostage to passing events like channel boat people or election graphics. That’s desperate pragmatism. As for the “grey” memory vote – why aren’t the Leave campaign forcefully relating Brexit to the unchallenged independence of the other 168 nations in the world? Why just compare UK performance before and after, with and without, EU membership? Why would we be in any worse position than the 168? As 5th largest trading nation we do have a bit of a head start. We should emphasise the permanent and deep importance of history, ideology and current performance, not coming over as a bunch of chancers.

    • Ken Dickenson says:

      For the remaining few who are now leaving or recently left, school/university and who vaguely know of a subject called “history”, it has been totally rewritten.
      British history lessons now consist of making every English person feel totally guilty for inflicting democracy, education, civilisation, industry and better living standards onto a large portion of the world.

    • vera says:

      Goodbye EU , Hello World

  7. Shieldsman says:

    The single currency is a powder-keg. It represents probably the largest systemic danger to global financial markets on earth. Yet, whatever the catalyst, be it an Italian banking collapse or ongoing turmoil in Greece, as an EU member the UK is on the hook should the euro implode. Consider that when assessing the merits of Remain.

    Its a though Cameron and the BSE crowd live in a gold fish bowl, swimming around in their own little world that Cameron thinks he has carved out of the EU. Cameron thinks he is insulated from the travails of the EURO, not so. Whatever course of action and directives are dreampt up by the Brussels bureaucrats, the EJC will endeavour to enforce it.

    Electoral Commission contacts all counting officers in UK to ban ‘biased’ postal voting referendum guides as council pulps 5,000 leaflets.
    So it is accepted that it is a biased guide and could lead the voter misinterpreting it.
    Bristol City Council – which has already sent the leaflet to 47,000 homes.
    Can the Bristol City Counting Officer guarantee that non of the 47,000 have been misguided into voting to REMAIN. Of course not, so will the Counting Officer issue a new clearly identifiable set of ballot forms?

    This referendum has been unduly influenced from the start by the PM and Government.

    200 members of academia have put their names to a letter openly declaring their self interest in the EU. They wish to continue to receive Brussels largesse, paid for out of the UK’s contributions. the fact of the matter is that the Government have abrogated their responsibility for fully funding education to the EU. This Conservative Government is short changing establishment it would have fully funded outside of the EU.

  8. mike5262015 says:

    WE ARE HEADING INTO DANGER: Put yourself in the position of an immigrant. GB/UK will pay a ‘ Living Wage ‘ so where are you going to make for ? One Agency in my own town, is staffed with Polish, to accommodate East European unskilled and semi skilled workers, with all signs in their languages. This is not something that might happen, it’s there right now and has a few years behind it. Guys working through this Agency are paid rubbish wages, and are happy with their contracts, and live a life of warm bedding, as there are notices on view of cheap shared accommodation. This is in place, ready for much enhanced business very soon. So the wage compression is a fact to our own unskilled and semi skilled workers. I have to state that these guys from the E.U. are in no way benefit scroungers, and to the Companies that they are sent to, they are welcomed. Don’t think for a moment that you, with a Profession to your credit, are clear of this. You are not. This is a social problem in GB/UK, and will be felt by all of us, one way or another, and I have noticed within Money Management, Banking and Law, an increase in Europeans holding good professional positions. Just think about it and adjust your view of continued E.U. membership. VOTE OUT OF THE E.U.

  9. mancunius says:

    A couple of interesting items in the Greek press today. Economic Minister Tsakalotos’s attempts to soften the lenders’ demands have been ‘rejected’ by the Troika. This month (mid-June) the cuts in civil service pay and pensions will be introduced – that’ll bring more angry demonstrators onto the streets. Greek unemployment ‘dipped’ last month – from 24.4% to 24.2%, so not exactly a dramatic improvement! A quarter of the working population of Greece is now without means. Underlining it is a further shocking statistic – 71% of the Greek homeless who live on the streets were made homeless during the past five years, and 21.7% in the last year alone.
    So desperate is the state to stem the flow of non-payment of energy bills, that the president has just declared that the few who have actually continued to pay will be ‘rewarded’ with a 15% discount from July.

    One of the main central Athens luxury hotels, the Ledra, has been closed down due to debt (40 millions of it). Another hit for the zombie debt-holding banks.

    And a report from the islands near Turkey, Lesvos, Samos, Chios: – after the lull, there are now more migrant boats. Greece currently has 52,674 illegally arrived migrants. “160 migrants and refugees have landed on Lesvos in the past five days, marking an increase after a few weeks of almost no arrivals, bringing the total number being hosted on the island to just under 4,000 and stretching resources….The recent uptick in arrivals suggests that Turkey has relaxed the terms of a deal it signed in March with the European Union to control inflows in exchange for accession talks, sources told Skai. The same sources over the weekend reported sightings of buses unloading migrants and refugees at a central square in Izmir, as well as large numbers of small boats along the coast.” So – Turkey backtracking and upping the ante, as we knew they would. They are desperate to continue their valuable deal – sending the EU sick and uneducated Syrians in return for golden passports to the EU for Turkey’s millions.
    http://www.kathimerini.gr/
    http://www.ekathimerini.com/#
    http://www.ekathimerini.com/209162/article/ekathimerini/news/uptick-in-migrant-arrivals-raises-concerns-on-greek-islands

    Capital controls have cost Greece hugely in terms of economic competitiveness – it has slipped down the table six places to become a low 56th among 61 countries measured: one place below Argentina. Poor Greece has become the whipping boy of the eurozone.

  10. Ex-expat Colin says:

    “Non-British EU citizens do not have a vote in the referendum…”

    Apparently some do and are getting polling cards delivered. Poles for one?

    http://order-order.com/#_@/0OFuZkJGgM59kw

  11. Ex-expat Colin says:

    On the subject of Grey Vote…..oh. I forgot. WTF was I saying?

    DT on Why Europe is Fed Up. (Hopefully its much worse than that,such that they do something about it)

    http://s.telegraph.co.uk/graphics/projects/europe-ref-fed-up-vote/index.html

  12. davidbuckingham says:

    The vote shakes down not into any particular policy, immigration, economics, welfare et al, but simply WHO MAKES the policies.

    OK our attempt at a representative, accountable government isn’t perfect, but on a different planet to the EU’s dogmatic, bureaucratic, corrupt, unelected kleptocracy. And which is more reformable?

  13. Anyoldiron says:

    We will NEVER forget, THEY gave their lives for US.

    So many gave their lives for us
    Fighting in two World Wars,
    Yet when “Peace” came at last
    We ask, “What was that war for”?
    Where is that peace we fought for?
    Did we pay to give it away
    To foreigners once more to govern us?
    Did the people ever have a say?

    We were asked once in 1975
    To remain in the then EEC,
    But what is it now in 2016,
    It is nothing like we thought it would be.
    Our Common Law Constitution
    Ignored and deliberately cast aside,
    A new Flag and EU Anthem
    That no Brits can truly abide.

    Yet according to our Constitution,
    We must be free to govern our selves?
    To betray those that gave their lives for us
    Would be like living in a permanent Hell!
    We are forbidden to obey foreigners
    Our Constitution makes that quite clear,
    So WHY are you allowing foreigners
    To Govern us forever more?

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