Daily Debrief June 2nd

Three weeks to go.  21 days to Independence Day

OECD joins the scaremongers

The OECD has joined the long list of organisations warning against the “negative shock” of Brexit.  It has downgraded its UK growth forecast for the year from 2.1% to 1.7%. It suggests that “less openness to international trade” could be a factor.  But outside the EU’s protectionist Common External Tariff, we should have more openness to trade – and the ability to strike our own trade deals with fast-growing economies around the world.

Three things to remember about the OECD: (A) It receives funding from the EU;  (B) Like so many of these organisations, it issued similar warnings against staying out of the €uro – wrong then, wrong now; and (C) it offers no credible rationale for its forecasting – it’s merely rehashing establishment group-think.  Oddly, it even seems to recognise that a weaker pound (which it predicts, again without any credible rationale) could be positive for the British economy – but that’s not reflected in its forecasting.

George Osborne gets his tuppenceworth: Osborne has attacked the leave Camp for its “uncosted and unworkable proposals”. But how does he expect anyone to cost the future when the basic assumptions are in dispute?  Can he cost the economic damage that remaining in the EU will cause over coming years?  And what price does he consider too high to pay for independence, self-determination  and democracy?  Others have paid the price in blood.  I believe that we at least can look forward to an economic bonus from independence.

EU states in disarray over Brexit

Ambrose Evans Pritchard’s article yesterday “Dreamers are tearing Europe apart” started out with EU Council President Donald Tusk’s trenchant criticism of the EU’s “Utopian élites” who (he said) were living in a fool’s paradise, as they rush headlong to ever closer union.  But the later part of the Ambrose article is also worth reading.  He points out that EU member-states are conflicted on how to respond.  They are starting to realise that the EU project itself is at stake.

Paris is pushing for a hard line to “punish” the UK for leaving (don’t expect gratitude because we liberated their country seventy-odd years ago).  They want to make sure that we do so badly that no other member-state is tempted to follow.  But any punitive trade measures would also damage the €urozone itself – arguably more than it would hurt the UK, given the €urozone’s current fragile state.  (And, by the way, it is difficult to imagine what “punitive measures” could be put in place without infringing WTO rules).

Italy on the other hand has pledged not to adopt “a punishing attitude”.  And some calmer voices are warning that a reflex punitive attitude could back-fire, and could compound the damage and enflame eurosceptic revolt across Europe.  My view?  In the end, economic imperatives will drive the plot.  EU leaders will realise that they will need our trade and cooperation.

Two thirds of people don’t believe Brexit would make them poorer

Despite the Government’s determined efforts to paint Brexit as an economic apocalypse, the arguments just don’t seem to be getting through, as a poll shows that two thirds of the voters simply don’t believe they’d be worse off with Brexit.

This is a particular problem for the Remain Campaign.  If voters have already rejected these claims, merely repeating them is unlikely to be effective, and if President Obama didn’t sway them, then it’s difficult to think of anyone short of the Archangel Gabriel who would have much effect. 44% believe that Britain would be in strong position to make new trade deals, compared with only 27% who think the opposite.

Meantime it seems to be the immigration issue which is driving the debate.  With the referendum only three weeks away, I think we have grounds for optimism.  But the challenge for Leave is to convince these voters that Brexit would actually make them better off.

The EU lost £670m to fraud last year

OLAF, the EU’s anti-fraud office, reports that £670 million were lost in fraud last year, mainly in Eastern European accession states – Romania and Bulgaria.  Brussels apologists love to say “Actually, it’s not fraud in the EU institutions, it’s in the member-states”, as though that made us feel any better about losing the money.

Michael Gove: EU rules expose the UK to terror

Under the headline “EU rules expose UK to terror” the Telegraph reports comments by Justice Secretary Michael Gove in which he claims that EU rules, and uncontrolled immigration from the EU, increase the risk of terrorist attacks in the UK.

Meantime Allister Heath writes that there is no safety inside the arrogant, imperial and dangerously unstable EU.  Staying in is a far greater risk than voting to leave, he argues.

Immigration still in the headlines

The Mail reports that the two trafficking suspects thought to have brought 18 Albanians across the Channel had bought their inflatable boat on E-Bay for a mere £3,000, a few days before the crossing. The Express carries a photograph of a makeshift tent camp on the French Channel shore, headlined “THE INVADERS: Migrants set up camps on French cliffs as they wait for boats to smuggle them to England”

The Albanians, by the way, seem to claiming asylum – though their country is not at war.

Meantime Tim Roache of the GMB has urged Jeremy Corby to “speak up on immigration”.   One feels for Jeremy’s discomfiture.  First he’s obliged to support Remain (however half-heartedly) against his deepest instincts.  Then he’s called on to speak in favour of mass immigration and open borders, though he knows that’s anathema to many Labour voters and working people generally. Oh well, that’s politics (if you’re the Leader of the Labour Party).

John Longworth, formerly head of the British Chambers of Commerce, has said that Britain’s current immigration policy is a disaster and must be replaced with a points system.

“EU Referendum: The voters want facts”

So says the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg. And in a sense she’s right.  We’ve all heard it on the campaign trail.  “Why can’t you stop bickering and give us the facts?”, they cry.  But of course they don’t really want facts.  They want to know what the future holds if we vote IN or OUT.  And that’s not a fact – it’s a forecast.  We come back to the old chestnut “Forecasting is difficult, especially about the future”.  The truth is that no one on the Leave side can tell you for sure what will happen after Brexit – and no one on the Remain side can tell you what will happen if we stay in.  We can simply give our best guesses, and our rationale, and clearly the two sides will disagree.

But I agree with Allister Heath (above).  Staying IN – staying on the EU’s runaway train – is a bigger risk than taking control of our future in an independent, democratic UK

Wetherspoons backs Brexit with beer-mats

The pub chain Wetherspoons has printed 200,000 Brexit beer-mats. That’s worth raising a pint to!

Postal Vote “Advice”

Remember that postal vote advice leaflet – which showed a pencil hovering over the “Remain” box on the ballot paper?  Just a random mistake with no malice aforethought?  Not according to Patrick O’Flynn, writing in the Express.  He thinks it was enemy action – and he could well be right.

William Hague’s wishful thinking

On Sunday, William Hague published a thoughtful article discussing how each side in the referendum campaign should respond to the result, whether In or Out.  His first point was that both sides should respect the result, whatever it may be. This suggests to me not only that he fears a Leave vote – but also that he fears a very close Remain vote, which would rather undermine the legitimacy of our EU membership (remember Ted Heath promising “the full-hearted consent of the British people”?

But I was struck by Hague’s suggestion that in the event of a Remain vote, “the next 18 months will be the best chance we ever have to push it (the EU) in the right direction, culminating in the UK presidency of the EU in the second half of next year”.  Hang on William.  David Cameron’s attempts at reform were rejected with contempt by Brussels, even when he had the implied threat of Brexit to back up his demands.  With that threat thrown away, you imagine that Brussels will then allow Britain to “push it in the right direction”?

Let’s get real.  If we vote to Remain, Brussels will conclude that the threat has gone away.  That Britain and its people have capitulated.  That euroscepticism has been put back in its box.  They will conclude that the way is clear for a headlong rush to deeper integration, an EU Army, fiscal union, Turkish accession, an EU superstate — and that dissenting views from the UK can be safely ignored.

We have little enough influence in Brussels today.  If we now vote to Remain, we shall have none.

 

 

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31 Responses to Daily Debrief June 2nd

  1. foxbarn says:

    A great de-brief Roger! This should be broadcast far and wide! Please start asking questions about the Italian banking system, I’ve been tipped off that it’s ‘on the edge’. Of course, they’ll keep this quiet until after the referendum then blame it on Brexit. I’m surprised the BBC aren’t blaming the weather on Brexit.

    • Christopher Browne says:

      And the French are in deep do-do’s, from what I read their debts are so large they have no chance of catching up with them, factor in the state of Portugal, Spain and Greece etc, and you have an unarguable case for Brexit.

      • Christopher Browne says:

        Oh and by the way, the remainians argue that if we leave we will have to negotiate trade deals with 27 different countries in Europe, I thought that the EU was a single entity and that any negotiations would be with IT.

      • vera says:

        We do not need trade deals to trade. Trade is between a buyer and a seller nothing to do with Government. We already import and export with other countries with whom we do not have a trade deal, eg China. Germany will not want to refuse us their cars, and kitchen appliances even when we leave, though I for one have decided to boycott German goods from now on. I am planning on replacing all my kitchen white goods in next few weeks, just in case Remain win and EU puts some silly new rules out, but none of them will be German.

  2. David, 14 years a kipper) says:

    I attended the Out do in Leeds last night, and a labour MP was speaking, he said the split in Labour re eu is much larger than the Top will admit, so it seems the potential for labour voters to vote out is looking good. And it was a well attended event. A Swedish MEP also wished us well in our Great Escape, to the theme tune of same. He mentioned the looming Domino effect, I look forward to that.

  3. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Anyone know where all the labouring type jobs are in the EU (spoon whittling/cheese smacking/fruit picking/tomato tossing etc). Spain and Holland will apply points on UK labourers if we leave…big deal (nursey smacks). As regards professions/high skills, points systems already exist and I don’t think any employer would want you if you did not meet full requirements (points?). So WTF are these european idiots on about?

    As far as I understand it, if you want foreign labour you qualify/hire it, you be fully responsible for it. Your business must not be my (or others) bloody misery. Of course those who really never had a job also never see it that way..its all fun/desired stuff with multi this-n-that bunged in. To hell with the consequences!

    Idiot List:
    “Donald Tusk disagrees with Donald Tusk”
    http://johnredwoodsdiary.com/2016/06/02/donald-tusk-disagrees-with-donald-tusk/

    Yes…and they fail to acknowledge history which will eventually cost them dearly. Trump reminds most with a functioning brain, that the “pay for” time is nearing a close! Certainly hope so.

  4. Anyoldiron says:

    You write Roger, “Let’s get real. If we vote to Remain, Brussels will conclude that the threat has gone away. That Britain and its people have capitulated. That euroscepticism has been put back in its box. They will conclude that the way is clear for a headlong rush to deeper integration, an EU Army, fiscal union, Turkish accession, an EU superstate — and that dissenting views from the UK can be safely ignored.”
    Every word absolutely spot on Roger. Those in our Houses of Parliament TODAY betray all those that gave THEIR lives for our freedom to govern ourselves in that last War (1939-1945) A War that I remember very well indeed for we were indeed bombed out. In “Today’s World” those some freely elect, PAY foreigners to Govern us, which our own long standing Common Law Constitution FORBIDS-THAT WAS WHY WE WENT TO WAR IN THE FIRST PLACE. Sadly in “today’s World” our Government PAY foreigners -the EU- to Govern us yet fill both Houses in our Parliament to the brim, especially the House of Lords to make sure their legislation gets through. Just WHY should the people continue to contribute towards that House of Lords when none can Govern this once GREAT and FREE Country. We can never be FREE as long as we remain in the EU and continue to contribute to it. If the EU is to Govern us by and through the Treaties those some people have elected have ratified-there is no point in having ANYONE in those two Houses of Parliament especially as Mr Cameron divided our GREAT Country into REGIONS of the EU when he first came in to Government.

    • vera says:

      Well that is the plan that eventually all national governments of EU countries will be swept away and the governing done by unelected elite in Brussels. Our Governments are only there for the time being to fool us all into thinking we have a democracy, even if it is a democracy only in name. Once we are safely inside the EU with no means of escape, the national governments will be removed. Won’t be long now. This is what our traitorous government has been planning. You may say why would they do that, they’ll be out of a job. But they erroneously think that they will become part of the ruling elite, they won’t of course (the EU despises the Brits) they are just useful idiots.

  5. “Paris is pushing for a hard line to “punish” the UK for leaving (don’t expect gratitude because we liberated their country seventy-odd years ago). They want to make sure that we do so badly that no other member-state is tempted to follow. But any punitive trade measures would also damage the €urozone itself – arguably more than it would hurt the UK, given the €urozone’s current fragile state. (And, by the way, it is difficult to imagine what “punitive measures” could be put in place without infringing WTO rules).”

    Dear Roger, the Franco German alliance will of course retaliate blaming the UK for all their ills including ISIS, earthquakes famine and plague perhaps the coming apocalypse, they have done the same with Russia and now regret it because their own actions are hurting them. Do not expect sanity in a madhouse. 😉

    • vera says:

      Funny how each country is so stereotypical. Germany cannot help itself grabbing as much territory as possible, even around the pool, France always sucks up to Germany even when they are enemies, Belgium, who?, Brits, awkward ba—-ds refuse to behave.
      Don’t see how they can harm us, their economies are tanking, even Germany. Our leaving will probably bring on the collapse of the EU and a good thing too. Wonderful to put Juncker, Schulz and all those other ugly people on the scrap heap. Kinnockio, Mandelbum and all those other troughers will lose their fat pensions……oh bliss, bring it on. And the cherry – Cameron & Osborne kicked out.

    • vera says:

      Gratitude from the French for the last war – you are having a laugh, aren’t you? They still hate us for Agincourt. Nothing like a long held French grudge. My son has a lovely French lady friend in her early 50s and she told me she’s only recently found out that the French didn’t win at Waterloo. French schools apparently teach that Napoleon won every war. You can see how the EU works – the truth is whatever we want it to be.

  6. So, BBC wants the facts. We all want the facts.

    Here are the facts:

    The UK’s future inside the eu is whatever the eu wants it to be

    The UK’s future outside the eu is whatever the British People want it to be

  7. vera says:

    Willingly giving away the sovereignty of your nation to a foreign entity – isn’t that the definition of treason? It is in my book.

  8. Shieldsman says:

    BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg has that sneering snide look, since when did the BBC present any unbiased facts. They are quite happy to go along reporting Cameron and Osborne’s over the top scaremongering, they never question that it is propaganda of the worst kind. Television announcers take great delight in showing off their recently learnt trick questions and humbling the interviewee.

    The BBC are so pro-EU they clearly back Cameron’s dishonesty. They have been sidetracked, having lost sight of why we are having the referendum. Cameron said the EU is not working and I will fix, which any fool knows he has not.
    Major statements by Jean-Claude and Donald Tusk that the EU is in crisis go unreported by the BBC. The Eurozone and the continuing migrant invasion problems are hidden away, being facts that could be decisive in how people vote.

    Michael Gove is my MP, and the following is an e-mail I have sent him:
    As Secretary of State for Justice what do you intend to do regarding the postal voting advice sent to the electorate in Bristol?
    Electoral Commission contacts all counting officers in UK to ban ‘biased’ postal voting referendum guides as council pulps 5,000 leaflets.
    So it is accepted that it is a biased guide and could lead to the voter misinterpreting it. It is a visual indication of where the voter should place his MARK.

    Bristol City Council – has already sent the leaflet to 47,000 homes. Can the Bristol City Counting Officer guarantee that non of the 47,000 have been misguided into voting to REMAIN. Of course not, so will the Counting Officer issue a new clearly identifiable set of ballot forms?
    If the upper box had read: Leave the European Union What would the PM and BSE have to say? They would have it withdrawn and new forms sent out within days.

  9. mike5262015 says:

    There is no argument or common sense left, for those wishing to stay in.
    Look at so many E.U. member nations that are flat broke, and have little hope in clearance.
    We still have the pound sterling, AND we have the chance to GET OUT OF THE E.U.
    All those that took on the Euro, are rather stuck. Reversal will cause tears !
    Mulish crying by Labour about worker’s rights, is just daft. Our Democracy will correct !
    Our involvement with the E.U. has been built on lies. IT WILL FALL !
    That awkward Frenchman, De Gaulle, was right on one thing. – We are not Europeans.
    Over 40 years have been wasted, with much money, on stupidity.
    ALL VOTE 23-06-16. GET IT RIGHT. NO SECOND CHANCE. VOTE TO LEAVE !

    • mike5262015 says:

      WOOPS ! Just seen a video, via 38 Degrees, that shows the documented history of our E.U. membership. Items marked ‘ Secret ‘ which is strange within Government, but blown apart by the Freedom of Information Act. This video and it’s contents prove the fact about our anti-British governments, as well as the German interest ! When this is watched by the wide British audience, you may not be able to find anyone willing to admit that they had any idea of staying in the E.U. – Rather like my late Father telling me about 1945 Germany, and how nobody had been a Nazi Party member !

  10. Shieldsman says:

    Why wont the TUC admit that all EU directives on working conditions are transferred into UK Law by Act of Parliament. Leaving the EU does not take them away. The EU does not stipulate a minimum wage. It’s Working Time Directive is far below the standards of most European countries. If we applied the WTD here we would lose 8 annual leave days a year.
    Are they still inflicted with the Tolpuddle syndrome and lost their ability to understand the Acts of Parliament. The lefties like being in a Communist inspired empire like the USSR.

    Jean-Claude Juncker, President of the European Commission, popped in yesterday to see President Hollande of France and voiced his and EU support in the battle against French trades unions striking week-long to defend their rights.

    Mr Corbyn and the Labour Party in the extremely unlikely event they ever get into government again can rely on EU support similarly in suppressing trades unions and rolling back the conditions and rights of the working people of the UK.

    • vera says:

      What the stupid French strikers don’t seem to understand is that if it’s impossible to sack a bad employee, businesses don’t take on new staff. Only the useless and lazy need worry.
      Businesses need to make profits, otherwise no business, so they will get round rules which reduce profits and it never benefits the workers. Same with minimum wage, or maternity leave, never benefits the workers. Labour doesn’t understand business.

  11. Oliver K. Manuel says:

    I wish you well in this endeavor to break free of the USSR-type, one-world government will fall apart if you succeed!

    • Oliver K. Manuel says:

      CORRECTION: . . . one-world government that will fall apart if you succeed!

      That is necessary because science is corrupt when all members of “national” Academies of Sciences worldwide are unable to “see” the message now clearly recorded in exact rest masses of ~3,000 types of atoms comprising all matter (See Figures 1a, 1b and 1c):

      http://ierj.in/journal/index.php/ierj/article/download/272/256

      • Oliver K. Manuel says:

        When world leaders united nations and national academies of sciences on 24 OCT 1945 to hide the source of energy that made and sustains every atom, life and planet in the solar system, they inadvertently planted the seeds of revolution that will remove them from power. I beg them to accept amnesty and peacefully resign.

  12. davidbuckingham says:

    You might enjoy Pat Condell’s latest on the referendumb…

  13. Dung says:

    Great discussion today folks ^.^

    Right now I would bet money on Bexit happening but as long as Cameron is in place he could find a way to betray us.

  14. davidbuckingham says:

    French newspaper Liberation has come out for Brexit “TO SAVE THE EUROPEAN DREAM”.
    Anyone care to translate? item c/o The Freedom Association – highly recommend.

    http://www.liberation.fr/planete/2016/05/31/le-brexit-un-sacrifice-pour-sauver-l-europe_1456486?utm_source=4+Freedom+-+2+June&utm_campaign=4+Freedom&utm_medium=email

  15. Jane Davies says:

    Another scare tactic by an Institute that gets funding from the EU……..

    http://citywire.co.uk/money/post-brexit-fall-in-migration-could-cut-pensions/a915793

  16. davidbuckingham says:

    Brexit urgently needs to nail the economic argument to win over floating pragmatists. Explaining the redundancy of the single market, the impending EU threats to the financial sector in the event of a Remain vote, attacking Eurozone weakness and failure and where the heck it’s going over the next weeks, months and years – the fact that the status quo ISN’T ON OFFER, there’ll only be MORE Brussels. Leave shouldn’t get flat-footed about the future – there is plenty of sound economic argument for Brexit and against remaining in the Eurozone. Remain need to be pressed at every opportunity on what Europe will look like post-Remain.

    Empowerment is still the fundamental – wresting control from Brussels to London and from an elite regulatory kleptocracy to representative accountable democracy.

    The immigration argument is partly about economics. The other part is the essential right of the UK to refuse entry, regardless of where someone comes from.

    The immigration case is suddenly getting more nuanced and challenged by Remain, and the explication needs to be very convincing. The focus shouldn’t be to manipulate blue-collar votes by limiting unskilled labour – that is already backfiring by alienating businesses that need it, as well as sounding unjust. Self-sufficiency is the key. Financial criteria like health insurance, ability to pay one’s way, support from family already here, work opportunity offers, individual employment history or entrepreneurial background, should all be centre and front of this. It deals with what Comaround calls welfare tourism.

    Invitation to work is the strongest argument – at whatever level. Economic self-sufficiency eliminates strain on existing services, welfare, NHS etc. In contrast a professional points-based system discriminates against the lower skilled. All sections of the economy and society have their place and fundamental right to a life.

    I’ve never seen mentioned that every self-sufficient immigrant means additional demand for goods and services that they will pay for, which in turn creates the need for more employment in a virtuous circle.

    The issue is not just immigration per se. It’s the privileged position of the EU citizen over those from the rest of the world. Half our immigrants come from the EU, and half from the rest of the world [usually dismissed and defined as non-EU]. That means half of all our immigrants come automatically from 1/13th [500million] of the world’s population [6.5billion?] which is regulated.

    The basic principle of free movement of people is something to be pursued and governments don’t have any right to get in the way. With background checks the UK needs to get back the simple right to refuse entry and get rid of those who break or threaten to break the law.

  17. Jane Davies says:

    “£670 million were lost in fraud last year, mainly in Eastern European accession states – Romania and Bulgaria.” This is all taxpayers money, but what the heck it is a stash of dosh that is in a bottomless pit, there’s plenty more being piled in on a daily basis. Then there is the 12 billion of British workers hard earned being sent overseas with no accountability where it has gone, there are the billions unaccounted for that prevents the accounts of the EU being signed off for the last twenty years and now this…….
    http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/whitehall-government-no-record-of-25bn-spending-public-policy-research-a7060236.html

    Meanwhile the 4% of pensioners who have their annual cost of living increase withheld by the DWP (just because of where they live) are told there is no money to pay them annual indexing like everyone else, all UK state pensioners receive the the third lowest pension in the world, only Mexico and Chile are lower, and the disabled and sick are told to accept more cuts in services due to “austerity measures”. This waste of taxpayers money is no doubt just the tip of the iceberg, what is it going to take before people wake up and smell the corruption? When are the streets going to be filled with protesters?

    We need to be out of the EU clutches of corruption then tackle the corruption that is happening in the UK, sweep out all the politicians who refuse to serve the people as they should be doing and get a government in who have the best interests of the country and it’s citizens at the heart of everything they do.

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