Daily Debrief June 10th

Thirteen days to Independence Day!

The ITV Brexit debate

Last night three leavers (Boris, Gisella Stuart and Andrea Leadsom) faced off against three remainers (Amber Rudd, Angela Eagle and Nicola Sturgeon.  Who won?  I’d say Leave had it by a nose.  And the Spectator agrees with me (no surprise there).  In the BBC’s account, the outers were all on one script (I think that means they had a consistent message) while the remainers were more interested in attacking Boris personally.

I thought that Andrea Leadsom had a particularly good debate – she’s one to watch.

The remain side kept hinting that we were “cutting ourselves off from our largest export market”, as though trade would stop after Brexit.  That’s a bigger lie than the Leave “exaggerations” they complain of.  And Sturgeon’s solution to every problem was “an end to austerity and more investment in public services” – in other words, she’d want to spend more and borrow more. Apparently her solution to the immigration crisis is to let ’em all come – and to supply ‘em all with schools, houses and healthcare at the tax-payers’ expense.

Major Blair scare in Belfast

Yesterday I reported “Osborne terrorises Scotland”.  Yesterday it was the turn of Northern Ireland.  Two grumpy old men – ex-Prime Ministers John Major and Tony Blair – went to frighten the horses (and the voters) in Belfast.  John Major has earned a great deal of respect – indeed almost reverence – by broadly standing aside, as an elder statesman, from today’s contentious issues.  Yesterday he put that reputation at risk.

He was very concerned about a possible break-up of the UK after Brexit.  He obviously hasn’t read the research I highlighted yesterday, showing that a majority of Scots would not see Brexit as a reason to secede from the UK.  Much was also made of the border issue.  Let’s be honest – there will need to be border controls, and that may cause some inconvenience.  But it’s not a reason to give up democratic control of our country.  Many EU member-states have borders with non-EU states.  And the North/South Irish border was managed perfectly well before we both joined the EU.

Only 25% of voters believe Brexit will make them worse off

The key Remain message that Brexit will mean economic disaster is failing to gain traction with voters.  Only a quarter believe the claims, according to research reported in the Guardian. Meanwhile 10% believe Brexit will make them better off (including yours truly).  This is a huge failure for Cameron and the Remain Team.  Despite warnings from all the experts and all the international figures and organisations, the public are just not buying it (and, I suspect, are getting rather bored with it).  They’re right.  The wisdom of crowds.

Britain’s security better outside the EU

John Hayes MP represents South Holland and the Deepings, on my East Midlands patch, and in days long gone I did a certain amount of work with him.  He also happens to be the current Security Minister.  And he has intervened in the Brexit debate to say that Britain’s security can be better protected if we leave the EU – for all the reasons we have discussed, and especially the control of our borders. As Security Minister, he is uniquely placed to understand the issue, and deserves to be listened to.

“Migrant seized every six minutes”

The Express devotes most of its from page to this headline,  highlighting the massive level of illegal immigration.  And that, of course, is only the ones we catch.  Compare and contrast with the estimate that we need to build a new house every four minutes, day and night, to house new immigrants at the current rate.

Cyprus selling EU passports

Apparently Cyprus is selling EU passports for just €4000. Bulgaria, Malta and Spain offer similar schemes, and there are credible reports that EU passports are available for sale in Croatia and Romania.  On the same page is a story that Italy has 600 boats to control migrants; Greece 203; Spain 147.  And Britain?  Three.

It is clear that the EU is unable to control its borders – so we in the UK must control ours, which means Brexit.  We have illegal immigrants, asylum seekers, immigrants with forged papers, immigrants with purchased passports.  Spain has given out EU passports in mass amnesties.  Germany will eventually solve its migrant problem by giving EU passports to up to a million migrants.  Then Juncker doesn’t have to set up a quota system – the new passport holders will go where they want, and we won’t be able to stop them.

Sovereignty is a real issue, not just a state of mind

It’s all too easy to dismiss sovereignty as just nice, rather nostalgic emotional froth.  But Ambrose Evans Pritchard gives it a hard edge.   In a well-argued piece he shows how the ECJ has taken the Lisbon Treaty and over-interpreted it to a point where it (and Brussels) can over-rule almost any decision of the Westminster parliament.  There is too much detail to summarise – but the piece is well worth reading.

National Grid emergency back-up costs rise four-fold

The costs to the National Grid of securing energy supplies has increased to £150 million, as they are obliged to do deals to keep coal plants running as back-up to intermittent renewables.  This is in the context of closures of both nuclear and coal power plants.  So how is this a European story?  Both our over-commitment to unreliable and intermittent renewables, and our coal plant closures, are the direct result of EU energy policies.  Emissions targets. Renewables targets. The Large Combustion Plant Directive.

We can’t promise to put this right after Brexit – first we’ll have to persuade our parliament to repeal the disastrous 2008 Climate Change Act.  But after Brexit, the UK will at least be free to look at that.


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27 Responses to Daily Debrief June 10th

  1. foxbarn says:

    Another brilliant update Mr Helmer! Let’s hope thousands read this and re-broadcast it. I know some people think the public are all stupid but given the facts clearly, they do come to the right conclusions, that’s why democracy works better than any other system.

  2. John S Churchill Jnr says:

    “We hear a lot about “the Norwegian Model”. It’s not the sort of EU relationship we want, as it would leave us liable to free movement, EU budget contributions and much EU legislation”

    As stated by Sean O’heara yesterday we are in the EEA and IT provides the European Single Market rules. For pity sake use this most powerful weapon that we have, even though it does have a big recoil!

    • John S Churchill Jnr says:

      See our posts yesterday that debunk this statement. Sorry Roger this is your Achilles heel.

  3. John S Churchill Jnr says:

    Can someone give me proof that the EU exit door gets padlocked on 31 Dec 2017 and will need 30 separate keys to open it, please?

  4. davidbuckingham says:

    The Irish border issue will dissolve when they take heart from Brexit, compare the Euro to Sterling and vote to leave – again.

  5. Alan Wheatley says:

    Re The ITV Brexit debate
    It has oft been said that “hell have no fury like a woman scorned”, and when you get a gang of three it makes for very unedifying television. I gave up after a while, did the washing up with the rants going on in the background, and then watched the TT highlights, which was very much more captivating.

    These style of debates do not work where the issues are complicated and can not be expressed in a few short sentences. I pity the poor undecideds, knowing the matter is important, conscientiously trying to understand the issues so as to make an informed decision, but blasted with a load of half-truths, partial arguments and wilful misrepresentation with no opportunity to get to the bottom of the matter.

    One thing that sticks in my mind is that the more you play the man rather than the ball the weaker your case looks, and Vote Leave should take this to heart in their technique.

    • Ken Dickenson says:

      Another great showing from BBC last night whereby Dimbleby allowed Question Time to become the “Eddy Izzard Show”.
      However, I think the rudeness and antics of the Izzard creature probably boosted the Leave support.

    • Ken Dickenson says:

      Yes, another “Little Englander” frightened of cutting the apron-strings from Nanny EU. He states that England is too little to negotiate with US, China etc. This confirms my view that it is the Remainers who are Little Englanders and we should shout it back at them.
      Does he not know that the UK is the World’s 5th largest economy? Stupid man, he confirms my belief that the purpose of economists is to make Astrologers (mystic Megs) seem respectable and purposeful.

    • davidbuckingham says:

      Thanks for the headup I left my freepenworth

  6. Ken Dickenson says:

    I think Peter Hitchens needs to update this very good article to include that failed PM, John Major.

  7. Shieldsman says:

    I been interested in what the Labour Party and the hard left Trade Unions (cosying up with David Cameron) find so compulsive for remaining in the EU. EU membership with it many directives and our own (Miliband) Climate Change Act have been responsible for the destruction and off-shoring of much of our Industry and the loss of thousands of jobs in our Industrial heartlands. Rescue of the Steel Industry has been hindered by EU rules.

    It transpires from the Hilary Benn and Andrew Neil interview that they are stuck in the past, they are paranoid in their fear that David Cameron and the nasty Tories will repeal the acts of Parliament on workers rights. When it is pointed out to them that we enjoy 8 days more paid holiday than the EU directive they change tack. I gather Angela Eagle was suggesting that in support of International Socialism we should remain in the EU to ensure the directive is implemented throughout the EUSSR.

    Immigration, oh we believe Cameron and Osborne’s economic disaster scaremongering, so we will just have to put up with it Hilary Benn admitted.

    Osborne in his interview with Andrew Neil:
    “I think the crucial thing to managing migration is first of all not to lose control of your economy but to a) make sure you are restricting non-EU migration which is over half of the migration we get, ***second as you are doing this to make sure you don’t have the abuse of the free movement of people and we’ve got that***. Crucially what you’ve got to make sure is that we have a growing British economy and a growing European economy and the good news is that the ***European economy is growing now.***”
    He must be referring to the non-existent ’emergency brake’. The amendment to Article 45 that Alexander Graf Lambsdorff, Vice-President of the European Parliament said he and his group ALDE, plus his colleagues in the EPP and S&D group would oppose if and when it comes before the EP. Remember way back in February Martin Schulz said he could not guarantee it.

    I debunked the £4300 yesterday.

    • foxbarn says:

      Simple answer on Labour cosying up to the EU: it’s the ultimate gravy train for Bollinger Bolsehviks who’ve never worked a proper day in their lives, except to protest against some perceived wrong and repeat the tedious socialist whine ‘it’s not fair’ whilst completely ignoring the real issues around the world.

    • Alan Wheatley says:

      Good stuff Sheildsman.

      Re the Labour argument that remaining in the EU will prevent the Tories from repealing legislation, their argument is strongly in support of Leave’s case that in the EU our democracy is eroded and we are no longer living in a sovereign country.

      This argument should be used against Labour Remain at every opportunity.

  8. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Sick of hearing this little England stuff. Silly name calling when the argument runs flat!

    Sturgeon…from Leadsome, we understand that by Scotland joining the EU you can over turn a Tory Govt. Sounds about right.

  9. Ex-expat Colin says:

    If you had forgotten about humanitarianism (the global version) then be worried?


    Fortunately he was told to shut up and Nigel Farage did very well (BBC QT almost bearable)

  10. mike5262015 says:

    I do hope the BBC will not invite Eddy Izzard on to Question Time again. The stupidity of this guy advertised that he is not able to handle serious debate. If he owns a contract, or just needs money, put him on Have I Got News For You, where humour is welcome and won’t annoy us.
    As for Blair and Major in Northern Ireland. What damned fool thought that was a good idea ? The War Criminal and the Curry Lover, but in anycase they are both past shelf date, and I don’t think anybody is interested in their views about anything. I must admit that I thought their walking over that bridge would lead to a comic turn. Disappointing. Neither threw the other off !

  11. davidbuckingham says:

    In most debates the old chestnut comes up that we have the EU/EEC/ Common Market/ Coal&Steel Community thing to thank for keeping the peace and the usual rejoinder asserts correctly that NATO [ie US mostly] has kept the peace. However this misses the point – they are referring to internal European peace – especially between France and Germany.

    Monnet simply took advantage of the continent’s total exhaustion after about 40 years of sabre-rattling and conflict and its overwhelming desire for cooperation and trade – as exemplified by the economic-god Ludwig Erhard. It’s a massive tragedy that his blisteringly successful free market approach wasn’t adopted instead. Europe could have been Hong Kong. The authoritarian, quasi-fascist solution by stealth in the French Napoleonic/ Platonic tradition was driven by an elite’s fear and disdain for the electorate. Project Fear already.

    Until Europe mends its ways now it’s up to the UK to be the next Hong Kong.

  12. davidbuckingham says:

    BTW when people ask what will Brexit look like, I say maybe a bit like the 168 sovereign independent nations, 6/7ths of the world, 13/14ths of the world’s population, that make up the countries who don’t feel the need or the pressure to belong to a supranational anti-democratic kleptocracy.

  13. davidbuckingham says:

    ….. and the slowest-growing economic block on the planet other than antarctica….

  14. davidbuckingham says:

    another film on the eu , this one by Spiked but it’s got Martin Durkin written all over it – highly recommend the online publication

    • foxbarn says:

      A lot of people just won’t watch 20 minutes of people TALKING. A documentary needs to SHOW the tangible effects of the EU; men in suits getting in and out of limousines set against the VISIBLE, dirty desperation of unemployment in Greece, Spain and Portugal. It needs to show closed schools in East European countries and crammed schools in Britain…and so on. Winning an argument with the masses nowadays is all about making them see with their own eyes, not telling them your opinion. I’ve been trying to get these points over to the Brexit groups for a long time but they don’t understand modern communication, which is why UKIP only has one MP after 20 years of producing turgid texts in dreadful pamphlets – the arguments for Brexit are overwhelming but we’re on a knife edge, this should have been in the bag last Christmas.

  15. Jane Davies says:

    This is very contagious and will soon hit the UK, although I’m sure there is the odd one or two victims of this already. Too late to close the borders, it can sneak in via legitimate citizens on regular transport!

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