Daily Debrief June 11th

Twelve days to Independence Day!

We’re ahead!  Brexit surges. Cameron and Labour panic.

The Independent and the “i” cite a new poll giving Brexit a share of 55%, weighted for likelihood to vote. This is the biggest lead we’ve seen in the campaign, and clearly shows that (as our American cousins say) “The Big Mo” is with Brexit.  With less than two weeks to go, this clear shift in public opinion could be decisive, though as Harold MacMillan put it, we should still be concerned about “Events, dear boy, events”.  It’s no time to let up – we must drive the trend to June 23rd.

Number Ten Panics: The Telegraph reports that Number Ten is in a panic over these numbers, and their own internal polling. Cameron has admitted in a public meeting that he “fears Brexit”.

Desperate strategy: Attack Boris.  The panic reaction of the Remain Camp is to personalise the Campaign, and to “take out” Boris Johnson. We saw this a couple of nights ago on the ITV debate, when the Leave side presented a convincing case for Brexit, while the Remain side stuck to personal attacks on the former London Mayor.  I suspect that the ploy will backfire.  Boris is popular.  The attacks will be seen for what they are – an admission of the bankruptcy of the Remain strategy.

Labour also in panic mode:  Labour Grandees are warning that Remain could lose, and are seeking to galvanise Labour supporters for Brussels. Good luck with that one, guys.  If the referendum has highlighted splits in the Tory Party, it’s now doing the same for Labour.  Many Labour voters want nothing to do with Remain, and feel their Party has betrayed them.  I don’t often cite the Morning Star (in fact I think this is the first time), but its headline tells the story.  “EU stance could lose Labour an Election”.

“Panicked Labour at war over EU”:  The Mail reports that Labour is in uproar over the referendum campaign. Two Labour MPs, John Mann and Dennis Skinner, have declared for Brexit.  Meantime Labour strategists and activists are finally starting to understand the depth of antipathy to the EU amongst ordinary Labour voters.  Labour is a largely working class party led by a smaller group of middle-class ideologues.  The former are predominantly for Brexit, the latter for Remain.  And the two are coming apart.  Meantime Jeremy Corbyn continues to take stick for his lacklustre efforts promoting a policy he clearly doesn’t agree with.

Both Labour and the Conservatives will have to face up to a major problem.  Large numbers of their voters and activists are instinctive eurosceptics, and are being alienated by party leaders backing Remain.  Win or lose, many of these people will be very tempted to swing to UKIP in the aftermath of the referendum – the only Party which is absolutely unequivocal on the issue.

“Arise Sir Remain”

This punchy headline leads the Daily Mail’s report that the Prime Minister is handing out gongs for loyalty to the Remain camp (and is also, as we know, desperately trying to subvert pro-Brexit Tory MPs – like Sarah Wollaston).

I suspect that this story, repeated elsewhere in the press, will discredit both the Remain Campaign, and the Honours System, in the eyes of voters.  Not a smart move, Dave.

“Migrant Crisis to cost £20 billion” – OECD

The Express reports an estimate from the Paris-based OECD the that current migrant crisis will cost the EU £20 billion.  Countries with a large migrant influx, like Sweden, may find it costs close to 1% of GDP. It is also (they say) undermining confidence in the European project (as Brussels will realise on June 24th).  Interestingly, it says that Brexit could have implications for the EU’s economy – in what appears to be a sharp toning-down of its previous apocalyptic warnings of economic melt-down.

Turkey roasts Osborne

“Oh what a tangled web we weave, when first we practice to deceive”.  We have already noted that Cameron is Turkey’s strongest ally for EU accession when he’s in Ankara – but it’s “not till 3000” back home.  Now Osborne has insisted that Turkey won’t be joining the EU at all, apparently unaware that his comments might actually be reported in Turkey – where they have caused outrage. They should also cause outrage amongst UK tax-payers, since we have a team in our Embassy in Ankara helping with Turkey’s accession bid – and we are providing millions in pre-accession aid to Turkey.

Sir James Dyson declares for Brexit

A couple of days ago we had Lord Bamford of JCB, one of the UK’s largest manufacturing companies and exporters, come out for Brexit.  Now it’s Sir James Dyson – perhaps the UK’s most successful entrepreneur and innovator.  So don’t believe it when they tell you that the whole of industry backs Remain.

Bizarrely, the Remain Camp is spinning it that “Dyson wanted to join the €uro.  He was wrong then, he’s wrong now”.  Does it occur to you, guys, that it’s precisely because he sees he was wrong on the €uro that he doesn’t want to make the same mistake again?  Well done Sir James.

 

 

 

 

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40 Responses to Daily Debrief June 11th

  1. Shieldsman says:

    The People shouted LEAVE
    The Trumpets sounded BREXIT
    The EU came TUMBLING DOWN

    What’s going on in the EU, is there a news blackout by the BBC?
    Read EurActiv.com 8 June 2016, Brexit or not, Europe’s voters are cooler on EU, survey reveals.
    Whether or not Britons vote this month to quit the European Union, fellow voters across the continent are increasingly sceptical of the benefits of staying in the bloc.

    A Pew Research Center survey published yesterday (7 June) suggests the 23 June Brexit referendum will be close, with 48% of British voters polled unfavorable to Europe and 44% in favor.
    They twist the wording around but it means 48% for LEAVE and 44% for REMAIN

    But opposition has also increased in traditionally more positive countries – with a 17 point drop in EU support to 38% in France, for example, over a single year.
    The vector diagrams are interesting, with the Europeans approval of the EU’s handling of the economy very low, and disapproval very high.

    The people shouted, the trumpets sounded and the walls came tumbling down.

  2. foxbarn says:

    Win or lose, the anti-EU movement now is massive. Cameron and the Labour Party (same thing) are toast. Our local quisling Tory idiot MP got laughed at last night in a public meeting; they’re all losing credibility.

    Dyson’s intervention is superb. In fact, last night I was woken by the grim reaper, had to beat him off with my vacuum cleaner. I was dyson with death!!

  3. vera says:

    Some guy in Germany warning us that Brexit would cost us dear. Not nearly as much as it will cost them!

  4. geofflumley says:

    Nigel Farage’s column in today’s Telegraph is more than excellent. I have cut and pasted it and am thinking of making it my email signature for the next few weeks

  5. ian wragg says:

    The latest poster depicting the Leave team as drunkards and philanderers will do nothing to help the Remainiacs.
    Most people can empathise with Boris, Gove or Nigel and they are conducting a very cool calm debate.
    Unlike the Remainiacs who are resorting to shrill sound bites which are only frightening the children.

  6. charles wardrop says:

    Encouraging the Leave supporters to vote is the vital variable, since the remainers are tending to destroy their case now.
    That case rests on a sense of security, ill-advised.

  7. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Of course there are periodic injections of “climate change” from the weak stayers. Amongst the panic wailing of Sturgeon, Eagle and Rudd on ITV the other night the words were placed…its by rote I’m sure? Gotta say it though!

    Bill Cash today…quite a heavy hit from him on the history of corruption/fraud by EU troughers etc:

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3636261/For-30-years-senior-Tory-BILL-CASH-derided-tirelessly-warning-EU-corrupt-superstate-dominated-Germany-events-prove-right-case-against-Brussels-behemoth.html

  8. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Here’s some German junk for you: “Brexit: It’s smarter to stay”

    http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/comment-on-brexit-it-s-smarter-to-stay-a-1096929.html

    I think we got some blame in this….think so?
    “The day after the vote, the British should understand that they themselves helped create this detested Europe that they were so close to leaving, and start building a better one.”

  9. John S Churchill Jnr says:

    A sudden thought came over me! At the recent Paris talks on Climate Change, a UK representative was at the table. But what appears to have happened is that he was (metaphorically) given an EU cap to wear. So why was this? The EU is a Customs Union and only has Legal Personality to make ‘treaties’ on matters of trade. To go beyond that requires all 28 members to sign up individually.

    But by this ruse, the Remainians are claiming that the UK had a bigger VOICE, as part of the EU, on the world stage. In fact the reverse is true. The EU POWER comes from its individual members. Only with a UK signature on a deal could such legislation be passed! Why? Because the EU Constititional Treaty, intended to give it Legal Personality to make International ‘treaties’, failed to get democratic approval. If I am wrong and all 28 individual members (as they did do for the EEA Agreement) did not sign up, the deal that the EU did do is ultra vires.

    So Remainians claims that by giving the EU our proxy (watering down our position) to do deals on the World Stage gives us more clout is bogus. Any such deal, at present, needs the UK to sign it. If so we would be better off withdrawing our proxy and talking directly.

  10. John S Churchill Jnr says:

    “Events, dear boy, events”

    Watch out for “The Vow”

  11. Anyoldiron says:

    THE PROPHECY

    Where are the brave, the gallant and good?
    That we need to defend these shores?
    Many were buried on foreign lands,
    They perished in two world wars.
    The ones still alive are pensioners proud,
    They fought the war in their teens,
    Not for them the nightly flings in the town,
    Clubbing, or drug enhanced dreams.

    Those gentle pensioners tucked up in their homes
    Shabbily treated, and poor,
    Cast aside when they had done their job,
    For them, no one cares any more.
    Who was taken in by promise of power?
    Of peace, and personal wealth?
    Better men than they, were gullible too,
    By the ploy of cunning and stealth.

    When that last war was lost, when Hitler was dead,
    They thought of another way,
    Of an Area of Freedom, Security and Justice,
    And by that, they would rule one day.
    So who is to stop this Country of ours
    being given to strangers to rule?
    Our Gold reserves, our oil, our pound
    Given way by inexperienced fools?

    Yet the dream is destined once more to become,
    A nightmare to all that it touches,
    For Britain at least is the one sceptred Isle
    To be released first from it’s devilish clutches.
    From a most unexpected quarter at last,
    The union will disintegrate,
    True Justice be done, freedom be won,
    For each one of the Nation States.

    • mike5262015 says:

      Keep knocking them out Anyoldiron. I enjoy them. You have a fan !

      • Anyoldiron says:

        Thank you mike5262015. Just for you below to make you smile i hope, is one of three.
        HANDY ANDY.

        “I wish I could talk” said first finger to thumb,
        “It’s not very convenient remaining so dumb”,
        “But you point all the time, and you’re prying and poking,
        Whilst hand is most kind when she’s gently stroking”.

        Looking perplexed, little finger looked up,
        Said, “I only stand out, when I hold a cup”,
        “What use am I then”? asked the one in the middle,
        “I’m flanked on each side and in a right pickle”.

        “I admit I’m the tallest and look straight and true,
        But other than that, what do I do”?
        “My finger is usually adorned with rings”,
        Thus spoke the one whose own praises sings.

        “All of you stop your whinging and whining,
        We all have a use when we are out dining”,
        These words were spoken by thumb, quite grandly,
        “All of us together, come in very handy”.

  12. Jane Davies says:

    See how power corrupts, we have here an unelected minister (just a mouthpiece of the DWP) showing her true colours and forgetting who are the public servants but clearly demonstrating that the EU mindset is all about dictatorship.
    http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/entry/ros-altman-brexit-mps_uk_575a9232e4b00691936563b9

    She is backpedaling so fast now she is in real danger of falling off the gravy train but what the heck she now has a title and all the taxpayer funded perks for the rest of her life and the stupid little englanders will soon forget she has made a complete arse of herself….won’t they?

  13. Jane Davies says:

    These hypocrites are just one family that have become millionaires by pocketing taxpayers money and they are now panicking they will be kicked off the gravy train. Never mind, they will still draw their taxpayer funded pensions, all six of them, to the tune of more than £250,000 a year and all the other perks. I wonder how many more families taxpayers are funding in the millionaire lifestyle?
    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3636143/Greediest-snouts-EU-trough-Not-sure-vote-Read-stinking-wealth-hypocrisy-Brussels-fat-cats-Kinnocks-help-decide.html

    • Ex-expat Colin says:

      Remember this. Marta Andreasen – Concerns over EU’s accounting
      Sacking:
      Andreasen was fully suspended from her job by the Commission in May 2002 (for “violating Articles 12 and 21 of staff regulations, failure to show sufficient loyalty and respect”). She is said to have been suspended from her job and ultimately fired because she refused to sign accounts she believed were unreliable.[10]

      That would be Kinnock if I remember rightly…the sacker!

      https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marta_Andreasen

  14. davidbuckingham says:

    MoneyWeek Magazine says : Brexit Fear Is Over

    On our end, our editors are increasingly convinced that Brexit will have no impact on stockmarkets.
    The pound sterling was meant to be the bellwether of Brexit fears. Leaving the EU would hurt the economy here in Britain. Obviously, the pound should sell off as the referendum gets closer, if it looks like the Leave camp might take it.
    Or so you’d think if you believed all the fear mongering – er, I mean “reports” – from organisations like the IMF and the OECD. They’ve stated plainly that Brexit would be an economic disaster.
    But here’s the rub: the markets aren’t scared.
    As we’ve gotten closer, the odds of leaving the EU have actually increased – the EU has become less popular with voters. Meanwhile, the pound has gotten stronger against its two main rivals: the US dollar and the euro.
    Take a look at this chart that Charlie Morris recently showed his paid-up The Fleet Street Letter subscribers: Source: Bloomberg

    Starting in January, the pound sterling has actually bucked its downward trajectory from a low in April.

    And stocks don’t seem bothered either. The FTSE 100 is about flat for 2016.

    We’ll give the final word for today to Merryn Somerset Webb, editor-in-chief of MoneyWeek. The EU is fundamentally un-democratic. And so there’s no reason that anyone with political power will do voters’ bidding. More likely, it could set off a political battle here in the UK…

    From Merryn’s blog this week:

    Turn to the front page of today’s Times and you will see that our great leaders aren’t even waiting for the referendum to pass before making it clear that whatever the result, out doesn’t actually mean out.

    Only 200 MPs support the Brexit campaign (publicly) and “senior Tories”, says the paper, are planning to “fight a rearguard action to stop Britain leaving the single market even after a Brexit vote.”

    There’s very little actual voting when it comes to the EU – most of the system is run by nominated bureaucrats who were never elected. And the last questions they want to hear are:

    Can we get rid of you? And why did we agree to this again?

    The answer, of course, is “no” in both cases. It’s just embarrassing to them to say it out loud.

  15. davidbuckingham says:

    Possibly the scariest news of all – Douglas Murray on collaboration between Zuckerberg and Merkel against free speech and her migration policy…

    http://www.gatestoneinstitute.org/8234/eu-free-speech

  16. davidbuckingham says:

    The warm bath of the gradually emerging EU has been trying since 1950 to get to the boiling point of political union before the electorate realises and makes a jump for it. The warm bath is not only going a tad tepid all over Europe (eg French vs EU 61%, Greeks 51%?) but while the eurotap has been left running the plug has been left out by the “Elite” plumbers, and now the eurotank is running dry….. I promise not to give up my day job either.

  17. davidbuckingham says:

    Reading a bit more background EU history c/o Bill Cash in The Mail I’m surprised that Brexit hasn’t made anything of the long history from original US blackmail by Eisenhower in 1960 and EEC funding by the US in the 50’s when dealing with the Obama intrusion. The ECSC and its anti-democratic eurocratic mercantilist agenda was not the only way to deal with post ww2 exhaustion and create a united Europe. The secrecy and CIA involvement doesn’t read well.

  18. Shieldsman says:

    I have just watched the Queens 90th Birthday and I could not resist shouting at the television – as an ex-member of the Royal Auxiliary Air Force I am no little englander and I have voted to LEAVE.

  19. Jane Davies says:

    I see on TV that the flags in the Mall were all union jacks, not one of those bits of blue rag and stars amongst them!

  20. catweazle666 says:

    Somewhat off topic, but very amusing and instructive!

    http://www.powerlineblog.com/archives/2016/06/epic-correction-of-the-decade.php

  21. mike5262015 says:

    WHAT IS IT THAT TURNS A GUY TO BE A TRAITOR ? He is born with a silver spoon in his mouth. He is blessed with having well to do parents. He is sent to a top school, although Eaton has to my mind slid down the ranking somewhat. He needs no job as such, and the idea of sweat is foreign to him. He joins a silly club from University. and works off, at other peoples expense, the stupidity of a rich youth, in company with other similar young twits. He marries a charming girl, who is well connected, and Is welcomed with open arms by the Tory Party, which seems to have been made for him. He climbs up the greasy political pole and becomes leader, and then Prime Minister. Not bad going. – From nothing to the top !
    With so many advantages, you would expect David Cameron to be another Winston Churchill, but what do we find ? He belittles his country, as he goes sniveling around Europe, trying to get anything that could look like success from the E.U., which makes him a fool, as Treaties are what it’s all about, and there are no changes. He then turns to lying, big time, with talk of some reform that he has started within the E.U. When that is proved to be preposterous nonsense, he shows himself to be a scared wimp who will not face Nigel Farage in a T.V. debate !
    Although I am sure to VOTE LEAVE, I have to admit to a slight feeling of pity for those holding the opposite view. Their General is seen to lie, and to be without the necessary knowledge for this undertaking. That would be bad enough, but he is also seen to be gutless. Now this vote is not about characters, it’s about all our futures. – I would suggest however, that it is worth being aware of the value of people who wish to stay, and do you want to be associated with them ?
    A TRAITOROUS PRIME MINISTER NEEDS TO FALL ! ! !

    • foxbarn says:

      Well said. I went to the hustings at Excel where Camoron was chosen and I thought then it was a put up job…plus the Conservative ladies were all having hot flushes, god it was awful. When I realised what a slime ball he was, I quit the Tory party.

      • charles wardrop says:

        So had Cameron and his advisers and some close colleagues, to a liberal left position, betraying his (former) Party’s core supporters.
        Maybe that is why Roger Helmer has, likewise, moved to a political position more like that of real Tories, of old,if you like.
        Can such people really be happy with the EU, a foreign, antidemocratic, imperialistic, mess of a corrupt, snobbish gravy train, refractory to change?

    • catweazle666 says:

      LMF – Lack of Moral Fibre?

    • charles wardrop says:

      It’s “Eton College,” Mike.

  22. Anyoldiron says:

    Divided Loyalty.

    How easily fickle man doth embrace
    That flag with twelve stars on blue,
    To dislodge a flag that over time
    Won the loyalty of those that knew
    The brave that fought and paid the price
    To keep their flag flying high.
    That flag of St George for England
    And those that survived know why.

    To prevent a tyrant who would rule the world
    And his swastika from flying above,
    No two flags can have pride of place
    For it is only their own flag they love.
    Yet another flag now wants pride of place
    In our hearts as well as minds,
    But will it become a symbol of hate
    If forced, and in the fullness of time?

    Loyalty and allegiance comes with national flags,
    Those too play an important part,
    We cannot shed either so easily,
    One flag will have to depart.
    Is there a choice, a chance to decide
    Twixt Country, or the State of EU?
    For WE will never embrace that flag
    What YOU do, is up to you.

  23. mike5262015 says:

    Thanks again Anyoldiron for the poems. The last one’s third verse is 10/10 !

  24. John S Churchill Jnr says:

    “The Express reports that England fans at the Euros football tournament have been heard singing anti-EU songs. Despite their ripe language, their hearts seem to be in the right place.”

    To the tune coming round the mountain: –

    You can stuff your useless Euro up your !*%&
    Repeat and similar
    Stuff your useless Euro ‘cos It’s as good as zero
    The Euro really is a stupid farse!

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