Daily Debrief June 14th

Down to single figures: just nine days to independence Day!

The Sun backs Brexit!

In a remarkably well-written and convincing editorial, The Sun makes the case for Brexit.  And gives it a huge splash on the front page.  That should be worth several points in the polls.

Britain on course for Brexit

The Times has a heartening headline “Britain on course for Brexit”, citing a YouGov poll giving Leave a seven-point advantage, up three points since last week.  The momentum is with independence.  The poll also shows a Brexit lead amongst women, and amongst 25 to 49 year-olds.  The Mail headlines the story adding that the Remain Camp is “in a panic”. The Guardian also leads with the story.

The Telegraph tells the same tale, adding for good measure a reference to the BBC which asks the question : Is the EU holding back unpopular new measures until after the referendum?”.  I can answer that one.  I was in a meeting in Brussels where EU Commissioner and Commission Vice President Sefcovic promised “a tsunami of new energy regulation” in the autumn.  As if they haven’t done enough damage already.  But it is interesting that the BBC should report (however tentatively) a proposition which is disobliging to the Remain Camp.

Dan Hannan has an excellent article “Ten things they won’t tell you till after the Referendum” in the Mail. Worth a read.

I agree with Tim Farron: The Lib-Dem leader has said “We have less than ten days to save Britain and make sure we stay an outward-looking nation, standing tall in the world”.  (See Guardian link above). That, Tim, is exactly the objective of the Leave side.  But we achieve it as a great, democratic, independent, global trading nation, speaking for ourselves in international fora.  We can never achieve it as a star on somebody else’s flag, as an off-shore province in an inward-looking, self-referential, protectionist, dysfunctional EU.

Donald Tusk, President of the European Council claims that Brexit could lead to the destruction of the EU (great, if it’s replaced by a simple free trade area), and, more improbably “the end of Western political civilisation”.  I think that Mr. Tusk perhaps attaches too much importance to his dysfunctional European political model.

George Osborne claims that Brexit may be OK for the wealthy, but will hurt the poor.  But given that just about everyone agrees that mass immigration causes wage compression (even Lord Rose, who used to head the Remain Campaign), I believe that Osborne has got his prediction diametrically wrong.  The lower paid have most to gain.

Gordon Brown speaks for Remain

Now that the Remain Campaign has realised that David Cameron is not quite the asset they thought he was, we see him replaced as the lead campaigner by Gordon Brown.  Not a great improvement, you may think.  Brown makes all the usual points from the Remain side – but also promises “a positive campaign” in the last few days.  About time.  Unfortunately Gordon is denying that EU membership is a main cause of mass immigration, and as this flies in the face of both the facts and public opinion, it can do little for his credibility.  He reportedly claimed that UK immigration was “managed, not uncontrolled”.

Ed Balls contradicts Brown: Former shadow Chancellor Ed Balls flatly contradicts Brown on immigration, saying that Cameron’s renegotiated deal to curb EU immigration is insufficient, and that the EU should restore proper borders.

Hilary Benn also speaks (I thought of titling this “Also Sprach Hilarius”): Hilary Benn, son of Wedgewood Benn, has also been on the stump for Remain.  His father would be turning in his grave.  Wedgie Benn said “The test of a democracy is whether you can fire the people who make your laws”.  Tell that to Hillary.

Priti Patel: Turkish accession could bring another 100,000 migrants a year

Employment Minister Priti Patel, a leading Brexit campaigner, has claimed that Turkish accession to the EU could bring an extra 100,000 migrants a year to the UK – and that by itself would breach the commitment to “tens of thousands” made (but not delivered) by David Cameron. Remain counters that Turkey won’t join “until the year 3000” (as the PM puts it).  But they can’t have it both ways.  There is an agreement in place between the EU and Turkey, signed on our behalf by the European Commission, which promises Turkey “accelerated accession” – and for good measure, a visa-free travel régime more or less immediately.  Maybe Juncker is lying – who knows?  But British voters have every right to keep these facts in mind on June 23rd.

Migration Watch predicts five million net immigrants by 2035

The think-tank Migration Watch – which has a remarkably good forecasting record – anticipates five million more net immigrants by 2035 – over a quarter of a million a year for twenty years – if we remain in the EU.

“Proof we can’t stop migrants: 5m given EU passports since 2009”

The Express runs this headline, reporting that nearly 900,000 migrants were given EU passports in 2014 alone (data from the EU itself), and five million since 2009.  This dramatizes the scale of the problem, which is simply unsustainable.

Sterling volatility

The BBC reports that Sterling exchange rate is suffering unusual volatility, as the markets digest the news that Brexit is edging into the lead. We had predicted a degree of Sterling and FTSE volatility around the referendum, so this is no surprise – especially after the tsunami of scare-mongering we’ve seen from economists and politicians.  The markets have a herd mentality, and cannot be unaffected by such defeatist talk.  After Brexit, and when they realise that the sky hasn’t fallen, the markets will stabilise.

The media are blaming stock market volatility on the Brexit referendum – but since the falls seem to be global, rather than primarily UK or European, it seems that global factors rather than Brexit fears may be in the driving seat. OK – we’re the world’s fifth largest economy.  Nonetheless “World stock markets retreat on Brexit fears” sounds just a tad hubristic.

Greek €uro crisis on the boil

Greek Central Bank Chief Yannis Stournaras has called for a re-working of the latest Greek bail-out deal, arguing that the proposed terms are “socially unacceptable”.  They’ve been trying to keep the lid on this one until after the Referendum – but it’s boiling over anyway.

Leading economist rubbishes Treasury forecasts

In a report published by the Cass Business School, economist David Blake rubbishes the Treasury’s scare-mongering forecasts, calling them “grossly exaggerated” and speaking of “extraordinary abuse of economic models”.  He claims that the Treasury ignored “waves of research” showing that leaving the EU would have little effect on the UK economy.  Let’s hope George Osborne reads it.

Police seek to “move on” Leave campaigners

Breitbart rather disturbingly reports incidents from Wales where the police and local community officers have tried to “move on” Leave campaigners.  This is not merely outrageous – it could constitute grounds for a post-referendum challenge if the outcome is tight.

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15 Responses to Daily Debrief June 14th

  1. Ex-expat Colin says:

    “France to deport 50 Russian fans intercepted on their way to Lille after ‘hyper violent’ thugs attacked England supporters”

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3640424/French-police-intercepts-coach-50-Russian-football-fans.html#ixzz4BXuKb3yf

    Funny if Russia refused them back?

  2. MICHAEL R MAUNDER says:

    I have called him everything from a pig to a dog, but Gordon Brown’s message from the ruin of Coventry Cathedral, whilst lacking in substance, had effective theater. It was aimed at those still undecided, and for that audience, it was several times more effective than any attempt given by Cameron. Although the polls are good reading for the LEAVE side, I would suggest that we can’t relax for one moment. Analysis of Brown’s offering should be made, and then something better, to the same audience, must be transmitted. One thing is certain, we have to view such offerings through the eyes of the ditherer, since they have a vote too !

  3. Kevan Chippindall-Higgin says:

    Moving on the leave campaigners is a sinister development given that the Remain lot were left alone. Given that the PCC was actively campaigning for Remain is even worse. Someone who is so politically partisan brings the independence and neutrality of the police into serious question.

    I have never been keen on elected commissioners and this is the reason why. Anybody in a civil service position, elected or otherwise, must be solely concerned with the legality of an activity. Given that we have freedom of speech, these guys should have been left in peace to campaign. If tables were an obstruction, then by all means get rid of them, but that means all of them, including Remain tables, and allow people to peacefully canvass.

    My advice to them is to get up really early and pitch up at the Remain location next time which was judged not to be an obstruction. Doubtless they will get moved on again and hopefully, the IPCC can then get involved. I do not know what the procedures are for abuse of position in the case of the PCC. I wonder if anybody thought of that.

  4. terry sullivan says:

    osborne is exposing himself as a big a fool as boydave–still, never had to work just like boydave so not surprising!

  5. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Energy (I mean CO2 % change)…. the EU 2014-15

    https://notalotofpeopleknowthat.files.wordpress.com/2016/06/image_thumb72.png?w=620&h=370

    Who cares really…not the EU volk by the look of it?

    from the BP Energy Review for 2015

  6. Shieldsman says:

    The Westminster bubble appears to have lost the plot. There is a pro-Remain majority in the House of Commons of 454 MPs to 147.
    However everyone has forgotten why we are having the referendum. Statement by David Cameron 15 Mar 2014 – the EU is not working and we will change it
    I completely understand and share people’s concerns about the European Union. Our businesses value the single market. But they find the degree of European interference in our everyday life excessive. People are worried that Britain is being sucked into a United States of Europ, that may be what some others want, but it is not for us. They see decisions being taken far away, rather than by their elected representatives in Parliament. And they worry that European rules have allowed people to claim benefits without ever working here. As a result, democratic consent for Britain’s membership has worn wafer thin.
    But when we achieve it, we will have transformed the European Union and Britain’s relationship with it. I would then campaign for Britain to remain in this reformed EU in 2017.
    2015 Conservative manifesto: Controlled immigration that benefits Britain Pages 29 & 30
    Our commitment to you: Our plan to control immigration will put you, your family and the British people first. We will reduce the number of people coming to our country with tough new welfare conditions and robust enforcement.
    We will: keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands not the hundreds of thousands. Control migration from the European Union, by reforming welfare rules. Reform the workings of the EU, which is too big, too bossy and too bureaucratic
    When immigration is out of control, it puts pressure on schools, hospitals and transport; and it can cause
    No to a constant flow of power to Brussels. No to unnecessary interference. And no, of course, to the Euro, to participation in Eurozone bail-outs or notions like a European Army.

    Has Cameron achieved any of this – a big BIG NO. The EU is still not working and both Jean-Claude Juncker and Donald Tusk confirm this.

    Labour have no COGENT argument for remaining, Hilary Benn expresses the view of the Party and the TUC the nasty Conservative Party under David Cameron (who they have been cosying up with) will repeal The Working Time Regulations 1998 (SI 1998/1833) is the United Kingdom statutory instrument which implements the EU Working Time Directive 2003/88/EC, so we must stay in.
    Andrew Neil pushed him to admit that EU immigration was necessary for membership of the single market, and therefore worth it. Didn’t Ed Miliband and Mrs Balls say they would control immigration.
    The ignorance of Ed Balls – The UK should demand tougher controls on migration, the deal secured by David Cameron must not be “the end of the story.” WHAT DEAL was that?
    Graf Lambsdorff: EU ‘clearly went too far’ in Brexit concessions. For the emergency brake to come into force, the EU directive on free movement has to be modified, which can only be done with the consent of the European Parliament. Should the Parliament use this opportunity to amend the Council’s proposal? I’m sure that I will certainly not agree to a change of the directive, as it would restrict one of our basic fundamental freedoms. I assume that many in my group, as well as my colleagues in the EPP and S&D group will feel the same.

    The Polls.
    Who is paying Lynton Crosby? Is his big fat bonus disappearing? Who is paying the pollsters?
    How can two polls by ORB taken within three days of each other differ so much?
    ORB Online poll for the Independent – published 10 June Leave 55% Remain 45%
    ORB telephone for the Telegraph – published 13 June Leave 49% Remain 48%
    Lynton Crosby appears to be in charge of the ORB poll which the Telegraph prints.

  7. colin kay says:

    So Tim Farron 10 days to save us, l remember recently someone else saying that we had 100 days to save us from a UKIP VICTORY in the e.u. elections and look what happened to him,had to resign,perhaps Tim saying 10 days will only make it 10% as bad for him.In the end if we don`t win,and l more and more happily think we will, it will not be the end of it and l really belive that all this will crop up again within 5 years.Let`s be honest not many of thought we would be having this so soon,didn`t expect Cameron to get there,and l thought that we would have to wait at least another 5 years for this chance,can`t wait to see the back of him.
    Just another thought perhaps in time Gord and Dave may be viewed as saviors of the U.K.,though not in the way that they intended! LONG LIVE THE REVOLOUTION,POWER TO THE PEOPLE!!!!!!!and F*** technocrats

  8. Oliver Manuel says:

    The 1945 decision to unite nations and hide the source of energy in atomic bombs, in fact, induced social insanity by isolating humanity from the powerful creator, destroyer and sustainer of every atom, life and planet in the core of the Sun.

    Social insanity will be eliminated by the next super-solar eruption (that occurs every ~1,000 years and resets the stage of civilization), if not before.

    http://sciencenordic.com/sun-can-emit-superflares-every-1000-years

  9. Anyoldiron says:

    Can any of us REALLY believe any Politician again?

    You speak of the past, yet the past is now but a hazy memory. The present is but an illusion, a silent thought, the future is the nightmare yet to come.

    Democracy was among the first of those victims to lose its head in those once hallowed Halls where honourable men and women of yesteryear did sit. But yesterday’s men and women fought and won a war, those whose names will ne’re be forgot, yet on they linger in the thoughts of man.

    They that gave ‘their all’ that we might live in peace, freedom and liberty, to be governed by laws the true Brit shall writ. To no man shall we be beholden nor bow, for we are well able to look out for ourselves, a once great Statesman said.

    I have no stomach to speak of truth, honesty or integrity, for they were the next victims to fall by the wayside, yet still ye look to the Crown, alas reduced in the signing of that first document, to just a figure-head.

    Hope is only a promise of deliverance left for you, unless you have “courage” to face that which is yet to come. But the way be strewn with debris that others before ye have cast away.

    Hold high your head, for you are surrounded by those that would harm you.

    Wear well your armour against the traitor waiting at the gate. Your patron saint, St George was indeed well chosen for the dragon spewing forth flames of hate of all things good, feeds on greed and power, a power that will in the end, devour itself.

    Be ye there, you ever faithful countryman, at the ready for it is to you, that those hard pressed forces abroad look to, to once more keep the home fires burning and the welcome light shining through the windows that have been darkened by the rules of strangers that you once extended the hand of friendship to. Remember that those ancient Barons gave you the greatest of all gifts, for it is yours forever.

  10. Richard111 says:

    Roger, apologies for O/T; with regard to the Orlando shooting, please take a minute to read this comment:
    http://thisbluemarble.com/showpost.php?p=559384&postcount=143

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