Daily Debrief June 21st

Two days left to Independence Day!

Telegraph poll gives Remain a lead

image001

Photo from the Indy – believe it or not

The Telegraph has a poll showing the Remain camp ahead 53% to 46%.  The paper relates this directly to the Jo Cox tragedy.  But the polls have been volatile, and a highly emotional news story might well cease to influence voting intentions as the public comes to realise that the actions of one evil and deranged individual should not be the basis for a great constitutional decision.

Sir Lynton Crosby https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lynton_Crosby, the leading political strategist, says the referendum “will go down to the wire”.  Tory MP Dominic Raab says Thursday should be a vote of confidence in Britain, a chance to take back democratic control.  Lord Glasman, a Labour peer, says Brexit would be a chance for Labour to lead “a renewal of democracy”.

In yesterday’s Telegraph Boris makes a passionate appeal to voters to take the last chance in a generation to take control and reclaim democracy, while Andrea Leadsom says “Throw off the shackles and we will thrive”.

The Times gets all schizophrenic

Having declared for Remain, it’s interesting that today’s Times offers us Melanie Phillips: “We’re choosing between freedom and serfdom”, and Matt Ridley “An exciting world is waiting outside the EU”.  Great columnists, great articles, great ideas.

EU threat to pensions

The Mail headlines “EU threat to pensions”.  Professor David Blake, who recently wrote the Cass Business School report rubbishing the Treasury’s Brexit forecasts, outlines a series of EU financial services measures which will add billions to the cost of state and private pensions.

Cameron knew his immigration target was impossible, but kept repeating it

The Mail quotes Steve Hilton, at one time Cameron’s closest aide, who has said that Prime Minister David Cameron was told directly and explicitly four years ago that his promise to reduce immigration to tens of thousands was impossible while Britain remain in the EU – but continued to repeat the pledge. And another thing: even if he hadn’t been told, he should have known.  Which bit of “free movement” does he have difficulty understanding?

The Guardian backs Remain – Telegraph backs Leave

Now there’s a surprise.  The Guardian backs Remain.  And it runs a piece by George Soros saying that Brexit could reprise Black Wednesday. You will recall, of course, that “Black Wednesday” became “Golden Wednesday”, and led to a large and sustained recovery in the British economy.  Maybe not such a bad outcome, George?

Meantime the Telegraph backs leave: “Vote Leave to benefit from a world of opportunity”.

Corbyn: “We should stay in the EU and improve it”

Obviously Jeremy hasn’t noticed that British politicians have been saying that for four decades, and it just keeps getting worse.  All together now: “Jeremy, the EU doesn’t do reform”.  And it will take absolutely no notice at all of the UK if we surrender, and run up the white flag, and vote to remain.   But at least Corbyn has had the honesty (or carelessness?) to admit that there’ll be no controlling EU immigration if we Remain.

Juncker fails to endorse Cameron’s “Project Fear”

Perhaps surprisingly, Commission President Jean Claude Juncker has failed to back up Cameron’s claims for Project Fear.  He appears to accept that Brexit could increase wages, and he doubts that Cameron’s “renegotiation” will curb immigration.  Funny that.  I doubt it too.  And so do the British people.

 Riots in Calais

 The Express reports that migrants in Calais have been rioting, shouting “F**k the UK”, and throwing bricks at British cars.  French police reportedly battled several hundred migrants desperate to get into the UK ahead ofThursday’s referendum – though few would expect an instant clamp-down immediately following the vote.

Fury in Gibraltar over Spanish flag

A large Spanish flag was erected briefly on the Rock of Gibraltar, apparently as a publicity stunt by Spanish interests.  Spanish Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy meantime expressed his displeasure with David Cameron’s visit to Gibraltar.  Since the Gibraltarians are expected to vote Remain, Leave campaigners in Britain may not be too happy about the visit either.

“They’ve stopped laughing now”

Senior Brussels apparatchiks used to laugh at the prospect of Brexit.  Finally they’re taking it seriously. There is talk of other nations – Sweden and Denmark have been mentioned – also wanting to leave.  And the idea of a “Nordic trading bloc” has been mooted.  On Thursday we make a great decision for Britain, which could also usher in a new, dynamic and democratic future for the Brussels’ other vassal-states.

Farage accuses Cameron of exploiting the Jo Cox tragedy

Initially there was a degree of respect shown following the appalling death of Jo Cox a few days ago.  But increasingly politicians and commentators have hinted at a link between the outrage and the Brexit campaign, suggesting that aggressive campaigning on the immigration issue could have contributed to a climate of anger and hate. Few direct claims have been made (though the Daily Star explicitly made the link), but nudges and winks and subliminal messages.   Nigel Farage rightly takes the Prime Minister to task over the issue.

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19 Responses to Daily Debrief June 21st

  1. foxbarn says:

    Great post Roger. Sovereignty, somehow, should be the focus of the final days of the campaign, it’s not about Richard Branson’s billions or Mandelson’s millions, this is about SOVEREIGNTY and if lovers of all things EU want to ‘remain’ and have us suffer the catastrophe, the very least they can do is submit their home addresses to Border Control so Border Control knows where to send the hundreds of thousands due to flood Britain in the coming years. And all those wealthy Tories who are voting for more EU and more immigration can have new estates built in THEIR neighbourhoods.

  2. Ex-expat Colin says:

    yes..EuroTunnel failed for about 9 hours last pm (electrical apparently). My son jumped to a P&O ferry on returning from Le Mans but missed the brick flinger/mouthheads it appears. They should not be anywhere that port/tunnel. Arrest them..deport them. We have enough toothless chat chewers in UK already!

    A mess at our border which would be a massive mess here if allowed to…and a lot of fools here want it to happen?

  3. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Meanwhile (in deepest la, la land)
    “National Grid recruits NHS hospitals to help keep the lights on”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2016/06/19/national-grid-recruits-nhs-hospitals-to-help-keep-the-lights-on/
    WT.mc_id=e_DM129815&WT.tsrc=email&etype=Edi_FAM_New_AEM_Recipient&utm_source=email&utm_medium=Edi_FAM_New_AEM_Recipient_2016_06_20&utm_campaign=DM1298155

    Another crap media… crap URL. I would have missed this piece because its in their Business pages and I very rarely read the DT these days anyway along with many others.

  4. Shieldsman says:

    I find the polls for the Telegraph quite odd, they all appear to be staged managed by Lynton Crosby and are being paid for by the remainder backers. In recent weeks the Telegraph having sensed the mood of their readers have come out quite strongly for LEAVE. The Editorial and the articles back leave, so the Editor must have the backing of the owners, who are quite happy to take Crosby’s money.

    The Guardian, that is no surprise, after Polly Toynbee’s smear campaign. They do not have much of a circulation.

    I see Branson is jumping up and down again. He must believe (been told) that he stands to lose money if we leave the EU. He is not acting for the UK or the Public, like all the big money men it is self interest, I doubt they know anything about the workings of the EU.

    If you want a cheer up read Quentin Letts in yesterdays Mail – Flashman was back, picking a fight with TV audience
    Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3649605/Flashman-picking-fight-TV-audience-QUENTIN-LETTS-night-s-TV-debate.html#ixzz4CCNd48sL

  5. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Also a couple of area mental problems:

    1. Brit kid tries to kill Trump and is an illegal in the USA
    2. Silly boy Beckham comes out for Remain…too rich to know much?

    • Ex-expat Colin says:

      At least we now know what David Beckham thinks we should vote.
      Next up, what flavour crayon he prefers…?

      H/T OH

  6. Robert Bentley says:

    If you require an example of what Nigel was commenting on yesterday regarding the Remain taking advantage of Jo Cox’s murder, just listen to Cameron’s and Kinnock’s eulogies yesterday in Parliament. Absolutely despicable.

  7. Shieldsman says:

    Last week when the Sun newspaper came out for leave, the Guardian had an article on the history of its Editor. Of the Guardian readers who commented many suggested they were intellectually superior.

    Today the Sun has: – I’ll change EU David Cameron pleads with voters to choose Remain so UK can reshape EU. DAVID Cameron today calls on wavering voters to give him a powerful mandate to reshape the EU for the better by voting to stay in it on Thursday.
    Well the readers comments are erudite, logical and sensible. The short summing up is – a load of bollocks.

    The polls and the betting. You can change your mind up until the time you make your cross. Once you have placed your bet you cannot.
    The book for the referendum was made sometime ago with a few punters placing large bets. The odds did change a bit last week when voters for leave placed small bets. Apparently after the murder of Jo Cox large sums of money have gone on remain. It does not numerically represent voting intentions.

    The ORB poll for the Telegraph has always shown about 5% greater for remain as against other polls, especially on-line, so make of that what you want.

    Richard North goes on about sovereignty today.In the UK, we express our sovereignty in terms of national sovereignty, which defines the extent and limits of its jurisdiction. And then award the ultimate expression of sovereignty to Parliament. Within its domain, Parliament is supreme.

    On that basis, we are indeed still sovereign. Parliament, if it so decides, has the right to abrogate the treaties from which the European Union gains its power in the UK. Without those treaties, there is no supremacy of EU law. Unless Parliament decides otherwise, EU law has no writ in this land.
    To which I made the comment – It is the failure of Parliament and in a sense the referendum presents a constitutional crisis. The PM and the majority of MP’s do not want to return power to Westminster but leave it in the hands of the European Union.
    If we vote to leave then we are telling our elected MP’s that it is they that have to reform, as they cannot reform the EU.

  8. MICHAEL R MAUNDER says:

    Just heard Cameron in Downing Street. When his opinion has been taken out, because it’s dressed as facts, he got down to what we all know and agree about. These are the real facts at last; – The vote is irreversible, and will effect us and generations to come. THESE ARE FACTS and I welcome these facts so long as we are OUT AND CLEAR OF E.U. MEMBERSHIP. The odd card in the pack, is the Republic of Ireland and our land boarder with them, as well as what could be, a strained relationship at local domestic level. I think we are up for it !

  9. Francesca Macfarlane says:

    re The Project Fact Battle Bus tour.

    Organisers please don’t upset the inhabitants of Bridgnorth by misspelling the name of their lovely town. There is no ‘e’ in it!

  10. MICHAEL R MAUNDER says:

    Exactly three centuries before my birth, a battle was fought at Naseby in Northamptonshire that changed the old way of the Divine Right of Kings. That battle in 1645 brought our Civil War to a close, and although Charles II was brought back, and the Republic became a Kingdom again, Parliament was the power. Slow but sure over the three centuries, the people, all of them, had a vote to decide which Party they wished to be the Government.

    Reform to the election system is required, due to the Nation having more that two Parties, but that just shows how reform is constantly required. Along the way, we were distracted and joined someones idea of a Super State of Europe. The reason for this at the start was sensible, but it became corrupted, so that today we almost have the Divine Right of Commissioners, and that has to be changed. We do have some progress, as back in the 1600s men reached for their swords, and today men and women reach for their ballot paper. We are free men and women who are used to Democracy, and with that system, we the people govern our old country with a vote each five years. We will not turn the clock back and become modern serfs to an immovable, and unelected group of foreigners. We wish the countries of Europe well, and look forward to trade and friendship with them, but WE WILL NOT BE GOVERNED BY THEM ! – Your vote this Thursday is the bloodless battle of a Civil Conflict. VOTE OUT FOR DIGNITY !

    • Jane Davies says:

      Wow Michael, at the end of your comment I imagined you astride a horse, full battle armour on and rousing the troops into battle…….can I use part of your last paragraph, the bit from ‘we are free men and women’? Great stuff!

    • Bernard Hough says:

      “We are free men and women” but for how long if we are commited to the E.U. immigration policies?
      When it comes to a general election and a particular seat has a muslim candidate, does a `true muslim` have to vote for him/her?
      We also know that postal ballot papers have been rigged in the past.
      If this is the case then at an election where the party vote is divided then that candidate has an advantage,
      After a few general elections if shia law is introduced then that freedom for women would be a thing of the past!

  11. Bernard Hough says:

    Following Mr C.s comment on suspending the in/out campaign (quite rightly) after the murder of Jo Cox, I may have missed some interviews on TV but the ones I did see invited to give a eulogy were all `in` campaigners wearing their `in` lapel badges really obviously for all to see, as viewers wondered why the `outs` were not contributing.
    Were they deliberately not invited by the biased media or did I miss them?..

  12. Alan P says:

    Can someone explain why Corbyn has failed to take the opportunity to take Cameron on?
    We are told Cam will be “toast” if brexit wins, Corb had already said he’s no EU fan, most Conservatives are expected to vote out and most Labour supporters are expected to vote in.
    Perhaps I’m being thick but I’d have thought given the appalling campaign Cam has orchestrated, Corbyn has turned down an open goal. And nobody seems to have noticed.
    Or is he more afraid of Boris??
    Would love to hear a few opinions.

  13. Sue Stuckey says:

    Jo Cox tragedy post referendum there’ll be more: White Helmets’ work in Syria and US govt intervention to stabilise/destabilise region (more refugees in Europe); funding by financier Geo Soros + his intervention in EU debate on behalf of Remain; ‘Bad Investment philanthropy of Geo Soros and the Arab-Israeli conflict’ http://www.ngo-monitor.org/books/bad_investment_the_philanthropy_of_george_soros_and_the_arab_israeli_conflict/ . Husband Brendan high profile NGO work Children in Need charity (he left quietly in November 2015: his LinkedIn profile needs updating – investigations hushed by prominent UK politicians). He also keen supporter of White Helmets.

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