Daily Debrief June 29th

That second referendum: a logical absurdity

Two questions for Jeremy Hunt. Hunt has written a piece arguing that the UK should now negotiate new trade terms with the EU, and then submit the new deal to the British people in a second referendum. They could vote in the full knowledge of what to expect.  What is the problem with that?  Quite a lot, in fact.

Brussels will know that any new deal will be put to a referendum.  They will seek to design an offer guaranteed to be refused, so that British voters will vote NO, and preserve EU membership (I hesitate to call it the “status quo” – EU membership has never been a status quo, but a work in process).  They will therefore offer the minimum, or perhaps nothing at all.  They’ve already said that Cameron’s re-negotiation is the best we can expect.  So this is a guaranteed route to failure.

But just suppose they did make a half-credible offer.  Suppose it were to be put to the British people.  If we voted YES, so be it.  But if we reject it – does that mean we want to remain in an unreformed EU?  Or does it mean that we reject the compromise and therefore want to revert to the previous position of June 23rd – a rejection of EU membership?  This whole idea is a logical monstrosity, a recipe for confusion on the greatest issue of our time.  We’ve voted OUT.  We must now get out.

Sajid Javid to push for Single Market access: Business Secretary Sajid Javid has said he will push for “access to the Single Market”.  These are weasel words.  If he were honest, he would say “continued membership of the Single Market”.  All developed countries have access to the Single Market.  Some have free trade deals, some don’t, but they all sell goods into the Single Market.  So shall we.

Younger people have a problem

I am alarmed to hear young people complaining that the electorate has ignored their issues, that older people don’t understand them, that we have deprived them of their rights.  http://qz.com/715653/to-young-people-in-the-uk-brexit-is-a-door-closing-and-a-sign-that-hate-is-winning/

Let me remind all seventeen year olds: we older people were once seventeen too.  We understand their hopes, their fears and their aspirations, because they were ours too.  And in my own case, after thirty years managing international businesses and seventeen years in the European parliament, I can assure them that on average, typically, older people understand the EU issue a great deal better than many of them do.  And far from being unconcerned about the opportunities of the young, we older people have children and grandchildren whose future welfare is a key issue for us.

I was on the BBC East Midlands Politics Show last Sunday with a young man of seventeen who had previously heckled Boris Johnson on camera (he also seemed to be the son of a Labour Councillor – although the BBC didn’t mention that).  He made those very points.  My answer: we’ve given you back your country, your democracy, your right to elect and dismiss your own government.  We’ve given you back a great global trading nation, not an off-shore province of a nation called Europe, with all the world-wide economic and other opportunities that brings with it.  You should be weeping tears of gratitude, not crying into your beer.  The problem, of course, is the vast weight of EU propaganda out there in our schools, aided and abetted by the BBC’s pro-EU stance, that has confused and corrupted the minds of our young people.  We have a big job to set matters right.

Cameron’s Brussels Summit

Yesterday Cameron was called to the Headmaster’s office to explain himself and to face six strokes of the cane.  His excuse?  His failure in the EU referendum was the fault of the EU’s failure to control immigration!  Bet they just loved that.

The Mirror claims he faced “humiliation”, and maybe for once it’s not wrong.  The issue comes down to this: if we want the Single Market (and UKIP doesn’t), we must also accept free movement.  But that’s what most Brexit voters were voting against.  The Single Market solution is a non-starter in the face of the June 23rd vote.  The Express has a different take, headlining “Brexit vote is the EU’s fault” – as, indeed, it is.

The Times strikes a more up-beat line headlined “Cameron’s immigration ultimatum”.  He reportedly told EU leaders that they’d have to curb migration and free movement if they wanted a trade deal with the UK.  It’s good to hear Cameron, however belatedly, speaking up as if he believed in his country, and recognising that trade with the UK is a valuable asset that Brussels would not dare to lose.

However the EU is absolutely wedded to freedom of movement, and EU leaders have insisted there will be no more concessions.  If Cameron had struck that self-confident stance earlier, in his failed renegotiation, he might have done better.

… and Farage addresses the European parliament

Yesterday in the European parliament’s emergency debate on Brexit, Nigel Farage gave a solid broadside against the dying and dysfunctional European project. He reminded them that when he arrived in Brussels seventeen years ago (both he and I were first elected in 1999), he was laughed at for suggesting that Britain might leave the EU.  And as he put it, “You’re not laughing now”.  The anger in the chamber was palpable.  Nigel was abused, maligned, vilified and booed.  We should be glad that he has the resilience and strength of character to stand up for his country in the face of such hostility.  It helped, of course, that he was right.  And even more that his stance had been vindicated by the British people on June 23rd.  Independence Day.

Cameron & Farage: It’s the EU’s fault: The Express unusually puts Cameron and Farage in the same headline: they both argue that the Brexit vote is the result of EU intransigence, especially on the immigration issue.

The BBC: talking Britain down

The BBC has pounced on the FTSE sell-off and the slide in Sterling to sow doubt and despondency about the Brexit decision.  I’ve been asked again and again “Doesn’t the slide in the markets prove that Project Fear was right all along?”.  No it does not.  Volatility was entirely predictable around the Brexit vote, and I and others in fact predicted it.  Brexit is about months and years, about our children and grandchildren, about freedom and democracy hopefully forever, and to pretend to judge it on a couple of days trading, while traders are clearly responding to the dire warnings from the Remain camp and the Treasury, is absurd.

The Times picks up the story, reporting that the Footsie bounced back yesterday — though true to form it predicts further problems.  And as I have argued repeatedly, the slide in Sterling may be just the tonic our economy needs.  OK, it will cost you more to go on holiday, or to fill your Jaguar with imported petrol – but Jaguar will sell many more British-made cars abroad.  It will boost exports.  Medium term, Brexit will galvanise our economy, free it from the trammels of EU regulation, and drive prosperity, growth and jobs.

The stock market sell-off seems to have been a global phenomenon, including Wall Street.  And while I can well believe that the Brexit vote could affect European bourses, it would surely be hubristic in the extreme to imagine that a referendum decision in Britain could bring Wall Street tumbling.  There are global problems out there which go far beyond the Brexit issue, and are partly responsible for the Footsie’s slide.

Tory leadership battle

The Telegraph reports a poll showing that only Boris can reach out to swing voters across the nation to achieve a Tory victory, despite a Conservative Home poll showing Theresa May marginally ahead (amongst its readership, at least).

BoJo storms ahead: The Sun reports that the Johnson camp is claiming the backing of 100 MPs – despite the Tory Whips pushing for Theresa May.  I worry about Boris’s attitude to the “Norway Plus” model, but surely he is a better choice that the grey, drab Theresa may, who despite efforts to seem neutral on Brexit was in fact campaigning for Remain.  If the Tories want a woman leader, look no further than Andrea Leadsom, who gave such sparkling performances in the Brexit campaign.

!cid_image001_jpg@01D1D1FB

(Photo from Twitter)

Another Ice Age?

The Mirror reports that the quiescent state of the Sun (the star, not the newspaper) suggests that we may face a new cold period like the “Maunder Minimum” that lasted seventy years in the seventeenth century, and led to “Frost Fairs” on the River Thames. Is that an EU story?  Well it casts a sharp light on the absurdity of the EU’s climate policies, which at best drive industry, jobs and investment – and emissions – overseas, and now, it seems could be made utterly irrelevant by real-world developments.  Lord Lawson’s Global Warming Policy Forum believes that following the Brexit vote, the new Tory administration, may take a more rational view of energy policies once free of control from Brussels.

 

 

 

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51 Responses to Daily Debrief June 29th

  1. terry sullivan says:

    Hi

    is there any damage we can inflict on the bbc–it is behaving like a Lord Haw-Haw and only reporting negatively

    • John Burnett says:

      I have also found the BBC to be so. I began to wonder if the extension of the license fee was a payment in advance for their ‘cooperation’

  2. foxbarn says:

    The FTSE is 15% up at 6300 since the Feb low of 5498, WHERE MR.BBC, IS THE CRISIS??? Total, utter, bare faced Guardian lefty idiot LIES.

  3. ian wragg says:

    Roger, there must never be a second referendum. This vote is more legitimate than both the general Election and the Welsh devolution referendum.
    We don’t want a Norway solution, the single market is a smoke screen.
    If the 3 basic demands are not met then it will be UKIP with knobs on at the next election
    Control of Borders
    Westminster making laws
    End of financial contribution to Brussels.
    Non of these are negotiable.

    • John Burnett says:

      From the rather shifty observations of yesterday’s summit I beginning to think that repudiation of the Act of Accession should be seriously considered

    • Kevan Chippindall-Higgin says:

      I sincerely trust it will be UKIP with knobs on regardless. Nigel Farage and UKIP delivered the referendum and are now being frozen out of Brexit talks, which is scandalous.

  4. Shieldsman says:

    Those whinging 17 year olds who did not have a vote and all those remainders with their pieces of paper in extra mural studies think we oldies should not have been allowed to vote. Would they have been satisfied if we had passed an exam on the EU working before being allowed to vote?

    Well Cameron seems to have remembered why he called the referendum. Freedom of movement is a non starter in any Article 50 negotiations. To recap: –
    Statement by David Cameron 15 Mar 2014 – the EU is not working and we will change it
    I completely understand and share people’s concerns about the European Union. Our businesses value the single market. But they find the degree of European interference in our everyday life excessive.
    People are worried that Britain is being sucked into a United States of Europe, that may be what some others want, but it is not for us. They see decisions being taken far away, rather than by their elected representatives in Parliament. And they worry that European rules have allowed people to claim benefits without ever working here. As a result, democratic consent for Britain’s membership has worn wafer thin.
    But when we achieve it, we will have transformed the European Union and Britain’s relationship with it. I would then campaign for Britain to remain in this reformed EU in 2017.
    2015 Conservative manifesto: Controlled immigration that benefits Britain Pages 29 & 30
    Our commitment to you: Our plan to control immigration will put you, your family and the British people first. We will reduce the number of people coming to our country with tough new welfare conditions and robust enforcement.
    We will: keep our ambition of delivering annual net migration in the tens of thousands not the hundreds of thousands. Control migration from the European Union, by reforming welfare rules. Reform the workings of the EU, which is too big, too bossy and too bureaucratic
    When immigration is out of control, it puts pressure on schools, hospitals and transport; and it can cause social pressures if communities find it hard to integrate,
    No to a constant flow of power to Brussels. No to unnecessary interference. And no, of course, to the Euro, to participation in Eurozone bail-outs or notions like a European Army.

    That is exactly what the Labour heartlands voted for. Are the Labour Party going to deny them it?
    Miliband had it carved in stone – Controls on Immigration.

    But what a pickle Jeremy Hunt and the leadership contenders are in. They want the single market but not FOM. Why do they not settle for EFTA and WTO?

    • John Burnett says:

      What the younger generation don’t realise is that the older generation can smell a stitch up before they can even comprehend it

    • catweazle666 says:

      “Those whinging 17 year olds who did not have a vote…”

      Given the performance of the 18-24 year olds, at least two thirds wouldn’t have bothered to vote anyway. But that wouldn’t stop them whinging, that’s what they do.

  5. Ken Dickenson says:

    The big falls in Wall Street shares is nothing to do with Brexit. The Wall St fall has been predicted for some time because it has been kept artificially high. This has been done by large companies buying back their own shares, thus artificially creating highs.
    Some well known strategists, economists and traders in the USA are forecasting a Wall Street crash, a housing/real estate bubble burst and even the collapse of the $US.
    Nothing to do with Brexit.
    Perhaps something should be done about the BBC.
    PS: Dimbleby’s face was priceless last week when he had to announce the Leave result. I thought he was going to cry.

  6. catalanbrian says:

    Can you please explain to me just how much better off the UK is now that the electorate has decided to leave the EU. And more importantly what are the plans for the UK economy that you Brexiteers must have ready to implement?

    • Roger Turner says:

      Cannot answer your 2nd question – would like to hear one myself.
      If it is any help for your first question.
      a) You will have an opportunity for proper Democracy back, the ability to make your own laws and not be subject to the overriding foot of the ECJ on any aspect of our life and in particular our Supreme Court.
      b) It is the intention of the EU to introduce Corpus Juris, our law is descended from Magna Carta and its derivations, which Includes Habeas Corpus (Body must be produced in court within defined period and charged, if not must be let go) British Justice is based on the principle that the accused is innocent until proven Guilty, Corpus Juris is the opposite, meaning Habeas Corpus is not in operation, and accused often stay in jail for months before trial or even 1st court appearance (nb not sure if EAW will cease on Brexit)
      c ) If we remained IN our permanent seat on the Security Council, would be confiscated and as we only have 1/28th of a seat at the top table on subjects of Foreign Affairs our ability to bounce back onto the world stage and at least reconnect with the Commonwealth, which we let down so dreadfully -would be ZILCH – we would have been truly back in our box to which Mr.Obama so unerringly directed us – you know the one
      “The EU Care Home for Failed Elderly European Nations”
      Oh I`ve news for the Fair Maid of Perth – I hope she realises that if Scotland re-enters the EU after making her escape from us, that Corpus Juris with supersede Scotland`s “Special” system of justice (Go on tell me that`s “not Proven”)
      d) To have remained would have left you a supplicant member of what I call the “Evil Empire” – they`re not very nice to their supplicant members Greece, Cyprus and not much more help to Italy, Spain and Portugal)

      • John S Churchill Jnr says:

        “I hope she realises that if Scotland re-enters the EU after making her escape from us, that Corpus Juris with supersede Scotland`s “Special” system of justice (Go on tell me that`s “not Proven”)”

        Quite so!

    • ian wragg says:

      Welcome back the man who is Brussels mouthpiece. It must have been a shock for your system on Friday when Leave won.
      Farage will keep us informed if our leaders start to back track and if they do UKIP will wipe the floor with them at the next election.
      The Communist inspired entity which is the EU has just had a nasty shock and I doubt it will recover. Italy’s banks are the next problem.
      In answer to your question1. the shares I bought are now up 12%.

    • catweazle666 says:

      Nose out of joint, Brian?

  7. Ex-expat Colin says:

    The pics of the loons in Trafalgar Sq/Westminster yesterday are here:
    “PICS: Brexit Hate And Anti-Democracy At Pro-EU London Protest”

    http://www.breitbart.com/london/2016/06/28/hate-extremism-pro-eu-anti-democratic-london-protest/

    They’ll go far…NOT! We’ll be better off without their influences thats for sure.

    Whats with all the weeping women MPs and so on? Soubry, Eagle FFS

  8. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Just arrive and do what you want…this is what those t*ssers want at the London demo yesterday, until they get in their space! Mummy will clear them away?

    “Family of 16 Romanians with young children set up home under a London flyover by one of London’s busiest roads after arriving in the UK two weeks ago”

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3665474/Family-16-Romanians-young-children-set-home-London-flyover.html#ixzz4CxyyMm21

  9. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Clegg just called Farage an idiot and childish (BBC J Vine show). And Clegg is what? Nothing mainly!

    Merkel says UK can’t dump responsibilities and keep the privileges. Does she mean pay for the privileges, cos thats what we do.

    • Ex-expat Colin says:

      J. Vine giving plenty of BBC airtime to the juveniles of the EU..name calling mainly. Problem is for them is that Farage has had 17 years of it….meaningless, just as they are.

  10. John Burnett says:

    There is a missing, and necessary, element in this discussion, which is the ability to forgive. I attribute this to the fact that most do not know, or have never been taught, how to forgive. Briefly when you can entirely comprehend the reason for the other’s action you have forgiven them.

    • Dung says:

      Wrong John

      There are far too many people who are manipulating events for their own personal gain (and the losses born by others). I understand that but will not forgive it.

      • John Burnett says:

        Dung you don’t have to concur with the actions that you disapprove of, only comprehend why they acted in that way. By forgiving you free yourself from the entanglement and regain a clearer view of the situation – it’s a matter of a view point leading to a mindset that impedes clear thinking, which appears to be necessary from the discussion so far.
        By refusing to forgive you limit your own freedom

  11. Dung says:

    Roger

    One of the few branches of science not so far enveloped in the global warming scare paradigm is the branch which studies the sun. People who follow that science have known for years that this situation was coming but it does not get reported by the BBC and other mainstream media. Right now there is not a single sunspot on the face of the sun meaning the sun is almost totally inactive. The situation is almost identical to that which existed when the ‘Little Ice Age’ existed. The Maunder Minimum was the second of the two cold periods that make up the LIA and it actually lasted abut 120 years from 1580 to 1700.
    Scientists can not say fro certain that it will happen again even though the conditions are the same but it is a bloody stupid time to be screwing around with our power generation industry!

  12. Kevan Chippindall-Higgin says:

    One suggestion that I have come across is to treat Scotland and Northern Ireland like a Greenland and Faeroes arrangement, but in reverse. Denmark stayed and they left. We leave and they stay while still part of the UK.

    I have not given this idea much thought, but at first glance, it seem horribly complicated. Constitutionally it would be a nightmare while the practical issues would be horrendous, especially if the lunatic Scots went for the euro. However, it is an option, maybe not a very good one, but an option nonetheless.

    Any ideas anybody?

    • vera says:

      Eu has already said they cannot remain in the EU if UK leaves. Scotland must also leave and reapply. Not sure what currency they intend to use. Groats?

      • catweazle666 says:

        ” Scotland must also leave and reapply.”

        First, the Scots will have to apply to Westminster for another enabling act to set up a new referendum on independence, which is unlikely to happen. But if it does, and if by some miracle Wee Krankie manages get the Scots to vote against their best interests, they will promptly forfeit the Barnet funds, and be around £12-£15 billion worse off.

        And after all that they will get their application vetoed by at least Brussels and Spain, who have their own problems with groups – the Walloons and the Catalans – seeking independence, so will certainly not wish to set a precedent.

        Not going to happen, just hot air from the Scotz Natz wind-up artists.

    • Dung says:

      The UK has been an incredibly successful economically, militarily and culturally and it would be sad if it were to end. However I do not believe you can hold people against their will and so periodically it should be ‘renewed’ by the people of the individual member countries. I think the option of a referendum of all member countries should be available at agreed intervals but not every 5 minutes as the SNP seems to desire.
      Until and unless member countries vote to leave the UK then The UK government should continue to make decisions on non devolved issues.

    • Ex-expat Colin says:

      Don’t believe that Sturgeon has authority as regards foreign affairs, so she just went on a junket with lunch. Although wee eck reckoned she was going to discover the “end game” which can be put to the Scots. And then they are all for it?

      Then it goes into erecting borders, moving our military out (Faslane and ranges). Not sure what happens to the big HMRC place in Glasgow. Messy anyway!

      They are supposed to goto DevoMax I thought…seems quiet on that?

    • John Burnett says:

      How about creating a North Atlantic trading alliance of which Scotland and N I could have associate membership provided they policed their borders thoroughly with fines for any illegal immigrants, say a modest £1,000 per head and the ‘illegal’ returned to Scotland or NI. Meanwhile their own citizens could have full UK visas in exchange for tariff free Scotch or Bell’s, but haggis would be barred. We would be free of the ridiculous Barnett formula and they could trade on their own with the euro currency. Also HS2 would not have to go on to Edinburgh, Parliament would properly represent the indigenous population, we would not be obliged to police the NI ‘troubles’ “And the voice of the turtle would be heard again in our land”

  13. Shieldsman says:

    Well who organised the demo of all those ignorant young people yesterday?
    It wasn’t the SWP. In April they launched a united left-wing campaign to exit the EU on 23 June. A number of groups, including the Socialist Workers Party, the RMT union, the Communist Party and Counterfire, agreed yesterday, Wednesday, to launch #Lexit: The Left Leave campaign.
    Corbyn – That why it’s disappointing that Jeremy Corbyn, who used to argue powerfully against the EU and voted against its weaker predecessors in 1975, is today making a major pro-EU speech to pledge Labour’s support. This will help Cameron—indeed he is relying on Labour to deliver him the vote he needs to survive.

    The Labour voter did not play ball, having had enough of migrants taking over the neighbourhood

    The BBC, a friend of mine started the petition https://www.change.org/p/department-for-culture-media-sport-bbc-to-stop-broadcasting-anti-brexit-propaganda?recruiter=88932259&utm_source=share_petition&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=share_email_responsive
    You can sign up to it.

  14. Shieldsman says:

    The pickle the Government is in with Brexit. Whose responsibility?
    The Daily Telegraph Editorial: Boris Johnson and other leaders of the Leave campaign have been denounced for not having a fully fledged plan for Brexit. But this wilfully misunderstands the purpose of a referendum. David Cameron called the vote, so it is hardly outrageous to suggest he should have made some preparations for what happened if he lost. That, after all, is the Government’s job – not to second-guess the outcome. It was never in the gift of Mr Johnson, Michael Gove et al to instruct Whitehall to make contingency plans, because the official government position was to stay in the EU.

  15. Anyoldiron says:

    We could keep on having a “SAY” until we get it RIGHT. Right?

  16. MartinW says:

    Andrea Leadsom seems very sound on economic matters, but on the vital energy sector, I would say, BEWARE. The following is an extract from Busness Green concerning Leadsom at the Energy Select Committee this morning, 29/6/16:
    http://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2463212/andrea-leadsom-insists-clear-path-ahead-for-renewables-investors-despite-brexit-fears
    During the hearing Leadsom also insisted UK energy policy would not change as a result of the referendum result. Echoing comments from Energy and Climate Change Secretary Amber Rudd this morning, Leadsom said the Climate Change Act secures the UK’s long term low-carbon ambitions, and insisted Britain would continue to co-operate internationally with the EU and others on tackling climate change. “In my view, as I was always very clear all the way through the campaign, in energy policy I don’t believe anything will change,” she said. “Our energy trilemma remains the same. We are committed to keeping the lights on, we are committed to decarbonisation at the lowest cost to consumers.”

    • ian wragg says:

      When we get the first blackouts this winter just watch the scramble for change. I would be surprised if any more coal fired stations were closed and I fully expect the ones capable of being re commissioned.
      We are in a parlous state with our (non) energy policy and something has to change.

  17. Roger Turner says:

    Glad to see Roger was linking up “the Young” problem with their EU sanitised education.
    i.e. they have been brainwashed for the best part of 40 years and now we have two generations of EU brainwashed youngsters.
    What are we going to do to make sure the EU is eradicated from School staff, pupils and their whole ethos for the start of the new school year in September???

  18. Ex-expat Colin says:

    BREAKING: Most EU member states rejected talks with Scotland at summit

  19. Anyoldiron says:

    It is indeed the whole United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland that is sadly in the present EU. Not quite the original Organisation we joined now though, is it? HMPH! I wonder if the day will come when there is no need of National Governments and Parliaments especially as whole Country’s have been divided up into EU REGIONS?

  20. Alan Wheatley says:

    One interviewee commenting on market volatility (can’t remember who and where – there are so many) put forward the view that fund managers had taken positions on the assumption that Remain would win. When they found themselves on the wrong side there inevitably had to be some adjustment to their portfolios. Sounds logical.

    One litmus test I hope we hear about in due course concerns George Soros. He was one of the “experts” advising Remain, so was he better or worse off after the vote was Leave?

  21. rtj1211 says:

    Mr Helmer

    The science of predicting solar activity is currently at the level that, 3 years after a new 11 year cycle has begun, scientists are pretty darn good at predicting its peak output and its timing.

    What they are not so good at is predicting 1, 2 or 3 cycles ahead.

    There are plenty of theories out there, but they haven’t been around long enough for anyone to have data to call them much stronger than ‘informed computer modelling’.

    Given the bad reputation climate science computer modellers have got, I would state that, in this case, the modelling is entirely appropriate since there is an extremely clear measurable to evaluate the veracity of the model in the years ahead.

    I doubt that we can predict Maunder-style minimums with accuracy 25 years ahead based on anything more than informed guesswork, enlightened hunches, call it what you will.

    I would say that there is a more than even money chance that the cooling will occur up to 2050, but I remain to be convinced that it will be a Maunder-style event, rather than one analogous to the Dalton Minimum in the early 19th century, whose effects were less severe.

    I would also wager that temperatures will rebound in the second half of the 21st century, again not due to carbon dioxide but due to long-term cyclical events associated with the solar system, the sun etc.

  22. catalanbrian says:

    Roger, Helmer. I asked you for brief details of the Brexiteer’s plan for the future of the UK, as it seems that currently there is not one. Could you please advise me on this very important matter?

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