Post Referendum Debrief July 4th

July 4th: Independence Day!

Today, July 4th, is Independence Day in the USA, and I send greetings to all our friends in America. Americans will be celebrating all around the world, and apparently Denmark also celebrates the US Independence Day, for reasons which remain obscure.  I trust that the Danes, and other Europeans, will also want to join us on June 23rd 2017 in celebrating our own British Independence Day.  And perhaps before too long they will have their own Independence Days to celebrate.  Let’s build a new, open, free, democratic Europe of nation states, bound together solely by free trade and voluntary intergovernmental co-operation.

Italians told by the EU to follow the rules

The full extent of the Brexit shock will depend less on what happens in this country than on its impact on the Eurozone, whose weakest link is the Italian banking system, writes Simon Nixon in The Wall Street Journal.

The paper says under new EU rules which came into force earlier this year, no public money can be used to support failed banks until private-sector creditors accounting for eight per cent of the bank’s liabilities have been bailed in.

Italy’s upcoming referendum will deal with major Senate reforms which, if approved, could improve the stability of Italy’s political machine and give Prime Minister Matteo Renzi some breathing room.

If the referendum fails, Renzi’s government will fall, and Italy will return to the sort of political anarchy that followed the ousting of former Prime Minister Silvio Berlusconi. Watch this space – the clamour to get out of the EU could soon intensify even further.

Angel Merkel to oust Juncker

Angela Merkel could move to oust EU chief Jean-Claude Juncker ‘within the next year’, a Germany government minister has said, in a sign of deepening European divisions over how to respond to Brexit.

The Daily  Telegraph reports Mr Juncker’s constant and unabashed calls for “more Europe”, has led to several of Europe other dissenting members – including Poland, Hungary and the Czech Republic – to lay some of the blame for Brexit at his door. Watch this space.

Call for Conservative leadership contest to be cut short

An interesting piece in The Indy  which claims the Conservative leadership contest should be cut short and one of the candidates given a coronation, a senior party figure has said.

Anna Soubury, the business minister, said a period of uncertainty would be bad for the party and country at a time of instability. The uncertainty isn’t great for our country she says. Certainly we need to move forward with Brexit!

Hammond backs May

Meanwhile, on the same topic foreign minister Philip Hammond has backed Teresa May’s leadership push.

Hammond, who campaigned to remain in the EU, said the next leader would have to make a trade-off between continued access to Europe’s single market  and limiting freedom of movement.

“Unfettered free movement of EU nationals, as it has worked hitherto, is no longer on the table,” Hammond said in a column for The Daily Telegraph newspaper.

This continues the narrative of ambiguity from ‘Remain’ voting Conservatives as to what is going to be the approach as we move forward – these mixed messages are not what the majority of people voted for during the referendum.

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18 Responses to Post Referendum Debrief July 4th

  1. Alan Wheatley says:

    Re Conservative leadership “coronation” call from Anna Soubury, my opinion of her has gone from low to lower.

  2. Alan Wheatley says:

    Re Hammond, the faster and sooner the positive case for leave is made the less his nonsense views will have any attention.

    By the way, how about for the new Foreign Minister being that well known Leave campaigner, internationalist and instantly recognisable figure throughout the World – I give you Boris!

  3. Ex-expat Colin says:

    I’m trying to work out here whether the people or parliament has supremacy in UK? Because this legal challenge from Zoopla et al to A50 and the muttering about parliament needing to vote on a separate Act to trigger A50 is a bit beyond a joke.

    Parliament and Article 50
    By JOHNREDWOOD | Published: JULY 4, 2016

    “Parliament effectively control the prerogative powers of government. The government can send a letter triggering Article 50 without asking Parliament. Like all such deeds Parliament can review or vote down any action of the government. If the government uses powers in ways Parliament does not like Parliament can pass a vote of no confidence. We do not need lawyers telling us how to legislate or control government”.

  4. Mr Helmer, the BBC is campaigning to reverse the referendum and the Conservatives are likely to elect a ‘free movement’ PM.

    I suspect we will end up with ‘associate membership’ with very little change.

    With the Conservatives and the Labour Party wilfully ignoring the wish of the majority we could see a free market political party sweep to power, despite the BBC.

    I do hope that Mr Farage starts a new political movement and would also hope that you would join him in this venture as this could be our only hope.

  5. foxbarn says:

    With Nigel stepping down, this is a bad time for Britain as the BBC/Guardian/establishment mount a spiteful counter attack on the British people. Anna Soubry is a vile woman.

  6. ian terry says:

    these mixed messages are not what the majority of people voted for during the referendum.

    Too true Roger and if all this naffing about carries on I can see the end of democracy and the parliament we have as we know it.

    Nigel has done more than his bit and it is time for a new leader who I think will be very busy in the forthcoming months holding this lot to account.

    We have to hope that Andrea gets the vote.

  7. Alan Piper says:

    Any thoughts about leading The Party?

  8. Shieldsman says:

    A Coronation, an anointment of Theresa May would be very foolish if it was obtainable. The Parliamentary Party (MP’s), like the Labour Party detached from their grassroots. May is backed by a coterie of Cameron’s Cabinet (Anna Soubury included by quota).
    Not to present two candidates for selection by the membership would be extremely foolhardy.

    The Parliamentary Party is split as William Hague keeps telling us. The Daily Telegraph, whether right or wrong had approx. 70% of the party in the Country voting for Leave.

    With Michael Gove out of the running this leaves Andrea Leadsom as the favourite for PM amongst many of the leave campaigners.
    Despite the Mail on Sunday and Andrew Marr doing their best to knock her on part of a speech made in 2013, she had a good answer. From the transcript:
    AM: Can I just read to you something that you said to the Hansard Society, not that long ago, 2013. You said: ‘I’m going to nail my colours to the mast here. I don’t think the UK should leave the EU. I think it would be a disaster for our economy and it would lead to a decade of economic and political uncertainty at a time when the tectonic plates of global success are moving.’ Why was that Andrea Leadsom so wrong?
    AL: Well, you know it has been a journey. Now when I came into parliament, like most people in the country I’d grown up as part of the EU and it’s absolutely part of our sort of our DNA and I came into parliament, set up something called the Fresh Start Project which took hundreds and hundreds of hours of evidence about how the EU impacts on the UK on everything from immigration to fisheries, to budgets and so on. And during that process I travelled all across Europe with lots of parliamentary colleagues – up to a hundred of Conservative colleagues supporting this work – to try and get a really decent fundamental reform of the EU. Now in that
    very same lecture which you’re obviously not quoting today –
    AM: We have listened to it all.
    AL: I was very clear that the UK’s current situation was totally untenable and that the only way we could remain a part of the EU was if we had fundamental reform. The status quo was not an
    option. And I made very clear in the rest of that speech that what the sort of reforms that we needed should be –
    AM: Absolutely you did.
    AL: And of course when the Prime Minister came back with his reform, with his renegotiation, with the certainty of a referendum behind it, sort of lent power to his elbow, it was very clear that the
    EU is just not reformable. So that speech was April 2013 and things have so moved on.
    AM; The reason that we have listened very carefully to the whole speech and we do understand all the reform side, is that nonetheless your fundamental point was – despite all of that stuff
    as it were – coming out of the EU would be such a big shock we shouldn’t do it. That has not changed has it?
    AL: Well no, I think it absolutely has. I think that the risk of remaining in the EU massively magnified since – around that time actually – as did the determination of the EU institutions to go
    further, faster. You know they have sacrificed a generation of southern European young people to up to 50% youth unemployment to poverty; you know Greece has lost 25% of her economy; we’ve got this massive migration crisis. So things fundamentally changed, but also, at the same time, the UK’s economy has been recovering. You know I think the Chancellor did a fantastic job –
    AM: So it has changed entirely?
    AL: Yes it has been, yes it has.
    AM: And you completely disagree with George Osborne who says we’re going to be a poorer country as a result, clearly?
    AL: Well I do, yes. I disagree, yes.

    Let us pass on. The BBC cannot resist having a go at UKIP and the Leave campaigners.
    AM: All right. Now you have had a huge amount of support for your campaign already piling in. My twitter feed is crammed with it. But they’re almost all UKIP people, Aaron Banks wants to fund
    your campaign. Are you content, are you satisfied to be as it were the candidate where the Conservative Party and UKIP touch fingers?
    AL: I mean I don’t recognise what you’re saying.
    AM: Well the support is come pouring in from UKIP people too.
    Pass on.
    AL: Okay. In answer to your friendly question then, Andrew, I’m delighted by the wide range of support and actually very particularly from young people who say it’s not true to say only older people wanted to leave, we want to leave, we see our future in the world.

    Besides her knowledge of the Fresh Start Project, Andrea has business acumen which not many in Parliament have.

    We still have the remainders talking about the big porkies being told. Cameron kicked off with the biggest one of them all – “I want to remain in this REFORMED European Union”.

  9. ian terry says:

    If Andrea gets in I do hope she makes one of her priorities her the scandal of constraint payments for wind turbines, This Easter according to the REF the value of the payments was £3.7m now someone somewhere could do a bit of good with that amount of money.

    As it was her old department she should have a good idea how it all works.

  10. Dung says:

    My reading of the rules relating to Article 50:

    Article 50 does NOT take us out of the EU, it simply starts a process that ‘could’ lead to us leaving so John Redwood is (as usual) correct.
    The claim by lawyers that we need an act of parliament to repeal the Communities Act before we can trigger Article 50 seems totally bizarre. If we were to repeal the Communities Act we woulkd be instantly out of the EU and there would be no need to worry about Article 50 (we would however be breaking many agreements and pledges if we arbitrarily did repeal that act ^.^)

    • Alan Wheatley says:

      I agree, Dung,

      My understanding is that Article 50 is a procedure for reaching an agreement between a country that wants to leave and the rump-EU. It allows for this to take up to two years, unless extended, and, as far as the EU is concerned, the leaving country leaves at the end of the two years under what ever terms have been agreed at that point. It does not have to take two years if agreement by both parties can be reached more quickly. The leaving country can not extend the process unless the EU agrees.

      From the UK’s perspective, the European Communities Act 1972 must be repealed. Presumably this should be coincident with the conclusion of the Article 50 procedure. I guess the Government could pass an act for the repeal of the 1972 Act with a clause determining the date in which it comes into force: e.g. two years after Article 50 initiated or at an earlier or later date as agreed by Parliament. I believe Bill Cash is already drafting such an act.

      I would have thought Bill Cash is the most authoritative Conservative voice on these procedural matters. But it seems the media is determined to talk to all and sundry who know little and speculate much rather than go to the obvious best source.

  11. Why no mention of your late Leader, Mr Helmer? Are you going to airbrush him from your UKIP ‘party’?

  12. Roger Turner says:

    This time in my opinion, Nigel has handled it brilliantly, he`s had his ups and downs, as haven`t we all, it`s been a bumpy ride, but in the end he has always come up trumps and led from the front, never afraid to stick his/our oar in , so eventually it is our word that has been heard, but whatever he has always spoken up for this Nation – I cannot remember his ever putting us down, as many so called “British politicians” have so unendingly done.
    So let`s wish him well, I won`t say in his retirement, because he has promised to watch this BRexit negotiation like a hawk.
    I am also sure he leaves a party to the new leader, which is far more united and genuine in purpose than any of the disastrous legacy parties.
    It`s up to us to keep it that way. There is a vacuum in the body politic – we can do great things together.

  13. Dung says:

    Nigel Farage was a man for his time in the same way that Churchill was, he was not and did not claim to be perfect but he was the only man who could have done the job. UKIP was indeed a one man party but only because he alone could see it through. I do not wish to watch those who will fight for the leadership because none of them can compare to Nigel and having to watch Carswell today with his inflated view of his own importance was truly hard to bear. Good luck Nigel and you deserve it.

    • catweazle666 says:

      “Nigel Farage was a man for his time in the same way that Churchill was”

      Indeed he was, and he succeeded brilliantly in his ambition, to force the government to give us a referendum and then play a major part in the battle to overcome Cameron and Osborne’s FUD campaign.

      However, it is possible that like Churchill he would not be in his element now the victory has been won, I think he was very wise to choose to take his leave at this point and pass the leadership to – shall we say – a ‘peacetime’ politician.

  14. DICK R says:

    The time has come to gloat mercilessly really rub their noses in it !

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