Post-Referendum Debrief July 6th

May tops the poll

Theresa May clearly won the first round of the Conservative Leadership contest yesterday, with 165 votes.  Sky News headlines “First blood to Theresa, but it’s far from over”.    Andrea Leadsom came second with 66, Gove third with 48.  Crabb got 34 and Fox 16. Fox is eliminated, and Crabb chose to withdraw, so the remaining contest is May, Leadsom and Gove.  The Times headlines “May storms into lead as rivals battle for No. 10”.

The second ballot, which will establish which two will be put to the party membership, will take place tomorrow.  I was sorry to see Liam Fox eliminated – he would have made an excellent PM.  But I was equally sorry that as a Brexiteer he proceeded to throw his support behind May.  This looks like a less-than-principled pitch for a job in May’s Cabinet.

‘Leadsom glossed her CV’

May may not yet be Prime Minister, but her campaign seems to have a dirty tricks department operational already.  Certainly that seems to be the Mail’s view.  It headlines. “Knives out for Leadsom: Tory grandees plot to stop her taking on Theresa”.

Leadsom had reportedly held senior jobs in the City, and managed large groups of people.  But reports in the Times and the Mail suggest that her career achievements and responsibilities were rather more modest.

There’s nothing new in job applicants seeking to portray their past responsibilities and achievements in a positive light.  Personally I am less concerned with what Andrea Leadsom did decades ago – and rather more concerned with what Theresa May signally failed to do much more recently: to deliver on the government’s manifesto pledge on immigration, or to take a credible rôle in the Referendum Campaign.

Angela Merkel plays Ringmaster

Over at the BBC, Katya Adler has written a thoughtful piece about Angela Merkel’s reaction to Brexit. While other EU leaders give vent to their emotional reactions, she seems to be appealing for calm – a period of reflection until September when a new British Prime Minister will be in place.

Meantime, she is moving the scenery in readiness. She already seems to have side-lined the Commission (indeed some reports suggests she is actively seeking the resignation of Juncker), and ensured that her nominee on behalf of the European Council – not the Commission – will handle the Brexit negotiations on behalf of the EU.  She is also (says Adler) worried about rising euroscepticism in Germany, with demands for the return of powers from Brussels.  Facing an election next year, she needs to placate a restless electorate if she is not to lose vote share to AfD.

Sometimes Brussels gets it right: With great reluctance, I have to admit that some of the continental response to the UK’s Brexit vote has been preferable to the dithering in Westminster.  Merkel has said that the decision of the British people cannot be reversed and must be respected. A number of EU Leaders have called for immediate action, now that the Referendum is over. The British government should invoke Article 50 immediately. The period of uncertainty must be minimised.

I fear the Remainers are seeking to set up a Catch 22: they demand a clear economic plan before Article 50 is invoked. But we cannot start to negotiate a new relationship with the EU until after Article 50 is invoked. EU leaders have made this clear, and their position is not unreasonable. Cameron promised to invoke Article 50 immediate after a Brexit vote, but failed to deliver, and resigned instead. Andrea Leadsom has promised to invoke Article 50 immediately if she becomes PM. I believe she would keep her word.

The Prime Minister can invoke Article 50: The Remainians had hoped to show that the invocation of Article 50 would require agreement of parliament, which could have mired the process in controversy for an indefinite period.  But now government lawyers have confirmed that the Prime Minister can act alone under the terms of the Royal Prerogative.  This solves the problem, barring a legal challenge from the formidable law firm Mishcon de Reya.

‘Brexit vote plagues LSE merger deal’

This is the main headline in City AM.  While we want to see the UK as an open economy which welcomes foreign investment, it is also possible to see the LSE/Deutsche Bourse merger (or take-over) as a move by Germany to control one of the “Crown Jewels” of the City of London.  If the deal goes sour, there will be many who will not weep for it.

Sterling falls to 31-year low

The Telegraph reports that Sterling has fallen to a 31-year low, though the FTSE 100 remains remarkably buoyant. This is not purely a UK phenomenon.  It seems that Asian markets are in turmoil as well. Mark Carney, Governor of the Bank of England, is responding in a responsible way, making support available to the banking sector and promising a further rate cut shortly.

The aggrieved Remainers will point to the value of Sterling as evidence that Project Fear was well-founded, that their dire predictions are coming true.  But we need to remember that Brexit is about the medium and long-term.

We on the Leave side warned of volatility around the Brexit vote, and we can rightly pin the blame on the self-fulfilling doomsday prophecies of the Remain side.  We should also recall that British exports and British agriculture stand to prosper from a lower pound.  We need to keep in mind the lessons of history.

When the pound fell out of the Exchange Rate Mechanism in 1992, the pundits saw it as the sudden death of the British economy.  In fact it ushered in a sustained period of economic growth and prosperity, and is now remembered not as Black Wednesday, but as Golden Wednesday.

Chilcot: ‘Blair braced for blistering attack’

Most papers preview the Chilcot report.  The Mirror has Blair braced for “a blistering attack”. The Iraq war is scarcely an EU issue.  But it may be worth recalling that Blair is the man who gave away a big chunk of Maggie’s EU rebate in exchange for vague promises on the CAP, which were never delivered.  He is also the man hinting that perhaps as a “statesman” he should have a role in the up-coming EU negotiations.  Some negotiator. Some statesman.

EU migrant numbers soar 60%

The EU’s migrant crisis has been less in the headlines recently, but today’s Express reports a 60% surge in migrants arriving by sea in the EU to 227,000 in the last six months. Let’s not forget that many of these migrants will receive EU citizenship in the next few years – and unless we complete the Brexit process, they will be free to come to Britain.

Merkel’s party calls for Schulz to step down

Angela Merkel’s CDU party has called on the (German) President of the European parliament to step down at the end of his current term (end 2016), and make way for a centre-right (EPP) president.  They argue that his passionate advocacy for more EU integration is feeding growing euroscepticism across the EU.  They could have a point – though I suspect that President Schulz was not a primary driver of the UK’s Brexit vote.  There have also been calls in German media for Jean Claude Juncker to stand down as Commission president.

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52 Responses to Post-Referendum Debrief July 6th

  1. ps3person says:

    I hope that awful little dictator, Merkel, isn’t calling for calm in the EU because she’s stitched up a backroom deal to water down Brexit with the Tory hierarchy…particularly in terms of ending political control and free movement of people (open borders). I hope time will show me I am wrong, and Article 50 in evoked.

  2. Penny Gallagher says:

    Dear Roger,

    I am so sorry to hear that you are stepping down as well. You have been the voice of calm and reason throughout the recent storm, pretty much the only one! You have certainly gained my respect and I hope you still have a part to play in UKIP, but can appreciate that you would like a rest, and I wish you all the best for the future,

    Penny Gallagher

    • Serena Lonton says:

      I think there is some misunderstanding about who is stepping down. As I see it, Steve Crowther is doing so, not Roger Helmer. All Roger has said is that he does not intend to stand as a candidate for the party leadership. Anyway, many thanks to both gentlemen for their sterling work during the referendum campaign, and best wishes for the future to Steve Crowther. Also, heartfelt thanks to Nigel Farage (who I was fortunate enough to meet once) for everything he has done for UKIP and our country – yes folks OUR country! Now we have to fight on to get what was voted for. As I said at a recent local UKIP branch meeting, we’ve won round 1, now there are another 14 to go, and we don’t want points, we want a full-on knockout!

      • There are many things that worry me if we do not invoke article 50. Will we be liable to take notice of the new laws coming from the EU, EU tax numbers, EU integrated armed forces and Naval forces, integrated Customs services, removal of our meat and market inspectors? NHS sell off to Monsanto and other chemical companies, Working persons directive which is causing chaos and confusion to our Lorry drivers and when will I get my British Passport back ? All this makes me extremely worried.

      • Janet Dashper says:

        I must say that I looked forward to reading Roger Helmer`s blog. It was good to read the story behind the headlines of the press which can often be totally misleading and misinformed. Roger, you have made politics for me that much more interesting. Thank you.

  3. Phil Westwood says:

    Nothing to add, just a thank you for maintaining your daily tonic, full of commonsense and optimism as always. Greatly appreciated.

  4. Jesse_Marcel says:

    Why is no-one talking about Article 50 being a Limited Time Offer – ie. after March 2017 it ceases to be a straightforward process as it slips into QMV status, making it effectively impossible to use.
    The Conservative party are busy choosing the next Prime Minister and taking their sweet time, apparently unaware of the real clock that is ticking…

    • Craig says:

      I believe that he Tories, and also the other political elements of our Government are very aware of the time scale regarding Article 50, and I suspect that they are probably going to attempt to use the limited time scale to prevent us leaving against the will of the people.
      Unfortunately I think that if they do attempt to do this, they will evoke so much dissent and anger from the electorate that they would make themselves a total and utter enemy of the British People, if they haven’t managed to do that already.
      If there were to be a reluctance to activate Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty by them or by any other duly elected party, and if this were to be the case, it would mean that true democracy as we understand it would have ended in our country, and this would inevitably lead to the formation of a British resistance group that would end up making the I.R.A look like the Beverly Sisters.

    • Graeme Chegwidden says:

      I imagine they are very much aware of it!

    • catweazle666 says:

      Should that occur, we will be left with no alternative other than to repeal the European Communities Act of 1972, will we?

      • Roger Turner says:

        I have just learned that UKIP Daily has re-appeared today and I would strongly advise readers here turn to it and read a very trenchant article by Robert Henderson on the perils of Clause 50.
        Vote LEAVE and the GO group must stay united and armed and ready to fight for TOTAL BRexit- for me immediately just abrogate the original treaty – enough has been said – we`ve all got the message, we`ll be doing them a favour by going quickly – stops the contamination.

  5. Jesse_Marcel says:

    Is anyone aware that we cannot use Article 50 after March 2017? I have seen no mention of this anywhere in national discussions and everyone seems to think we can take our sweet time choosing a Prime Minister and triggering Article 50 when we’re ready. By which time it may be too late.
    I’m assuming there are constitutional reasons why the politicians can’t (or won’t) just repeal EEC 1972, although I’ve heard otherwise.

  6. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Well, if you had watched the Lords debate on the Referendum last night (Parl Ch) you would be forgiven for applying for early euthanasia.

    Lord Flight belted out the financial stats and called for N. Farage to assist in negotiations. Others simply could not get over the result…and won’t! But its worth £300 a day to sit and grizzle.

    There were other good speeches the OUT way. However, the chair for the EU Civil Servants Pensions etc showed exactly what a tangle our involvement with the EU is. A veritable rats nest of little setups/offices etc that are going to leave an awful lot of people wanting…a job/ offs etc.

    Some of these peers are seriously angry at the fact a lot of us wanted to decouple…..its a sudden intrusion for them. Idiots never saw it coming and expected it to last for ever. No get out and run plan…nice and cosy for life.

    Another Lab female version reckons the E.Tunnel is screwed and OMG Air Traffic is under threat becuase the EU control would be very bad if they did!

    • Ex-expat Colin says:

      Actually I began to feel guilty that my vote had knocked the bread out of their hands….NOT

      • Graeme Chegwidden says:

        I also call for Nigel to be involved in negotiations!! Roger too!! What a first class idea!!

  7. Neville Gillon says:

    I don’t trust them as far as I can throw them. I believe that they are behind Teresa May being so strong in the campaign for PM. so that she can shoot us down on behalf of the EU. If this happens, we need to march on Parliament and demand our rights regarding free movement of people etc.

    • Roger Turner says:

      I agree with you, but I haven`t that much faith in the British people.
      “It`s not cricket” “My Dear – we just don`t do that sort of thing”

  8. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Who did this !!

    • Graeme Chegwidden says:

      Trust the BBC to take the establishment’s side against the teachers, just like they did against the firefighters, the doctors and nurses, the sick and the elderly, the unemployed. Who needs spin doctors when we have the beeb?

  9. Ex-expat Colin says:

    You don’t want Trump..well:

    Extremely careless,’ but FBI advises no charges for Clinton’s emails

    As he rightly says its all rigged. And as far as I’m concerned you play around with Top Secret stuff ….you goto prison!

  10. Ex-expat Colin says:

    The mental…Maidstone:
    “Man hit by car then performed sex act in middle of the road”

    Need me lopper!

  11. R.A. Ashby says:

    Keep an eye on what they are doing – they will crash it if they can. Why can’t the
    CURRENT prime minister invoke the Article and why does Theresa May want to wait till September? Is she hedging her bets – I don’t trust her – she was once a “stay” person. Watch her.

  12. Sue Stuckey says:

    Thank you very much, Roger, for all your hard work as Chairman these past 6 years. All the very best for your health, wealth and happiness in a future now rejuvenated by Brexit; we’ll miss you!

  13. Shieldsman says:

    I only hope Gove’s backers do the right thing tomorrow and fall in behind Andrea Leadsom. We shall then see if the Tory grassroots really want change and a swift exit from the EU which the majority voted for.
    We appear to have this conflict between the MP’s and the wishes of their electorate.

    Theresa May represents the ‘Old Guard’ and she is already under pressure from the big mouth remainders. Having caused the crash, they are all crying their eyes out – Branson and May Meet as Tycoon Demands New Poll
    The Virgin tycoon Sir Richard Branson has held secret talks with Theresa May in an effort to boost his plea for a second referendum on the UK’s membership of the European Union (EU).
    He also pointed to the slide in the share price of Virgin Money in the days following the Brexit vote.

    The old adage is engage brain before opening mouth, but then Geldorf and Branson are two of a kind – showmen.

    • mike5262015 says:

      I think you have hit the nail on the head Shieldsman, with the term – ” Old Guard ” in connection with May. As I see it, if May holds her vote, then with all the others voting for Leadsom, May will by one vote win ! I don’t trust the E.U., May or the Old Guard. in that order, and with all of them garnished by the mess of Branson/Geldof, I think we are all about to be badly let down. The first intimation of this will be the absence of any UKIP people for the negotiating, Messrs Farage, Helmer & Hannan, are so obvious to have on board, that their exclusion will result in The Commissioners kissing each other ! As I have said before, I think someone should sign Article 50 A.S.A.P.

  14. Josephine Hill says:

    The Establishment are still reeling from the shock of losing the referendum having utterly convinced the EU Parliament the U.K. would vote to remain. Mr. Cameron said he would remain as Prime Minister whatever the result and immediately resigned, basically walked away leaving the U.K. with no plan in place for an EU exit.
    The Establishment, that had decided the electorate were too stupid to make their own decisions, cannot be trusted to negotiate the best trade deals and are now trying to get one of their own, Theresa May, elected as leader of the Conservative Party despite the fact she voted to Remain in the EU and has been a total failure as Home Secretary. I believe she will try and negotiate a trade deal which will still include free movement of people allbeit with some minute clauses to restrict the numbers.
    Merkel cannot be trusted and despite calling for calm will be planning to take revenge against the U.K. for having the temerity to vote to leave.
    We should concentrate on re-instating our trade deals with our own Commonwealth and making trade deals with the rest of the World first. We should not be approaching the EU for any trade deal as they need the U.K. more than we need them and if they want to continued to sell their goods to the U.K. let them make the first approach. I am pretty sure that Mercedes, BMW, Volkswagen, Audi, Citroen and Renault would not want to lose the sales of their cars to the U.K. and will let their Governments know this in no uncertain terms.
    The U.K. is now free and independent once more and can now take our place as a major trading country once again.

    • lasancmt says:

      Just two questions: How is UK a major trading country? Only 33% of its economy is involved in trade an declining ( same figure for Netherlands is 85%)
      2) Why would Germany and France sell any less cars to UK? UK can’t raise tariffs under current WTO rules ( unless you kippers want to tear that agreement up as well of course😂)

  15. Dung says:

    I have been watching Newsnight recently because of interesting guests (normally of course I can not stomach Evan Davis for more that about 10 secs). Last night he had David Davis and the main backer of Andrea Leadsom (sorry I can not remember his name). Th Conservative plan is apparently that Theresa May should ‘donate’ some votes to Gove to keep Leadsom from getting through, the wheels would be oiled by giving positions in May’s government (like the one Fox is apparently getting). All that we have won in the referendum would be sold out by Hammond and May.
    Good innit?

  16. Bert Claxton , CASA Flores , ZARRA , 42261 Teresa , Valencia ,Spain says:

    Ask Branson to publish the details of the deal he had to pull out off ,after the Brexit vote , 3, thousand jobs were lost apparently , because of us silly old Brexiters voting out , how long shall we have to wait I wonder .

  17. Graeme Chegwidden says:

    Roger, I know you and Nigel have done incredible things towards getting the Brexit Vote, but I believe that the Tories are moving to scupper the result and are looking to “design” a new deal behind the scenes that EUgh Commission will “accept” with no triggering of Article 50. We will be kept in the EU whether we like it or not.

    From the moment Boris got involved my instant thought was “Trojan Horse”. The plan, I believe, was that he would steal the limelight from Nigel & Co, with tons of support from the media, both print and broadcast, and the spin team would manage a message that would lead to a narrow defeat. I believe the Electoral Commission was involved and designated Vote Leave specifically because it excluded Nigel and Co.

    If you look at the media overview across the period, when Leave were slightly ahead, the message was heavily more Remain. But when Remain were in front, the Leave camp were allowed a bit more coverage. In this way the public was “herded” towards the 50/50 mark. Polls carefully followed the activity to try and make sure the public opinion was on target.

    The anti-UKIP smears and vitriol continued, as usual almost entirely based on made up or distorted information, especially against Nigel to “prove” he is a nasty little England racist bigot. This was the only way to create huge anti-Nigel sentiment as he is actually a really likeable chap. Like with Enoch Powell and Tommy Robinson, the only reason people hate him is because they unquestioningly suck in the words of a totally anti democratic media message.

    So with Nigel (and thus UKIP) neatly reduced in stature, as was done in the general election and South Thanet, amongst others, and Boris built up artificially into some pro Brexit “beast”, Cameron bravely went ahead with his Referendum, confident he would win by a managed margin. Boris et al were not expected to win. It was not the plan!

    They did not factor in the incredible amount of work done by GO and UKIP across the country out of reach of the “normal” media. The internet, for one thing, was their enemy.

    The look on Boris’ and others’ faces when the result came through showed perfectly clearly that the unexpected had just happened. Cameron who, moments before, had been steadfastly telling us that he was going to reliably steer the ship whatever happened, walked the plank, leaving behind chaos. Similar destruction in the Labour party followed – do we think that if Remain had won that all those Labour shadows would have revolted against Corbyn? This was not just a failure of the Tories. It was a failure of the entire establishment that wanted us to be subsumed into the EU.

    But they are not done!

    Whereas Merkel and Schulz and Co are pretending to push for Article 50 to be triggered (only out of fear of repercussions across Europe, not because its really what they want), the Tories are looking to “unify” behind a Remainer, someone who totally failed to get any grip on immigration while it was her watch, nor improve the ability of the police to get sorted out. Simultaneously the “Toryites” in Labour are on a path to overthrow Corbyn and his friends who stand in the way of the core plan. Then watch Nick Clegg or someone similar re-emerge withing the LibDem ranks to rope in the suit wearing pseudo left wingers.

    The media are now trying to play down the polarisation of our society they caused during the campaign so that we will all now accept it as Theresa May, along with her Tory, Labour, LibDem and business co-conspirators, lead us into a variation of “In” that we will never be able to get out of. I believe that they have no intention of triggering Article 50.

    We, the Leavers, have scared the pants out of those who will feather their own nests deeply while creating a unified single tokenly democratic country called Europe, but our job is far from done.

    We need to get them out of government. Vote them out. As long as they have power they will not give up.

    It is my contention that the battle has really only just begun. UKIP is needed more than ever!

    Come back Nigel! And Roger!

    • Lucilla says:

      I totally agree with this. Our chaottic government is enough to give any sane person nightmares and it’s likely dirty tricks to prevent Article 50 from being invoked immediately.
      A hunge thank you to Nigel and Roger. UKIP is an amazing team. Politics is not my strong point, but I believe May would be too weak and easy to manipulate. We need Andrea Leadsom for PM. She is strong and sensible.

    • Dung says:

      Roger has no need to come back, he is still here ^.^

    • mike5262015 says:

      I consider that you have it all sorted Graeme, along with Shieldsman. We have all been considering the E.U. as anti-democratic, which they are, but have overlooked our own fifth column within the Commons. It looks like May for P.M. by a nose, and if we then re-check the vote figures of the last General Election, with the fiasco of such a minority vote for this Tory clear majority Government, we will see the utter contempt that our Tories hold Democracy in. It is much overdue, but we must get the basics corrected. Votes must be by P.R., and first past the post must be scrapped. I am very worried that the new P.M. will only see her personal wishes in this mess, and act upon it, rather than cut some time to correct it. Meanwhile the people can go hang !

  18. Graham poole says:

    Thank you Roger for all your hard work in acheiving a remarkable victory for our dear old country. I

  19. Thanks for all yours and Nigels hard work during what must have been a very tiring campaign,
    Well done to you both, enjoy your rest, but I have a feeling Nigel and UKIP MEPS are going
    To have to continue looking after our interest both here and Europe, as remainers think only
    Of themselves and the here and now and not of their future in a failing and undemocratic EU,

  20. Dung says:

    Hanging Hmmmm, there’s a thought ^.^

    • Graeme Chegwidden says:

      We Brexiters are so sorry that, in our attempts to get our fishing industry back up and running, to sort out the pressures on our NHS and schools, to get our farmers off the restrictive EU CAP regulations, to get ourselves free from the ever tightening grip of EU domination and to sort out the burgeoning threat of ever increasing population levels and collapsing standards of living (to name but a few), that you have lost 20% off the value of your property portfolio (which was a driving factor in the unaffordability of houses for our young people) or that the shares and international cash you have speculated on have taken a bit of a dive.

      We didn’t really set out to harm your investments, but we believe you are smart enough to recover from the dip that was bound to happen as everything readjusts. It all happened back then when countries lost their currencies too – when the Lire was abandoned, for example, prices in Italy essentially doubled with instant effect and the Italians’ standard of living has never really recovered. But the investors recovered and more so in short order. Believe us, we do feel for your losses, but we happen to think there are a lot more important things that your investment portfolio and your irresponsible profits.

      But then we doubt whether you give a toss about those who suffer because of it.

      So if you will have to get a Visa every time you want to go on holiday or a business trip abroad, or you will have to pay roaming charges on your top of the range mobile phone, or you have to pay a British au pair at least the minimum wage rather than underpay an Eastern European one, you will be able to comfort yourself with the idea that 17 Romanian DHL parcel scanners are no longer living in a single bedsit in Earl’s Court, that some poor geriatric does not have to wait for a year to get stents in his heart, that little Johnny isn’t in a class of 45 children only three of whom speak English and that the number of minicabs churning out noxious diesel fumes is beginning to reduce simply because their is no longer a tide of virtually unemployable people flowing into old Blighty replacing the educated, economically sound, previously integrated hordes who were emigrating to saner climes.

      Actually I doubt whether you give a damn about these things either.

      You might think that the globe rotates around investment. We think it revolves around people.

    • catweazle666 says:

      Oh look, yet another sore loser.

      Total bollocks from start to finish.

      • lasancmt says:

        The pain is in your foot mate but thanks for sharing your wonderful insights and intelligence. Have a nice life serf.

      • catweazle666 says:

        “Have a nice life serf.”

        Says the loser who wants nothing more than to be enslaved by an unelected kleptocracy based in Brussels but really run from Berlin, AKA the Fourth Reich.

        My family gave their lives to prevent this country from being enslaved by autocratic regimes based in Europe, I take serious exception to sad traitorous little cowards like you pissing on their memory.

        For the third time in a century, Great Britain has had the honour to save the states of Europe from being ruled by a Fascist kleptocracy based in Berlin, this time without a shot being fired or a drop of our blood being spilt. We have had the honour to show the way to many of the other states that have been duped into signing up to this vile scam and hopefully caused terminal damage to it, and for the opportunity to do a small part to enable that I am very grateful.

        So grow up, Quisilng boy and get a life.

      • lasancmt says:

        All the veterans I have heard interviewed were all dead against Brexit. All the deserters that gave up the Europe they fought to liberate do is piss on their graves.

  21. RODNEY OLLEY says:

    Forget Switzerland and forget Norway these only appeared as possibilities for us as part of the dirty tricks campaign of the remainers. If it is not betrayed the results of Brexit for us will uniquely be our own. What is more it will have a mandate from the people that the degree of our involvement in the EU has never had. It could be said that the referendum was the only truly democratic action that has taken place re Europe since 75. All the rest has been agreed to by politicians without our consent and often to promote a political cause not for the wellbeing of the British people in particular but to eventually compel us into a EU super state. All those manic directives were not as loony as they seemed. If you can tell people how to manufacture and use their tooth brushes you have gone a long way towards turning them in humanoids.

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