Post-referendum Debrief July 8th

Doom and gloom?

Brexit fallout – according to The Guardian , which, under the headline Brexit Fallout – what it means for you and your finances, claims the post-referendum fall in sterling is already affecting people’s finances, with computers getting dearer and the euro not stretching to as many cervezas.

But this is not the full picture. As I mentioned in yesterday’s debrief yesterday  Ambrose Evans Pritchard had an excellent comment column in which he points out that on a trade-weighted basis the Pound is just about where it was in March 2013 when, as he says, most people were not aware of the exchange rate.

Nato leaders look for reassurance after Brexit 

The Guardian again – this time reporting that Nato leaders will fly into Warsaw for a two-day summit with the hope of steadying nerves following the UK’s vote to leave the EU and restoring western cohesion in the face of the challenge from Russia and terrorism.

Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, and the Nato secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, insisted that Brexit would not affect the strength of the alliance.

“The EU and Nato are quite separate organisations,” Duda told journalists. “The UK is one of the strongest members of Nato, and I have no doubt that its participation and cooperation in the alliance will continue at least at the same level.”

Stepping out of the EU

An informative piece in today’s Daily Express which outlines what happens next on the Brexit road.

It sets out a timeline to step out of the EU with one of the most interesting points again being when to trigger Article 50. It says The next Prime Minister will set out their plans over when to invoke Article 50, which will start the timer on two years of exit talks.

Andrea Leadsom wants to trigger Article 50 as soon as possible, but the other candidates want to play for time and wait until 2017. We certainly shouldn’t wait too long! I refer you back to Nigel Farage’s speech to the European Parliament last week.

They would say that, wouldn’t they?

Another Guardian piece – a coalition of MPs and others have launched a campaign to hold pro-Brexit politicians to account for promises made during the referendum campaign.

Vote Leave Watch, an unofficial spin-off from the remain campaign, is being led by Labour’s Chuka Umunna, who said the aim was to highlight the actions of pro-leave politicians who might seek to “wriggle out of the promises that they made to the electorate”.

Norman Lamb, the Liberal Democrat MP, Richard Reed, a co-founder of Innocent Drinks, and the TV presenter June Sarpong, all of whom were involved in the Britain Stronger in Europe campaign, are supporting the movement. Well, they wouldn’t they?

Umunna said it was not just on behalf of the 48 per cent of people who voted to remain in the EU. “They [Brexiters] made very clear, often overblown claims to the electorate,” Umunna said. “In a democracy it’s very important that they’re held to account for that. I think that would be a big concern to the 52 per cent as well. They will want to know whether the things they were promised will be delivered.”

Talking of overblown claims – Project Fear anyone?

 

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38 Responses to Post-referendum Debrief July 8th

  1. catalanbrian says:

    It is quite right that pro-Brexit politicians should be held to account for the promises made during the referendum campaign for it was on the basis of these claims that the public voted very narrowly to leave the EU. You suggesting that this is wrong leaves me convinced that the Brexiteers, and UKIP in particular are all happy for UK politics to remain the poisonous swamp that it currently is. Your leader, the appalling Farage who told more lies than I thought possible has, like all cowards, resigned from his post, clearly in order to distance himself from the rest of you.

    • charles wardrop says:

      Referenda, like civil wars, do that, but democracy is served the better for constitutional matters to be decided by the people, especially after decades of its outrageous frustration.

      • Brin Jenkins says:

        Exactly, poor losers wanting another vote until they get what they want? Just flies in the face of democracy, fairness and common sense.

    • KennieD says:

      I think people (ex-Brits) living in Spain etc should moan so much. They long since deserted their homeland for what they thought would be an easier life in a cheaper (more backward?) country. They thought they were getting large drinks at low prices when in fact they were getting expensive ice making a tiny drink look big.
      These people don’t give a damn about their ‘home’ country or her people. They care only about their artificially high standard of living paid for by an over-value GBP giving them an unearned pension/pay rise.

      • RobtheFox says:

        While I cannot speak for the odd few retiirees in Spain the affect of the exchange rates is world wide. The reasons people emigrate are personal and varied, many to be with children and grandchildren in their twilight years, many worked overseas for UK companies, met and married and raised families abroad. Their State Pension is an earned entitlement based on the number of qualifyıng years accrued in payıng the NI contriıbutiıon during theır working lıves on the same term and conditions as everyone else. In addıtıon to havıng to cope wıth this Brexit exchange rate problem some 560,000 in places like Australia, Canada and South Africa suffer the discrimination of the frozen pension…no increases ever.
        If you think that it is large drinks on the beach then try Calgary in Canada in a temperature of minus 20 in December….and just remember that a large proportion of them fought in the War and subsequent battle theatres for the UK and have a greater respect for the UK than a large number the residents have.

      • Jane Davies says:

        KennieD…..what a load of coswallop. I’m not going to dignify your crass comment with any more attention.

      • lasancmt says:

        What an extraordinary short sighted view of ntra EU migration. In France rural villages have properties that have been vacant for years. Retiring Brits that haven’t saved up for a pension can cash in on their overvalued UK houses and buy something for a tenth of the price, buy an annuity with the remainder of their surplus. Meanwhile younger more economically active people can move into the UK houses vacated. Remember UK doesn’t build enough of them? This is how free movement of people benefits the economies of both countries. This same North South migration paterns is what makes the USA such a successfull economy, the no. 1 in the world. Kippers don’t see it that way because they are basically dumb and economically illiterate

      • Brin Jenkins says:

        Umm, not too sure on this because I’m currently on a prolonged stay in Sicily. I’ve been fighting since 1998 and have not given up, but at 80 decided a little more sunshine and better food might be a good idea.

    • Ex-expat Colin says:

      “It is quite right that pro-Brexit politicians should be held to account for the promises made during the referendum campaign for it was on the basis of these claims that the public voted very narrowly to leave the EU”.

      Usual Bollox from you!!

    • mike5262015 says:

      Dear Catalanbrian. I don’t jump to the defence of Nigel Farage, in all fact he would not want me to, as he is well able to defend himself, but we should look at facts rather than spin from Opposition Parties and their Media. The British were never given any voice on the E.U., and without UKIP and Farage, never would, and the loss of our own constitutions would have passed without comment. Cameron was spooked into a referendum due to votes being lost to UKIP, and the silly man lost the argument, in the main, due to his Project Fear. When the word LIE is thrown about, you would do well to consider Cameron and Osborne ! As for the ‘ Poisonous Swamp,’ of the Commons, they are all in a mess, finding themselves on the wrong side of the electorate. Only a General Election will defuse this when the two main Parties have got their Leaders ! It is interesting to note, how Farage and others, became MEPs with rather good pay, only to get Britain out, and probably to pull the whole E.U. down, and you call this guy appalling. Maybe your happy with lick-spittle career MPs, but I’m not.

      • RobtheFox says:

        Just a brief note – I am not going into the realms of the merits or otherwise of Farage. However, as regards a General Election under the Parliamentary Fixed Term Act of 2011 it will not be held until May 2020.
        Neither of the only two conditions for an earlier one are likely to be satisfied; it is not within the power of the government to call for a snap election anymore.

    • Graeme Chegwidden says:

      The Remainiacs must be breathing a sigh of relief they lost then! Imagine if they were being held to their claims!! But then try holding Cameron responsible for his promises leading up to the referendum…

      Regarding holding Nigel et al accountable for UKIP’s claims, perhaps if we had an election and voted him into power as prime minister he would be able to implement Article 50 now and a bunch of the other UKIP policies. Until that is allowed to happen, Umunna and his ridiculous friends should shut up.

      Only governments can be held accountable for their political promises.

      Meantime, Nigel is in Strasbourg campaigning and lobbying to make the Leave promises into reality. What about the rest of them? Still spreading lies?

      • RobtheFox says:

        As regards holding a general election under the Fixed Parliament Act 2011 this will not be until May 2020; there is no longer any provision for the government to call a snap election.
        There are a couple of clauses in the Act whereby
        1. a successful vote of no confidence that is not overturned within fourteen days by a further vote of confidence or
        2. an agreement by two thirds of the parlıamentary seats (currently 434) to call an election on a confidence issue.
        whıch can trigger an electıon but both scenarios unlikely given the overall majority held by the government.

    • Serena Lonton says:

      What a piece of rubbish! You would not know honesty if it came up and bit your rump.

    • Very low grade, bitter crap.

    • vera says:

      Referendum wouldn’t have happened at all without Farage. As he has spent more than 20 years fighting for us against huge odds he deserves to rest and enjoy himself now. It wasn’t Farage who told the most lies – hard to choose between Cameron and Osborne which is exactly why they lost. Suck it up.

  2. RobtheFox says:

    Ambrose Evans Pritchard probably didn’t bother talking to the UKcıtızens living, working overseas and paid in sterling or retıred on a UK pensıon or wıth their income eminating from the UK eıther before wrıtıng thıs piece or in 2013.
    For those retıred on the UK State Retırement Pensıon the loss ıs already over £14.00 per week for those on the full pensıon and of course disasterous for the 560,000 whose pension is frozen.

    • KennieD says:

      The pensioners could always go back to live in the UK where their pensions would still be exactly the same amount.

      • RobtheFox says:

        Oh yes the usual simple response of the ignorant. Read my other reply to you and then also bear in mind that the savings – yes savings – to the UK economy for each pensıoner that lıves abroad is £4,000 per annum per pensioner.

    • ian wragg says:

      So the whole of Britain should be quiet and stay in the corrupt, undemocratic, backward looking EU so retirees to the Med can enjoy life.
      The EU is imploding, Deutsch Bank is on life support, RWE power are about to declare bankruptcy and the Italian banks are bust. Not to mention Greece or the horrific youth unemployment in Spain.
      Very soon there will be chaos in Southern Europe irrespective of BREXIT so enjoy life whilst you can.
      ps we had property in Cyprus and sold up as they joined the EU. We could see it was going to go horribly wrong.
      Our house is back to what we sold it for in 2002.

      • Ex-expat Colin says:

        I attempted to go there twice Ian. 1974 in the RAF to commission a Flight Simulator (Phantom F4) but the Turks arrived so we didn’t do it. The second time in 1985 to live there….too many M. Eastern types hanging about for my liking. Glad that circumstances in one case stopped me and an eye on risks in the second case. Ultimately the EU comes along to screw it all up.

        Spain…handing out Spanish nationality to Gambians. It simply gets worse! Pity we didn’t finish Spain off fully the first time around.

      • RobtheFox says:

        No, read what I wrote and you will perhaps appreciate that I did not say that. In poınt of fact I made no comment at all about the rıghts and wrongs of the decısıon made on 23rd June. I poınted out to Roger the weakness in Ambrose Pritchard Evans statement.
        However, I think that with the FTSE 100 and 250 losing ground on Wednesday, the comments of people like Arthur Edwards, CE of ETX, Financial Investment companıes suspending activity, the suspension of property funds, major companies including supermarkets dropping in value by around 7% then perhaps the decisıon made on the 23rd needs more careful examinatıon than labelling an organısatıon as corrupt and undemocratıc – whıch ıt ıs not as we elect MEPs (for what the current lot are worth).
        My comment about the exchange rate on pensions was that it affected world wide not just the med. In fact less than 30% of Uk retırees live in EEA countrıes.

      • RobtheFox says:

        The comment below that of Ex-pat Colin is misplaced and should have appeared here.

  3. Shieldsman says:

    The scaremongers created what can only be described as self inflicted injury. The world economy and that of the EUROZONE is very unstable at the moment.
    If you want to blame anyone it should be George Osborne assisted by Obama, Christine Lagarde and Carney.

    To recap David Cameron, said the EU is not working, I will fix it and reduce immigration to the tens of thousands, then you can have a referendum and decide if you want to remain in the EU.
    He failed to reform the EU, called the referendum, then he and the Government threatened the Public with vote to leave and we will bust the economy and destroy your jobs.

    The failure of the EU to meet any of his demands, resulted in the Publics disenchantment with Parliament and a majority decision to cure the problem by leaving the EU.

    Expats living in Iberia and the eurozone should be more aware of the problems facing their adopted homeland. The European Commission on Thursday (7 July) officially declared Spain and Portugal in violation of the EU rules on government overspending, the first step towards unprecedented penalties against members of the 28-country bloc.
    “The Commission confirms that Spain and Portugal will not correct their excessive deficits by the recommended deadline,” the EU’s executive arm said in a statement.

    If endorsed by the EU’s finance ministers, the Commission is then legally obliged to propose fines against the two neighbouring countries, which were both hit hard by the financial crisis.
    “Lately, the two countries have veered off track in the correction of their excessive deficits and have not met their budgetary targets,” said Valdis Dombrovskis, the EU Commission’s vice-president in charge of the euro.

    “There is uncertainty creeping in light of the UK vote result,” an EU diplomat told AFP. France and Italy will be the most willing to delay the penalty process, fearing that their own years of EU rule breaking would put them next in line for a sanction by Brussels.

    In the EU we make the rules so that you can break them!!!

  4. Jane Davies says:

    “It’s only taken us a quarter of century to come around to the idea that the resident of Number 10 doesn’t need to be metrosexual, suffer from male-pattern baldness or have gone to Eton,” writes Claire Cohen about the two Prime Ministerial hopefuls, both of whom are in their 50s and were educated at state schools.”

    Maybe now with a woman in number 10 things will improve, but time will tell. I know one thing if they don’t there could be blood on the streets. People, the every day Joe variety, have had enough of being pooped on from a great height.

    • Graeme Chegwidden says:

      The idea that just because someone in power is a woman things will be run better is a stupid idea. A cursory search across the internet will reveal that many female premiers were dictators, or were corrupt and even imprisoned for various crimes. I doubt whether any statistical difference would be found to exist between the desirability of women or men as rulers.

      • Jane Davies says:

        As I said time will tell. I’m not under any illusion about one gender being better than the other. In politics gender is Asexual!

    • Ex-expat Colin says:

      He’s always on the pop Jane. And I think the language can be a bit awkward judging from commentators elsewhere. Planets… a la Frog?

      • Jane Davies says:

        Maybe something was lost in translation? I hope so or the little men in white coats need to called to come and collect him.

    • Ex-expat Colin says:

      What did p*ss me off yesterday was seeing him and Tusk with the lame duck US President in Warsaw. Just who the hell do they think they are? Surprised her supreme majesty Mogherini wasn’t hanging about as well?

      And we learn now from Fallon (MoD) that we are likely to start playing military games too close to the Russian border. Some 600 Brit soldiers hanging about? And stick a bunch of female soldiers in the front line…..mental problems building up here.

  5. RODNEY OLLEY says:

    We should keep in mind that the pound always takes a nosedive every time a Labour government is elected.

    • Ex-expat Colin says:

      Think thats just a tiny part of the damage Labour do…and it appears to get much worse each time!

  6. Richard111 says:

    When THAT woman gets into number 10 in September I expect lots of noise and house cleaning until March next year when it will be too late….

    • Nigel Greaves says:

      I’ve heard the March 2017 cut-off date for invoking A50 mentioned a couple of times, but is this correct?
      If so then it’s pretty obvious what’s going on with Theresa May. The first thing she mentioned after announcing her bid for the leadership was that she wouldn’t invoke A50 until the end of the year.

  7. lasancmt says:

    Let’s face it #brexit is a massive fuck-up instigated by economically illiterate UKIP buffons who have a cinderella view of the Uk’s plave in the economic world order

    https://identityspace.wordpress.com/2016/07/07/brexit-post-mortem/

    If you really want the truth about ukip’s brexit economics you should read lasancmt’s blog. Unlike kippers he tells the uncomfortable truth and does not engage in wishfull thinking dreaming of an Empire ong lost

    https://identityspace.wordpress.com/2015/01/24/ukip-economics-and-brexit/

  8. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Meanwhile on another planet/timeline:

    “Government REJECTS petition calling for second Brexit referendum signed by four million people.”

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3682084/Government-REJECTS-petition-calling-second-Brexit-referendum-signed-four-million-people.html#ixzz4Dui9V4Ny

  9. Rhys Jaggar says:

    I think if you actually looked at NATO in the same way as you looked at the EU, namely skeptically, without resort to believing propaganda, you’d have some very, very serious questions as to what it thinks it is doing and why.

    I’m every bit as much in favour of NATO undergoing root and branch reform as I am the EU doing likewise.

    AS it stands it is the military arm of US Foreign Policy imposed on everyone else. And being cynical, it wants to bring in nations next door to Russia to make it easier to say: ‘Russia is threatening one NATO nation, so all of NATO must come together to attack Russia’…..

    I don’t want to be part of an organisation which supports the current Ukrainian regime in any way whatever…….but the way things are going, being a member of NATO means that you have to……

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