Post-referendum Debrief July 12th

A day of MAYhem

Thus does the Metro greet the morning.  Just about all of the papers lead with the story.  The i: Mayday.  The Sun (on a positive note) “New PM can unite the Tories and deliver Brexit”: The Mail: “Coronation of Theresa”:  The Guardian “May takes fast track to Number Ten”.

The Mirror and the Times look forward.  The Mirror demands a General Election (surely the last thing Britain needs right now), while the Times starts to speculate about May’s first Cabinet. The Express “Make sure you get us out of the EU”  The Morning Star predictably strikes a contrarian note: “Mayday, Mayday”.

Andrea’s shock announcement: We woke up yesterday expecting two months of a bruising Tory leadership campaign. Today we wake up to see the removal vans at Number Ten, and Theresa May in place perhaps tomorrow.  So what motivated Andrea in this decision that so many Brexiteers will deeply regret?  Clearly she had been spooked by the Tory black ops and the vicious personal smears to which she had been (disgracefully) subjected.  But I think that two other factors weighed heavily with her.  First, she knows that the last thing the country needs now is two months of uncertainty and political in-fighting.  Secondly, she knows that even if she won the ballot of party members, she would have to face a hostile parliamentary party that strongly preferred Theresa May.

Andrea Leadsom has characteristically put the needs of the country ahead of her career ambitions, and deserves credit and respect for doing so.  But how is Theresa May going to unite a deeply divided party?  Clearly she must include committed Brexiteers to her cabinet, and especially in the task of delivering Brexit.  She reportedly has a poor relationship with Michael Gove.  Boris has gone uncharacteristically quiet since the referendum – perhaps sulking in his tent?  It seems to me that the wisest thing May could do would be to appoint Andrea Leadsom to the top post on the Brexit team (and Liam Fox for defence).

The Mail offers us its prognostications on May’s new Cabinet.

“Brexit means Brexit”.  It was encouraging to hear Theresa’s dictum that “Brexit means Brexit” – but it would have been even more encouraging had she added “not Norway-lite”.  I fear she is still mesmerised by the chimæra of the Single Market.  We need to exorcise that demon.  We want to be an independent nation with a free trade agreement – not a second-class EU associate member.  The Mail reports that Theresa is set to trigger Article 50 by the end of the year.  The end of the month would be preferable.  Certainly her friends are insisting she’s serious about Brexit.

The legacy of Project Fear

It is a pity that the media (and especially the BBC and the Guardian) still seem to be trawling for stories that vindicate Project Fear, while ignoring the good news.  Who would have thought that with all the volatility which we rightly expected around the referendum, the FTSE 100 would today be standing at 6682 – way ahead of the pre-referendum level?   The Pound is down – but it bounced back above the $1.30 level on the news of Andrea Leadsom’s withdrawal (I think that was a case of celebrating the removal of uncertainty, rather than the removal of Mrs. Leadsom).

Osborne’s world tour:  Good at least that George Osborne has begun “a world tour” to reassure investors that Britain is open for business.  But even then his comment implies a negative: “Britain has left the EU but it has not quit the world”.  Who thought it had?  We’re re-joining the world.  A newly liberated UK has shrugged off its “off-shore province” status, and is resuming its proper place as a great global trading nation.  This is not something to explain or to apologise for.  It’s something to celebrate.  At least we can applaud Osborne’s planned moves to make the UK even more attractive to inward investors.

Brexit boost for women drivers

One of the most egregious pieces of damaging EU regulation was Brussels’ doctrinaire insistence on outlawing “gender discrimination” in insurance – even when striking gender differences were absolutely clear from the data.  Previously, because women are safer drivers (admit it, chaps!) they got lower rates.  Under recent EU rules, insurers had to apply the same rate, so women were averaged up (and men averaged down, arguably increasing risk).  After Brexit we can set this right.

Not a big day for EU news

Exceptionally, the BBC web-site is just about as devoid of EU news as the Sun is currently devoid of sun-spots (possibly presaging cooler temperatures, but that’s another story).  So little real news indeed that “Cameron caught humming a tune” becomes a headline.

Tearing up their cards

Finally, it is reported extensively across social media sites that many Tories are tearing up their membership cards and coming over to join UKIP after Andrea Leadsom’s shock announcement yesterday.

 

 

 

 

 

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60 Responses to Post-referendum Debrief July 12th

  1. foxbarn says:

    Great summary Roger. Norman Tebbit in the DT says ‘Theresa May will be a recruiting sergeant for UKIP’. I’m not so sure. I rather thought that gutless old anti-EU Tories who stayed firmly in the Tory party were always the best recruiting sergeants for UKIP. To his ETERNAL shame, Tebbit never had the balls or principles to quit the Tory party, he could have made a massive difference.
    And Sterling is now 1.3129, just 5 cents off the February low, so where Mr Guardian/BBC is the ‘crisis’? As MoneyWeek said a week ago, ‘sterling is a screaming buy’.

    • RobtheFox says:

      I suggest the sterling crisis is exactly the same as where I explained it to you a few days ago, foxbarn.

      On 23rd June 2016 the following currencies were valued to the £ at:
      AUD – 1.96, TRl – 4.261, THB – 52.04 CAD – 1.89, USD – 1.48, EU – 1.30
      today the correspondıng values are
      AUD – 1.70 TRl – 3.73 THB – 45.34 CAD – 1.68 USD – 1.29 EU – 1.17

      These are the ones in which I have most interest and have done for over thirty years and this, foxbarn, is a sterling crisis especially for someone like a pensioner iıving abroad on a fixed income.

      • foxbarn says:

        Sterling crisis? Utter baloney. Sterling on the 23rd of June was as high as 1.4884 because forex traders got it massively wrong, the low for the day was 1.3228 but sterling has been falling for the last two years (pre-Brexit) by about 19% to the February low of 1.3836, right now Sterling is less than 6 cents off that low. SIX CENTS. That is not a ‘sterling crisis’, please stop regurgitating BBC/Guardian hype.

      • RobtheFox says:

        Not regurgitating anyone’s hype but using my own experiences. Clearly you are in no mood to take on board that there are other currencies apart from the USD.
        So, I left Thailand when the THB was 53.11 to the £ and arrived in Turkey on 23rd December 2013 when the TRi was 3.41 to the £. Both currrencies reflect a gradual increase in value against the £ in the intervening months until on 23 June they achieved the figures previously quoted. The position then subsequently crashed to the second set of figures which are today’s; there is not even a minimal upward trend.
        Now I do not know your definition of crisis but when a decision such as Brexit produces such a (continuing) loss then, as I said, to pensioners that is crisis
        How things were is not necessarıly a good yardstıck. To suggest that we are now only six cents off that figure constitutes success is hardly any justification

      • foxbarn says:

        Look at Sterling over the last ten years against all currencies, then come back to this blog and make some intelligent observations instead of cherry picking figures to suit your ‘Brexit crisis’ mentality. Sterling has risen 3.2% against the dollar today alone. I can’t be bothered to look at other currencies to prove or disprove your calamity mindset. There are far bigger things moving currencies but if you get any good at it, become a forex trader. I trade the FTSE and I’m happy to say it’s now 16.6% up from the depths of utter silliness on the 24th June – and every nitwit ‘expert’ from the IMF to Mark Carney was telling us that markets would collapse if we voted ‘Leave’. How comically wrong they were…no, not comically, CRIMINALLY wrong, they deliberately tried to deceive the public…and people like you believed it.

      • RobtheFox says:

        If you cannot be bothered to look at the figures I have provided but wish to blinker yourself to your “cherry picked” dollar then there is little point in furthering this thread.
        I am afraid that what was happenıng ten years ago is of no real relevance to the current state of play…far too much water under too many bridges.

      • foxbarn says:

        Of course 17.4 million people didn’t ‘vote leave’ because of what currencies or the stock market might or might not do. They voted leave because of what obviously will happen if out-of-control immigration carries on at present or higher levels, particularly in their communities, schools and hospitals. Where do you think we should build the cities necessary to house, feed, clothe and entertain 300,000 plus people a year, every year? And who will pay for it? Bear in mind we already have around 1.4 million unemployed of our own.

      • RobtheFox says:

        I never saıd that the stock market or exchange rates were the reasons – just the results of the decısıon.
        Over 16 million voted to Remain because they believed that those points you raise – I’ll not detail them, could be handled by the UK while still benefitting from EU membership.
        I see that the e-petıtıon calling for a second referendum and signed by over four millıin, the largest e-petition in history, is to be discussed by MPs, after all. It will not be seeking to overturn the Brexit vote but will give them the opportunity to them to express the feelings of their constituents. It will also, I believe, provide an opportunıty for the ground rules for any future referendum on membership to be laid down.

      • foxbarn says:

        4 million bad losers except it wasn’t 4 million as huge numbers were dodgy. ‘A petition isn’t the same as voting’ Paul Joseph Watson… https://youtu.be/Bn_6sU7O43w

      • RobtheFox says:

        The petition committee, having deducted some 70,000 signatures that could not be verified establıshed the figure of over four million. Some will be bad losers, that is inevitable but others will feel they have a genuine grievance; ıt is, therefore, good that MPs will have the chance to discuss the implications of such a massive protest although it is quite clear that as some aspects of the petition cannot be considered in retrospect the outcome will not change but that should not bar free and open discussion.
        Personally, I was disenfranchised by the local electoral authority through the failings of the postal balloting system for overseas voters – and, of course, others who have been overseas for fifteen years or more but are still UK citizens, assessable for UK tax and and meet their liability were also denied the right to have a voice in the future of their country.
        On an issue as important as this I believe that such exclusions were wrong and, to that extent, the ballot was flawed. The MPs will be considering possible changes in the laws in the event of second referendum in the future.

      • foxbarn says:

        You can whine about the result all you like but 1) we had the debate 2) we had the vote 3) you lost in spite of YEARS of EU lies at our expense. And a re-run for the bad losers wouldn’t make a bean of difference. It isn’t going to happen any more than a re-run of the last FA cup. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/11/how-many-leave-voters-would-vote-differently-today-and-why/

      • RobtheFox says:

        Can’t you get it into your head foxbarn I am not whinıng I am simply stating facts on how the result affected exchange rates.
        Yes, there was a debate, yes there was a vote and, yes, there was a result but that does not stop people try,ng to have a log,cal and reasoned discussion on the matter – just look at Roger’s brief today and tell me he iıs not offerıng the opportunıtıes for debate or possıbly even prematurely whınıng about the necessary exıt negotıatıons.

      • foxbarn says:

        and can you get it into your head Rob that wailing about a short term move in exchange rates and trying to claim it as evidence that 17.4 million people voted the wrong way is disingenuous nonsense, more suited to the pages of the Guardian, not on this blog where the audience isn’t stupid. How about this from your ‘team’ if you want some blatant lies: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-eu-referendum-36515680

      • RobtheFox says:

        Never suggested that 17.4 million got it wrong. I do not read the Guardian so insulting their readership is your perogative and I have no team – apart from my involvement in the frozen pension scandal and following the fortunes of my cricket club – and, as I have pointed out, all your indignation stemmed from my picking up on a naive comment made by Roger.
        Please stop tryıng to create trouble where none should exıst.

      • catweazle666 says:

        More self-pitying bollocks.

        Do you really believe you’re the only British ex-pat in the known Universe?

        I know several – one of them has this very day bought a property in France and welcomes Brexit – and you’re the only sore loser amongst them.

      • RobtheFox says:

        No I do not. There are over 1.2 million pensioners living abroad. Some 400,00 living in EEA countries, over 200,000 living in other countries who benefit from index linking and some 560,000 living in countries where index linking is denied. They are the frozen pensioners and I campaign for an end to the discrimination they endure.
        Thıs whole questıon of exchange rates arose when Roger rather suggested that it might put a few bob on petrol or the foreign holıday and I pointed out to him that the affect went somewhat deeper than that naive throw away.
        I am not a sore loser just someone who is dealing wıth facts.

      • foxbarn says:

        But you are a sore loser focused on one small aspect of the result, exchange rates, which fluctuate and the even bigger losers than you were the forex dealers who had massive bets on winning. Spare them a thought for their payments on their Porsches. Would you like a bet on Sterling? I’ll happily bet you it will be back above $1.40 with by the end of next month and I’ll also bet you that the Euro will be on it’s face in that time.

      • RobtheFox says:

        I am not a sore loser foxbarn it is just that you don’t seem able to grasp the fact that I was highlighting a specific but pertinent problem which Roger seemed to happily brush under the carpet with his few bob comment.
        Not goıng to weep tears over Porch cars….they can always return them….I can’t even afford a car.

      • foxbarn says:

        If you can’t afford a car, you really are one of life’s losers. You should spend less time trying to second guess foreign exchange machinations and get a job in a bar, that’s how my 18 year old paid for his car.

      • RobtheFox says:

        I prefer to spend my limited income on educating my son. My disabilities prevent working at my age but it is not really your place to comment on such matters.

  2. ian terry says:

    As regards our own future it is imperative that our elections for our leader are above reproach and banning Carswell and others is just spiteful and totally unecessary we should be above all that crap.

    If they are not allowed to throw their hat into the ring I for one will be throwing away my UKIP card

    • foxbarn says:

      We’re supposed to be the champions of democracy, bring it on.

    • KennieD says:

      I was unaware that Carswell and others were banned from standing for office. Please tell me/us from where you got that info.

      • RobtheFox says:

        If you Google “Election of New Ukip Leader” you will be able to choose from several items which cover this.
        It seems that the Executive Committee have decided to change the rules and unless one has been a member of the party for more than five years one will not be allowed to stand….Carswell, Reckless and Evans are among the senior key members who are being excluded under this ruling
        Seems the Labour Party are not the only ones wıth leadership problems..

      • RobtheFox is right. The qualifying criterion is having been a member for five years. That rules me out, by the way. I joined in March 2012. Not that I should have stood anyway.

    • barbara says:

      I will be doing just the opposite ! Having seen the gratuitous damage to UKIP that Mr. Carswell has done, even in the EU referendum campaign I do not trust him.

      • foxbarn says:

        That’s why Carswell and any other moaning minnies need a free vote, let’s test their popularity. In the same way, if moaning leavers want a second referendum, let’s have one and make it a 2 million majority!

    • barbara says:

      I feel just the opposite ! I shall end my membership. Mr. Carswell has been at odds with the party and even in the EU referendum campaign endeavoured to do UKIP damage.

    • barbara says:

      Well I feel just the opposite.. the reason is that Douglas Carswell seems to have done a lot of harm from his sidelines even during EU referendum campaign. Throwing dust in the air.. but not having solutions.. I would leave if he or Hamilton were to stand for leader.. and actually Suzanne Evans too. I have heard so many people saying the same..

    • KennieD says:

      Ian,
      you might well find that Carswell is already making soundings to return to the ‘Conservative’ party now that Cameron has gone.

  3. vera says:

    Is Cameron humming because he’s pleased they have their preferred choice for PM in place?
    Is Theresa a stitch up? I hope not but continue to be suspicious.

  4. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Breaking News: Farage wins £2.5k and has not collected. Muchos LOLZ. Biggin Hill flooded with beer shortly?
    http://order-order.com/2016/07/12/farage-hasnt-collected-winnings/

    Will be interesting to see what Mrs May does to that miserable cabinet…like trim it way down to start with. Eliminate claws and knives!

    Just to kick off ..there are immigrants here who shouldn’t be thanks to freaking Spain handing out Spanish nationality to anyone. Need to deal with that sharpish with a plan..OMG a Plan.

  5. Rhys Jaggar says:

    I think Mrs May has a very delicate balancing act in giving enough senior Cabinet positions to Brexiteers whilst acknowledging that the PCP has rather a lot of Remainers in it. That means that many of the bigger beasts were on the Remain side. How you balance that conundrum is tricky. Right now, it is looking like PM, Chancellor and possibly Foreign Secretary will all be Remainers, which seems deeply flawed to me. I guess it depends how powerful the new ‘Brexit Department’ will be since that will clearly be staffed by a Brexiteer and one has to assume that the Home Secretary will have to be a Brexiteer also (what with immigration being a Home Office competence).

    I personally would say that, as Mrs May is Remain, she has to have two of the three great Offices of State housed by Brexiteers. But that means ditching either Hammond or Osborne, which would certainly be a big call. I’d guess she’d ditch Osborne in that situation….but I might be wrong. There doesn’t seem an obvious way of softening the blow, unless JP Morgan are gagging for his services at £5m a year…..

    • mancunius says:

      Osborne is deeply unpopular in the PCP – that he is still there can only be down to the general wish to have some continuity somewhere in government, apart from all the Sir Humphreys.
      If May keeps him on, that is very bad news.

  6. Dung says:

    Rhys

    In the short term there are going to be four great offices of state because the job of negotiating our way out of the EU is crucial to our future, May has said that job will go to a brexiteer. May really should give two of the other posts to Brexiteers because of the referendum result but we must wait until she names her cabinet ^.^

    • RobtheFox says:

      Do remember that May will be appointed Prime Minister to lead a government and overseeıng the leavıng of the EU is but one of many elements ınvolved.
      Just because an individual may have favoured remaining in the EU does not mean that they are unable to give 100% commitment to the job of bringing that exit about. She requires to appoint the best person to do the job….sometimes poachers turned gamekeepers are not out of place!.

      • Dung says:

        Rob

        In principle I agree but at the same time can you really trust anyone who supported the ending of freedom and democracy in the UK to do his or her best for this country in ANY government role?

      • RobtheFox says:

        Yes, as much as anyone can trust any politician – including Farage, Johnson, Gove ….

  7. Jane Davies says:

    Angela Merkel has urged Britain to confirm the type of relationship it plans to have with the European Union following its exit and she pointed out that it would not be possible for Britain to have access to the EU’s single market while restricting immigration.
    I really hope that the new Prime Minister does the right thing here, after all it was one of the main points about leaving the EU, the people who voted to leave want to regain border control.
    I agree, now that Cameron has gone, a snap election is not a good idea, things need to settle down, but if Mrs May lets down the people on any aspect of withdrawal there will be mass protest, people have had enough of being dictated to.
    She is going to be closely watched by 17 million people.

    • RobtheFox says:

      A snap election is not on the cards because it is contrary to the rules set out in the Fixed Term Parliamentary Act 2011. The next election wıll be ın 2020 although there are two exceptions which revolve around a vote of no-confidence which could possibly trigger one sooner.

      • ian wragg says:

        It’s quite possible that when Liebor get a new leader and things settle down, they may go along in approving a snap general election to try and neutralise the referendum.
        Only problem is if there has been no movement towards the exit there could be a massive UKIP surge.
        I can see the majority of the 17 million backing UKIP if a stitch up is tried.
        We don’t like being pi..ed off.

    • KennieD says:

      Wrong, Frau Merkel. The whole world has access to the “Single Market” (Customs Union). The point is whether or not tariffs are applied.

  8. Dung says:

    RobtheFox

    If you would support MPs who have agreed to take freedom and democracy away from our country then you are a traitor.

    • RobtheFox says:

      How dare you accuse me of being a traitor……I wonder if what you have said constitutes libel.
      You make an assumption that wishing to remain in the EU is a denial of freedom and democracy; it is not and that is why we had a referendum. Now a decision has been made does not mean that opposıng viewpoints have to be supresssed but I respect the integrity of our elected representatives to govern the country befittingly..

      • catweazle666 says:

        “I wonder if what you have said constitutes libel.”

        How can it when it was preceded by “if” and followed by then?

        You’re losing it, Brexit has really got to you, I wonder why…

        (Oh, and don’t come the poverty-stricken ex-pat pensioner schtick either, I’m a pensioner too, I also have property in Europe where I spend progressively more of my time.)

      • RobtheFox says:

        In my wonderıng I posed a question. Thank you for giving me your expert interpretation of the laws of libel.
        Brexit has not got to me apart from the fact that it is costing me and all other pensioners living overseas through the severe drop in exchange rates. I doubt very much if Brexit will affect me personally otherwise anyway. I pray for my country though.
        And please don’t come that old schtick about being a pensioner, too, and having a property abroad, the “I’m alright Jack” attitude cuts no ice with me.

      • foxbarn says:

        Rob, every time you repeat the lie about ‘severe drop in exchange rate’ the pound goes up another notch. Find something else to complain about.

      • RobtheFox says:

        Sorry, foxbarn but to me a drop of 14% on my ıncome because of exchange rates ın under two weeks constitutes a severe drop. I suggest that for a vast number living overseas and especially pensioners on a fixed income would say the same.

      • foxbarn says:

        14%? You really are an idiot. Adios.

      • RobtheFox says:

        Sorry – that should read 11.5% (rounded)

        TRl on 23rd June = 4.261 to the £. TRl on 12th July = 3.73 to the £.

        3.37 divided by 4.261 = 88.5%

        I confused my TRL wıth THB

      • foxbarn says:

        But I assume you are using your chosen price on the 23rd, ie, the forex traders wrongly induced top, not the low of the day, so again, you’re trying to mislead people…or yourself.

      • RobtheFox says:

        No it is the average rate rate of exchange and which tends to be very much in line wıth the monies transferred to me over many years.

      • foxbarn says:

        This might cheer you up Rob, from Investors Chronicle forex traders blog this morning: BRITISH POUND/US DOLLAR

        So, Britain did not fall off the edge of Europe, it has a new government and the opposition is in disarray; other EU members are in far worse shape. Cable is no longer oversold, price action this week and last is a potential tweezers, and we have retraced 23.6 per cent of Brexit’s slump. A rally though 1.3500 will probably set off a serious round of short-covering.

        SHORT TERM TRADER: Square.

        POSITION TAKER: Looking to go long later this month on stronger basing evidence.

        SUPPORT RESISTANCE
        2135 2145
        2127 2150
        2120 2160
        2100 2175

        MORE FROM NICOLE ELLIOTT…
        Nicole Elliott is a long standing Member of the Society of Technical Analysts and has recently taken over the IC’s trading coverage. She is regularly interviewed and quoted by the financial media, is a conference speaker, and author of several books on charting.

  9. mike5262015 says:

    Dear Jane, Rob and Ian. Mrs. May has a lot to do now, with the biggest job being to change her mind on the E.U. Government Parties, over many years, have shown that the will of the minority is all too readily followed, and that is why a change to a PR system of voting must be in place before the next General Election. One big change has taken place with the referendum and that is the smaller tolerance towards our Representatives, who do not follow the will of the electorate, and Mrs. May won’t want to fall into the same ditch as Cameron, called UKIP ! Only one more point, will someone please sign Article 50 ? I don’t want this hanging around !

  10. Ex-expat Colin says:

    The main thing I like about this Brexit thing is that its hit each party and its VI friends hard. The totally unexpected has happened and their continuance plan has been substantially halted.The same old gang that we have suffered in Westminster are affronted big time.Their game(s) appears to be over and Brexit will be Brexit…ha, ha, ha, ha or roughly translated LOLZ

    We shall see!

  11. RODNEY OLLEY says:

    Woe is me that I disagree with my leader but I think an election now would just be a rerun of the referendum. We won against the odds and as the old saying goes, ‘don’t look a gift horse in the mouth’. We should keep in mind that the PM was a lukewarm remainer and may well be tempted to revert to her old position in an election if held before she has fully committed herself. The temporary financial turmoil following the referendum would be worsened by the uncertainties of an election and the remainers would be able to exploit this to their advantage. The possibility of reversion would mean that those in the EU who are already thinking of ways to accommodate us would hold back awaiting the outcome.

    • foxbarn says:

      That makes sense, the public have had enough of politics for a long time.

    • RobtheFox says:

      Under the terms of the Fixed Term Parliamentary Act 2011 there will not be a general election until May 2020; the Prime Minister does not have the power to call snap elections anytime any more. The only way an early election can be called is by a vote of no confidence in the government gaining a simple majority and not being overturned within fourteen days or an agreed motion being passed by two thirds of the HOC seats – 434/650.
      I doubt if either of the two major parties, given the current situation, will be that keen to force the issue, yetawhile.

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