Recession on the cards?
Well the BBC headlines the UK has a 50/50 chance of falling into recession within the next 18 months following Brexit vote.
The National Institute of Economic and Social Research (NIESR) says the country will go through a “marked economic slowdown” this year and next.
It says inflation will also pick up, rising to 3 per cent by the end of next year and overall the institute forecasts the UK economy will probably grow by 1.7 per cent this year but will expand by just 1 per cent in 2017.
This would see the UK avoid a technical recession, typically defined as two consecutive quarters of economic contraction.
So not a recession then?
Bitter battle over pension claims
An intriguing story in The Daily Express as news emerges Britain is facing a bittle battle with the EU over a £50b bill funding funding the pensions of thousands of Eurocrats.
The paper says Brussels officials have calculated the total will be required to cover the liability retirement incomes for the officials once the UK leaves the EU. And unions have suggested that the British Government should hand over a lump sum as part of a departure deal.
Anti-EU campaigners last night suggested that Brussels should remain responsible for the payments.
EU insiders are predicting funding for the pensions could prove to be among the most poisonous issues as the Government negotiates the country’s exit from the bloc.
Let me remind you of a couple of facts here – Lord Mandelson receives an annual EU pension worth £31,000 after his stint as trade commissioner and former Labour leader Lord Kinnock is entitled to more than £89,000 a year after serving two terms as a commissioner.
EU on the brink of collapse
The Daily Express also reports today that the EU is on the brink of collapse if its tarde deal with Canada hits the skids.
The paper says the EU’s director general for trade Jean-Luc Demarty said EU business and industry will be “close to death” if both parties cannot agree the deal. The EU is facing public opposition towards Brussels’ trading policy and in what’s described as a “devastating blow for Brussels”, it needs all of its 38 national and regional parliaments to agree the deal for it to be signed by Canada, which could result in delays and possible vetoes to the agreement.
And in a further blow Jamie Dimon, CEO of American banking behemoth JP Morgan Chase, is quoted in The Daily Express making the prediction the zone’s currency is facing crisis as amid signs of a major slowdown across the continent.
The top banker said a collapse of the Euro could happen as soon as 2021, saying: “It may take more than five years, but it may very well happen.”
No fudges – let’s get on with it
Interesting read in The Daily Express today from Lord Stevens – We have no right to ignore the will of the people. Well worth a read.