Post-Referendum Debrief August 10th

Positive Brexit news

Yesterday’s Telegraph Business News had a couple of Brexit stories:

British shoppers shrug off Brexit fears: Remainians predicted a sharp drop in retail sales and confidence following a Brexit vote. But in fact like-for-like retail sales in July were 1.1% up on July 2015.

Brexit boosts tourism: Flight bookings were up 4.3% at July 21st compared to the previous year, as tourists were attracted by a lower pound. . Of course a more competitive exchange rate will benefit not only tourism, but exporters generally, and even non-exporters (through import-substitution).

And a cash bonus?

The Express carries a provocative story saying that after Brexit Britain should demand money back for its share of EU assets (starting with the Commission’s Berlaymont Building in Brussels, valued at £294 million), which we have helped finance, but will no longer use. The total value of all assets would be around £4 billion, of which Britain might demand well over 10%. . I’m not sure that such a demand is practical politics — but it should be on the table to help counter (for example) EU suggestions that the UK should take responsibility for British Eurocrat pensions.

EU lists its “red lines”

The Express reports that Brussels is collating a list of demands from other member states ahead of Brexit negotiations. These would include free movement in exchange for Single Market access — and calls from Eastern European states that we continue to fund their Brussels hand-outs. When will they get it into their heads that after Brexit, we will be an independent country like other independent countries, and that there is no more reason why Britain should support EU structural fund payments than that Chile or Korea should?

OK. We can’t retain membership of the Single Market without accepting Free Movement. But we don’t want either. Other countries have free trade agreements with the EU that say nothing about free movement. So shall we.

And the IFS throws in a spoiler

Alarming headlines. The Mirror reports that Britain could lose two years of growth if we fail to stay in the much-vaunted EU Single Market. The BBC also carries the story.  This is based on a study by the highly-respected Institute for Fiscal Studies. But in this case, either they have failed to make themselves clear, or they have been mis-reported. They compared Single Market membership to trading under WTO rules — which we all know is the worst-case fall-back position. What they should compare is Single Market versus a free-trade deal (which is the most likely outcome).

Another point: I haven’t had an opportunity to study the IFS report in detail, but I bet they looked only at EU trade on either basis. Did they make estimates of the benefits from international trade on becoming an independent global trading nation, free of the EU’s protectionist External Customs Tariff, and able to make our own trade deals? I doubt it.

Guardian on immigration

The Guardian carries an extensive front-page report on conditions in Australia’s off-shore migrant holding centre in Nauru. The report is based on a trove of leaked documents, and contains very serious allegations of abuse of men, women and children. It makes depressing reading.

However it is difficult not to see the Guardian’s emphasis on the story as a deliberate if tangential attempt to discredit the Leave Campaign’s calls for “an Australian-style points-based system”. Our objective for Britain is to stop unqualified would-be immigrants from coming to the UK — not to incarcerate them. It’s fairly simple: if we make it much more difficult for would-be migrants to reach Britain (for example by turning them back in the Channel), fewer will try it.

“Another Calais in Italy”

The Telegraph reports on fears that “another Calais” has arrived in the Italian border town of Ventimiglia, just short of the French border, where the French are (reasonably, you might say) imposing tough controls on thousands of migrants who have reached Italy across the Med, but are now seeking to move north to Germany. Or Sweden. Or the UK.

Baltics block borders

In further evidence of the migrant catastrophe posing an existential threat to the EU, the Baltic states are closing their borders to migrants, despite continuing demands — pleas — from Brussels for member states to take migrant quotas.

Greece pleads for debt relief

Everyone (except the European Commission) understands that Greece is broke. It will never repay its debts, and further bail-out “loans” are effectively grants. In this context Greek Premier Alexis Tsipras is reminding Germany that its debts were cancelled after World War II, and demands that the complement now be returned for Greece. . It would be no more than a recognition of reality.

Brexit not a problem for Corbyn, but for the Europhile élite

A thoughtful opinion piece from Asa Bennett. Worth a read.

Indy on Brexit benefits

Yes — you read that right. I was astonished to find a relatively positive piece on Brexit, from Leave voter Sean O’Grady. O’Grady recognises that a lower Pound is good for the UK economy, and notes that threats of “sky-high mortgage rates after Brexit” have been shown up for the nonsense they were.

The Donald puts his foot in it — again

You have to feel sorry for Donald Trump (well you don’t have to, but maybe you will). He suggests that the US gun lobby should keep in mind the threat to gun rights from a Clinton Presidency when voting in November. This is immediately interpreted on social and main-stream media as a call to assassinate Hilary. Come on guys — give the man a break.

Personally I always rather liked the T-shirt slogan seen in the US — “The Second Amendment. America’s first Home Security Policy”.

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41 Responses to Post-Referendum Debrief August 10th

  1. foxbarn says:

    Another great post Mr Helmer! A top class news roundup except perhaps the Trump part, I think we should distance ourselves from American politics, it’s a can of worms.

  2. Ex-expat Colin says:

    John Redwood today:
    “The IFS are completely wrong about the EU”

    Say what they like about Trump (just keep to saying it though!). He needs to knock that terrible Clinton Foundation over. An establishment of liars.

    • catweazle666 says:

      Interesting to note that according to Assange DNC staffer Seth Rich, the individual believed to be responsible for leaking Billary’s emails to Wikileaks, has been murdered…

      Obviously a coincidence…

      • Jane Davies says:

        Haven’t there been two or three more coincidences?

      • catweazle666 says:

        Approaching half a dozen now I believe, Jane.

        My spies inform me that even Billary’s campaign team are starting to feel somewhat embarrassed.

        As a wise man once said, once is happenstance, twice is coincidence and three times is enemy action.

  3. Dung says:

    Roger’s debrief is better than my daily paper (DT) and I always find it uplifting as well as informative.
    Leadership of a political party is absolutely a ball and chain around the neck of any who seek it and it is no surprise to find that UKIP are struggling right now. It would not be possible for Evans to lead a political party, she does not have the mental strength to handle the job. After her recent ‘demotion’ she appeared on TV almost in tears because of the perceived slight, standing at the Despatch box would be beyond her.
    Roger Helmer has seen first hand what Nigel’s devotion has cost him in terms of family life and no doubt although he would (in my opinion) be a good leader, he is not willing to make the sacrifice.
    I am afraid that someone needs to take the part of Marcus Aurelius and say to our gladiator Maximus Farage, “That Maximus is why it must be you” after Nigel says he just wants to go home and not rule the party (and hopefully the nation one day).

    • Dung says:

      I do think that Roger would make a great Marcus Aurelius ^.^

    • foxbarn says:

      It is now becoming increasingly impossible for any political party to avoid the elephant in the room and so anyone contemplating British politics becomes a target and deserves 24 hour protection; why should only Tony Blair get protection? Has Nigel been threatened, I bet he has. Note the near silence on the case of the ‘moderate’ Muslim shopkeeper stabbed by a fanatic who travelled many miles to do his deed, now locked up but with a baying crowd of supporters at the court, calling for further vengeance on the murdered man’s family. They in turn plan to leave the country. This is Britain today. This should be headline news but no one wants to touch it and The Times won’t publish my comments online. We’re all intimidated by Islamic violence.

  4. David says:

    I wish you, Roger, were in our negotiating team.

  5. Alan Wheatley says:

    Re “And the IFS throws in a spoiler”

    During a full read of the IFS analysis I suggest look for these two items.

    (1) In the WTO rules scenario is account taken of the import tariffs the UK will impose on exports from the EU – matching their tariffs on UK imports? The UK will receive more in tariff revenue in proportion to the trade imbalance, so something to smile about.

    (2) What ever the UK/EU deal, imports to the UK from non-EU countries will be subject to the same tariffs as the EU currently imposes (assuming that, at least initially, the UK imposes the same tariffs as currently imposed as an EU Member). The big difference will be that the UK will receive ALL the tariff revenue rather than only a small part with the majority going to the EU (this is what I have read, but would welcome authoritative confirmation and the actual percentage the UK retains).

  6. Roger Turner says:

    As bidden by Roger, I read Asa Bennett`s piece, which as he said was thoughtful, he certainly drew attention to the Leave voters antipathy to the establishment and political class that had been growing for a number of years and speaking from experience on the streets, it was amazing the number of people who used the word “Trust” – at least the lack of it; particularly in anything Cameron and his whipping boy Osborne uttered in fact it was often accompanied by reference to “hole and keep digging” – as they did – they over egged the cake as well.
    But for me the real “Killer Blow” was the farce of Obama`s interference, not just his “back of the queue” remark, but his bare faced charade scripted along with Cameron where he plainly pursued US interests at their press conference and “instructed” us to get back in our box
    (in my words “The Care Home for Elderly Failing EU states”)
    Some of the street commentators expressed “FURY”
    I would also point out the supporting words of Michael Ancram (ex chairman and deputy leader of the Conservative party and ex shadow foreign secretary) in his article in the Daily Telegraph (26.4.16)
    Headed “After 40 years of EU lies, I`ve had enough”.
    He wrote
    “There is nothing dishonourable in pursuing one`s country`s interests.
    What was offensive and counterproductive was for Mr.Obama to present it as being out of concern for the interests of British people.
    It was not and is not.
    The President`s disingenuousness is only the latest in a string of mendacious tactics adopted by the Remain campaign as they have been overtaken by panic, their lies have flown thicker and thicker, but for 40 years now, we have been lied to about the EU and I`ve had enough.”
    He also wrote
    “I wasn`t surprised by Mr Obama`s strong opposition to the concept of BRexit. For all my political life it has been America`s wish to see the historic nations of Europe fade into a single European entity a single voice that could then more easily be persuaded to do its bidding”.

    I also didn`t see any acknowledgement of our drawing the attention of the public to the perils of staying in the EU, particularly the eventual introduction of the Continental system of ,Corpus Juris at the expense of the British system of law derived from Magna Carta and subsequent legal documents, the essence of which is that we are presumed innocent until proven Guilty, the Continental system offering the reverse. So Habeas Corpus will be preserved along with all our other “rights”, whereas in the EU victims will still languish in gaols prior to court appearance, perhaps for months (even years) without trial and limited means of proving their innocence.

    Mr.Borosso informed Cameron that the EU was an Empire – I call it the “Evil Empire”, what was handed out to Greece and Cyprus was more than evil and only TOTAL BRexit will free us from the position of being a supplicant member of this Empire i.e. not the Boss of it!
    I hope our candidates for leader are clear on what TOTAL BRexit means.

  7. lasancmt says:

    Roger keeps confusing closing down UK bargain basement sales success stories with Brexit success. Of Course when you have crashed your currency you will have tourists from strong currency zones flocking to book cheap shopping holidays. That is not a sustainable economy. That’s like saying the carcass of a cow picked clean by vultures was a popular cow.

    Finally Roger has given us a glimpse of what kind of trade agreement he’d be after if Brexit ever happens. Leave the single Market, sod the WTO fall back position, but use UK’s non-existing bargaining chips to strike a UK-EU bilateral trade deal that is even better than Norway’s.

    When you ask kippers which country in Europe has such a deal they come up with examples like ‘Canada’ and ‘Mexico’ because they are blind to the significance of the words ‘in Europe’ in the above sentence. They have it lodged in their mind that there’s the UK and there’s the rest of the EU countries. They’ll still sit at at all the high tables in the world but next to the EU as an equal.

    Well in your dreams maybe you will my kipper friends.

    Re tariffs, I’ll try one more time. UK will not be able to simply raise the same tariffs to match the common external EU tariff and pocket it. That’s because according to WTO rules the EU is a ‘Regional Trade Association’ and the UK is just a ‘country. So any post brexit tariff the UK would like to raise has to match it’s ‘most favourited nation’ tariff. So forget being able to strike ‘Free trade deals’ with China or Korea while leveraging 10% on say German Cars. Only RTAs can do these kind of deals, which is why most countries are flocking to join such Regional Trade Organisations in Asia and the Americas.

    Kippers read this twice before commenting and then ask someone like Dr. North first before spouting your ignorance on all things trade related on a public forum.

    • Ian Wragg says:

      As a sovereign nation we can impose reciprocal tariffs on any country.
      If the EU imposed 10% on UK cars we can impose similar tariffs. Given the trade imbalance the profit would offset EU tarrifs.

    • foxbarn says:

      If the perception of a slight betterment in your personal wealth is all that matters to you, then we’ll argue all day about what works and what doesn’t. Perhaps you need to spend some time amongst young people in Greece, Italy and Spain and ask them what they think of their prospects as the EU has most certainly crashed their economies. You talk of ‘crashed currency’ what utter UTTER nonsense. Sterling is slightly off its highs, now partly thanks to our Goldman Sachs bank governor who vindictively cut interest rates to ‘prove’ a point. Sterling hit a low of 1.2391 against the Euro on 6th April, long before the referendum and when ‘remain’ was considered a certainty. It is currently 1.1625, that’s a difference of 0.0766 – do you call that crashing the economy?

      But this is all irrelevant, the majority of people voted Brexit because they are tired of out-of-control immigration wrecking their and their kids jobs and wages prospects, they are tired of the EU making our laws and spending our money and they are tired of the EU dishing out passports to non-Europeans at the rate of 800,000 a year, to dump undesirable people into Western Europe.

      Obviously your little life is unaffected by the social consequences of EU membership and you’re just focused on the 0.0766 change in the currency, which is temporary.

      This might help you with the much, much bigger picture:

      • Roger Turner says:

        Thank you foxbarn for posting that little picture again, I had forgotten it, but it is a necessary reminder why we actually voted to leave.
        Now, does anybody need further evidence that I am correct in my earlier comment of describing the EU as “The EVIL EMPIRE”
        Please keep posting this everywhere at every opportunity.
        By the way who was /is the eloquent chap? I`d vote for him as our new leader!

    • catweazle666 says:

      Whine…witter…moan…moan…wah wah…wah…

      You really haven’t a clue, have you?

      So keep spouting your bitter, uninformed drivel, keep impotently waving your little arms and stamping your tiny feet, nobody’s interested in your insults and smears.

      You lot lost.

      Suck it up.

      Oh, and if you’re a German as I strongly suspect, you need to be sorting out the sh1t in your own back yard, not wittering about what we’re doing in ours.

  8. lasancmt says:

    Look mate, you may study esoteric currency swaps all you like. I’m referring to what UK visitors here in France tell me they get for their pound when they change it at our border. They get roughly a Euro for every pound. They used to get 1.40 euros. Dream on and hope you get a “happy ending”

  9. alexr64 says:

    @ Roger Turner asked…Paul Joseph Watson is a genius, his videos get huge viewing figures (way beyond anything UKIP achieve) he talks in a language that younger people understand and he doesn’t mince his words. Living proof you don’t need a complicated political party with candidates and councillors to broadcast to hundreds of thousands of people. How many UKIP MEPs have ever produced ANYTHING as clear and as persuasive? And they’re all on fat, tax-payer funded salaries, expenses etc etc etc now…only a few, such as Roger Helmer, have not been neutered and muzzled by Brussels.

  10. Frances Fox says:

    A great idea for Britain to have money paid back on EU assets especially as the British people have lost so much of their way of life such as Public Services. Roads and paths that have long been needed repair including pot holes yet we help pay for a marvelous Bridge for an EU Country.

    Frances Fox



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