Post-Referendum Debrief August 12th

It’s the Glorious Twelfth – but if you’re not out shooting, here are some thoughts on the Referendum aftermath.

CBI calls for focus on US trade relationship

The CBI confirms that the UK remains the largest foreign investor in the USA. $449 billion of UK investment supports a million jobs in the USA, a quarter of which are in manufacturing. However Carolyn Fairbairn, the CBI’s Director General,  points out the need for careful handling of the UK/US trade relationship. She gave a very up-beat analysis on the BBC Today programme this morning, but recognised that the Brexit vote had caused a degree of uncertainty.

A senior US trade lawyer on the same show said that there would be no immediate impact, but that future US investments in Europe might start to go to Paris, Frankfurt and Dublin – although this depended on the terms agreed for UK/EU trade. The issue of uncertainty is a real one – and another reason why Theresa May’s government should get on and invoke Article 50 as soon as possible.

The political mood in the USA is currently very negative on trade mega-deals, which means that prospects for TTIP (the proposed EU/US trade deal) are poor. Ironically it may be easier to do a more straightforward UK/US deal than an EU/US deal.

Insurers coping with Brexit

The FT reports that after initial Brexit worries, the insurance industry is “peeping out from behind the clouds”. More than that – share prices have recovered and the insurance index has moved back above its pre-crisis level. Yet another industry (a contributor to the Today business news this morning made the same point about the advertising industry) where an initial wobble was replaced by a realisation that the sky hasn’t fallen, and a resumption of business as usual. A reproach to the merchants of Project Fear.

Minister’s “secret meeting” with Tata

The Times reports that Business Secretary Greg Clark flew to India on Wednesday for a “secret” meeting (but now, apparently, not very secret) with Cyrus Mistry, head of Tata Steel, amid increasing concerns over Port Talbot. One has to wish him well. The continuing uncertainty over steel production is a huge burden for the Port Talbot workforce.

Germany moves to tighten security

The New York Times reports on German proposals to tighten security in the face of public anxiety over terrorist attacks. The measures on the whole seem reasonable but incremental. In particular I can find no confirmation of suggestions yesterday that Germany will “Ban the Burqa” (which some say would require a change to the freedom of religion rights in the German Constitution). Germany received over 1.1 million migrants last year, of whom 400,000+ have applied for asylum.

France: “Let refugees into your homes”

France is reportedly overwhelmed by immigrant numbers, with the 147 reception centres across France overflowing. So the government is appealing to citizens to take refugees into their homes. Good luck with that one, guys.

Young people fear unemployment, not Brexit

A survey by Politico’s of youth activists across Europe showed that over 80% were concerned about youth unemployment, while only 4% cited concerns over Brexit. . None saw Donald Trump as a threat, by the way.

Greek banks in panic mode

Greek banks have decided to offer greatly enhanced deposit rates in a desperate attempt to bring back funds that have been moved elsewhere. Mind you, “greatly enhanced” is relative. In this case, 1.3% for six months fixed, up from a previous 0.8%.

Voter fraud and political correctness

A new report from former Minister Eric Pickles, commissioned by the government, claims that widespread voter fraud in Muslim communities is allowed to flourish because political correctness deters any efforts to address the problem. . Few will be surprised at this news, but it is important for two reasons. First, it illustrates the way in which some immigrant communities bring with them practices and values which are at odds with the British way of life. And secondly, because it amounts to official recognition of the problem, which in turn should fully legitimise efforts to eradicate such practices. We have already seen in Rotherham and elsewhere the dire consequences of turning a blind eye to abuses within minority communities.

The Express reports that the police are “too scared” to stop vote-rigging in Muslim areas.

Of course this is not a Brexit issue – although it may be seen as a European issue, since similar problems are experienced across Europe. But it is very relevant to immigration, which of course is a key EU issue. Overwhelmingly British voters believe that the law is the law, and that it should be the same for all British citizens and indeed everyone in the country, citizen or not.

Forget QE – cut taxes instead

Fraser Nelson writes a cogent plea in the Telegraph saying that monetary policy has run its course, and we need fiscal initiatives to drive growth.

The fall of UKIP?

“The New European” (no, I hadn’t heard of it either) carries a story entitled “The Fall of UKIP”, by Professor Matthew Goodwin. OK, so we’re having a leadership election – on a rather more measured basis than the Labour Party can manage. But I think we can say with Mark Twain that “reports of our death have been greatly exaggerated”.

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53 Responses to Post-Referendum Debrief August 12th

  1. terry sullivan says:

    looking at the contributors to the new european tells you all you need to know–what a shower!!

  2. Maureen Gannon says:

    However people on the lower level to the heirarchy are having doubts, I hear it in conversations at clubs etc,

  3. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Good. You left them a £1T debt the last time you were “in office” !!

    Labour message:

    • Dung says:

      Labour have not learned a thing; Jones’ policy if leader is to spend an extra £200billion on infrastructure and Corbyn proposes to spend (I think) £600billion, neither of them explains where this comes from.

  4. Oliver K. Manuel says:

    If Trump replaces Obama, the international scene will change abruptly.

    • KennieD says:

      Or,
      nothing much will change. Corporate money will still run most aspects of life. And USA will still try to s*1t on the rest of us.

  5. KennieD says:

    Isabel Hardman yesterday ran an article in the Spectator, titled “Why does nobody think of the Lib Dems?”
    The answer can be found in the first “article” in this ‘New European’ thing; there is a picture of Nick Clegg, the man who helped most to make UKIP the winners of the EU parliamentary elections.

  6. Shieldsman says:

    The New European is a pop-up newspaper for a Zeitgeist moment in British political and social history. The New European is not aligned with old political divisions but with an enthusiasm and love for Europe; a new quality paper that gives voice to the values of the 48%.
    The Zeitgeist moment, that says it all, are these the people who believe they should rule the World?

    The newspaper that gives a voice to the 48%, featuring in-depth analysis of the Brexit process and celebrating European culture and values – positively European. With articles by Nick Clegg and AC Grayling, the UK’s leading philosopher ???, on why a two-thirds referendum majority should be mandatory for constitutional change, they do not think a majority vote should prevail.

    What superior knowledge does Matthew Goodwin, professor of politics at the University of Kent have to set himself up and pontificate on the membership of UKIP. As a political scientist by training (a strange label), is he really qualified to pronounce his opinions on UKIP, or has he just opted to take on the role. I have never believed he knows why people and mainly men join UKIP rather than the Labour or Conservative Parties.

    I believe we will democratically elect a new leader and will be challenging the other parties in 2020 (possibly under another name).

  7. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Prepare for LoLz..big, big revelation to hit us here:

    “Paddy Ashdown: Too many MPs know nothing about life in real world”

    http://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics/paddy-ashdown-too-many-mps-know-nothing-about-life-in-real-world-a3318241.html

    Aye, Aye Cap’n

  8. I am waiting for UKIP leadership to be solved and for the party to rise to enormous heights in the Autumn. Labour’s at war with itself and Liberals…who are they? I shall always support UKIP
    till I die! The best think to emerge from politics since 2nd world war.

  9. Frank says:

    Just wish they had let S.Evans run. She is well regarded on doorstep

  10. Auralay says:

    “…a two-thirds referendum majority should be mandatory for constitutional change, they do not think a majority vote should prevail.”

    What an excellent idea! Lets apply it retrospectively to the decision to join the EU, and to all changes up to accepting the Lisbon Constitution/Treaty.

    If they had had a referendum with that requirement we would never had got into this mess in the first place.

  11. mike5262015 says:

    I would like to Thank you Roger for your briefings, and to ask if you can use your wise head for the benefit of UKIP who seem to be in something of a mess. I have wanted a Party to believe in all my life, and now that we seem to have one, it seems to have hit the skids ! ? !

    I have just been made aware that the Lib/Dems want to represent the 48% E.U. remain voters ! I find this incredible, that they want to lead the losers. They have much to learn about Party politics. Way back I voted Liberal when Jo Grimond was in charge. I have never voted for the Lib/Dems and never will; they are a rag-tag outfit with nothing going for them !

    With what is happening in Germany, France and Greece, I think GB/UK has moved out of the E.U. just in time. Can you imagine what our Armed Forces would be required to do when this gets to be a physical break down of law and order in many states of Europe. Maggie May should give thought to old Treaties that link us to some Nations of the E.U. and cancel them A.S.A.P.

    Still no move on Article 50 ! – Why ? Maggie May won’t make use of Farage & Co. as it would be too sensible, and Party politics get in the way. So she seems to opt for doing nothing, which is not a safe option at all. We have agreement on this with the E.U. – JUST GET ON WITH IT !

    • rfhmep says:

      I wouldn’t agonise over the UKIP leadership election. Leadership elections tend to bring out the worst in parties (see Labour today for a good example). I fear I shall find it difficult to believe that anyone other than Nigel is the leader of UKIP.

      • John Burnett says:

        Roger I also thank you for your briefings particularly as a sensible voice in the crap storm of the pre-referendum media output. Like you I cannot think of Ukip without Nigel as its leader. Leadership is a peculiar ability that one does not come across many times in a lifetime. It’s an outstanding form of courage that is noticeably missing in politics today.

      • mike5262015 says:

        ROGER; Is there any substance to the whisper going around, that Nigel, with his new tash, might consider a return ?

  12. catweazle666 says:

    With regard to US business being cautious about investing in the UK, perhaps this may be indicative:

    Boeing’s Brexit boost: World’s largest aircraft maker picks Britain as home for its new European headquarters

    Boeing has chosen Britain as home for its new European headquarters in a major boost to campaigners in favour of the UK leaving the EU.

    The world’s largest aircraft maker shrugged off Brexit concerns to select London as the base for its entire European operation.
    The Britain Stronger In Europe campaign has claimed that a vote to leave the EU would spark an exodus of firms. But Boeing said its new European hub would remain regardless of how the public vote in June.

    http://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-3497621/Boeing-s-Brexit-boost-World-s-largest-aircraft-maker-picks-Britain-home-new-European-headquarters.html

  13. lasancmt says:

    THE BREXIT HANGOVER JUST GOT WORSE
    “The government minister in charge of Brexit David Davis, only realized in the last few months that it would not be possible for the U.K. to forge individual trade deals with different E.U. member states.”

    Roger Helmer and his merry band of ukip followers still haven’t figured this simple fact of life out……
    http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/08/the-brexit-hangover-just-got-worse

    • Nigel says:

      Project fear continues ad nauseam it seems

    • GBwarrior says:

      I like the Singapore model of a tariff and duty free country. Of course this might be anathema to our bureaucrats.

    • Martin Reed says:

      How many times is it necessary to point out it’s the EU members that need the special deals, not the UK. Trade with the EU has been hugely one sided up to now. If they want to continue along those lines they need to beg us for access to UK markets on better terms than the WTO ones, which would otherwise apply. It’s no bid deal any way for most products because WTO tariffs are very low. However they are 10% on cars which would hit Germany and France hard.

      • lasancmt says:

        I know it seems counter intuitive Martin but believe you me: On WTO terms UK Nissans would attract 10% tariff when exported to EU countries while French and German cars would continue to flow into UK tax free. Why would any EU country ‘beg’? Just Google “WTO Most Favourited Nation’ and maybe it will dawn on you I am right and you are deluded. (Unless of course you’re telling me UK will leave WTO as well as brexit, than all bets are off)

    • terry sullivan says:

      YAWN

  14. Anyoldiron says:

    If the UK Government cannot “speak” for itself on matters of trade to the US of A (TTIP) there is no point in having anyone in those two Houses of Parliament. My Generation went through a terrible WAR-and bombed out- so that our own MP’s could speak for all in the United Kingdom of GREAT BRITAIN AND NORTHERN IRELAND. If none can “speak” for us-then empty completely both Houses of Parliament especially when we are aware that our very own Longstanding Constitution FORBIDS us obeying foreigners-that was why we went to WAR. The Act of Supremacy 1559 went even further. It included the words: “…all usurped and foreign power and authority…may forever be clearly extinguished, and never used or obeyed in this realm. …no foreign prince, person, prelate, state, or potentate…shall at any time after the last day of this session of Parliament, use, enjoy or exercise any manner of power, jurisdiction, superiority, authority, preeminence or privilege…within this realm, but that henceforth the same shall be clearly abolished out of this realm, for ever.”

  15. Maureen Gannon says:

    Anyoldiron those of us who lived through that war had backbones of iron you had to have and nerves of steel,and that was just the children [I was one} could not agree with you more about the yellow livered clowns that rule us, and before I am accused of being a xenophobe have very good friends in Germany indeed they want the EU to break up , as they fear Germany is/has become too powerful , and in a conversation they told me 3 east european countries are talking to Russia about them being anti free movement and Merkal has decreed that they will get no more funding, if this is so then how is it she makes decision like that.
    back to the Act of supremacy I would check that out I believe Lisbon may have altered that indeed did not Bill Cash try to establish supremacy cannot remember if he won.

    • Oliver K. Manuel says:

      Your analysis is correct, as will become apparent when a ninety-two year (1922-2016) SECRET is exposed to the public at the London GeoEthics Conference on Climate Change, 8-9 SEPT 2016.

      To prepare for that, please read the last paragraph of Aston’s 1922 Nobel Lecture (12 DEC 1922) and page 7 of Kuroda’s autobiography describing the inability of a ~30-year old physicist to understand Aston’s lecture on nuclear “packing fraction at the Imperial University of Tokyo (13 JUNE 1936).

    • Anyoldiron says:

      Many people rejoiced when the Berlin Wall came down. I did not because I knew what would happen. I thought that while Berlin was divided, Germany could never rise again. However, before “The WALL” came down, we found ourselves in Berlin and indeed visited both East and West Berlin. We went to the Blue Church, which, as we sat there, gave out such a feeling of peace and tranquillity, This Church is built right next to what is left of the old Church which had been all but destroyed in the bombing. It reminded me of the destruction of Coventry Cathedral and the new Cathedral, which had been built by its side. We went through Checkpoint Charlie with grim faced soldiers (theirs, not ours-although we were told not to smile!) looking sternly at us as we went past after showing our documentation. It was an eerie adventure first taking us through streets and squares, lit only by old fashioned lamps every now and then, quite dim compared to West Berlin where the lighting was quite bright by comparison. Nothing seemed to be moving. A most interesting of visits and one I was so glad I had not missed.

  16. gerv says:

    Roger, I enjoy your briefings, but the cynicism about people taking refugees into their homes is unworthy of you. By far the best way of resettling a reasonable number of refugees in a country is not to tax the populace to pay for big centres in a small number of places, or to put them on overcrowded housing waiting lists, or for taxpayers to pay for expensive private rented accommodation, but to ask people to be generous and open their homes to those who are in dire need. If we had such a scheme in this country, we would certainly consider signing up.

    • Ex-expat Colin says:

      Who are “we”? Sign up? Put your address out there and invite them in….no need to sign up – FFS. oh..tell your neighbours and the council first.

      • Jane Davies says:

        Yep….just do it, it’s a free country and you can have whoever you choose to share your home. Please do tell us how it all pans out!

    • terry sullivan says:

      very few are refugees–most are illegal aliens and should be returned to home country. no refugee should get permnent leave to remain–they should be returned home when war etc resolved–think of the number of sri lankans now living in london–very few should still be here

      regards

  17. Are you one of the generous ones to open your home to refugees?

  18. Frances Fox says:

    Roger, must admit as days go by Brexit has still not happened which is of great concern to me. As for UKIP being reported as dead is wishful thinking.

    Regards.

    Frances Fox.

    ________________________________

    • Maureen Gannon says:

      I challenged my MPs PA as to whether they would honour Brexit as surely if it went to parliament to voted on the negotiated deal the would vote against and we would not have to leave under parliamentary procedure , he admitted the procedure would be followed ,maybe Roger can confirm this is what will happen.

      • Nigel Greaves says:

        The 2015 Conservative manifesto states that the people will decide, and the £9m worth of leaflets they sent out stated that the people’s decision would be implemented.
        The big con now is in how it is done.
        Brexit may mean a watered down version to appease the masses as far as the pm is concerned, but Farage will see it differently…rumour has it he’s already considering a comeback.

  19. Maureen Gannon says:

    From your mouth to god’s ears ,that he does another comeback and we have some stability he was on the radio this morning but no mention that he could return, more about his tash .

  20. come back Nigel we need you

  21. Oliver K. Manuel says:

    The unvarnished history of science:

    1905 – Einstein reported mass is energy
    1922 – Aston reported “powers beyond the dreams of scientific fiction” in atoms
    1932 – Chadwick discovered the source, the neutron
    1935 – Weizsacker used an empirical formula to estimate nuclear mass
    1936 – Bethe joined Weizsacker in formulating the Bethe-Weizsacker nuclear binding energy equation that has keep humanity in ignorance of the source of energy that powers the Sun and the expanding Universe

    • Oliver K. Manuel says:

      The elite globalists will not let go of power until the source of energy that offers humanity powers beyond the dreams of scientific fiction [See last paragraph of Aston’s 1922 Nobel Lecture and Chadwick’s 1932 paper on the existence of the neutron] are publicly admitted as NEUTRON REPULSION, the source of energy in the Sun’s pulsar core that controls Earth’s climate and human destiny.

      I am pleased to report a new paper on NEUTRON REPULSION has passed peer-review and may available to the public before the LONDON GEOETHICS CONFERENCE convenes on 8 Sept 2016.

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