Post-referendum Debrief August 18th

Positive post-Brexit jobs news

City AM sums it up “Jobs miracle defies Brexit doomsayers”.   The FT, a little more measured, has “Fall in jobless claims confounds forecast of culls after Brexit vote”, adding “The labour report was much stronger than we expected, and surprisingly robust”.  Another Project Fear prognostication bites the dust.  I have previously reported on a series on industries who have (rather surprised and even shame-faced) admitted that the anticipated Brexit slow-down has failed to materialise, so it was encouraging to read in yesterday’s Telegraph “Car sales showed no signs of slowing down in the first half of the year, and dealers are confident of further growth despite the EU referendum.”   But with the lower pound, we may anticipate an advantage for UK manufacturers.

No post-Brexit recession

A key plank of Project Fear was the forecast that Britain could face a post-Brexit recession – a point repeated endlessly by George Osborne & Mark Carney, amongst others.  But now ratings Agency Moody’s (which stripped the UK of its Triple-A credit rating after the EU vote) has said that it no longer foresees a post-Brexit recession.   And the stock market is in positive territory – now higher than before the EU vote.

“London dines out on Brexit Bonanza”

In a heartening headline, the London Evening Standard leads with “London dines out on Brexit bonanza.”  It speaks of “London’s remarkable post-Brexit boom” as tourists and locals alike dine out.  Tourism has been boosted by the lower pound.  Takings are robust in the hospitality business (though it has to be admitted that many of the employees in hotels and restaurants are migrants from the EU or elsewhere).

“2.2 million EU migrants working in Britain”

The Express reports latest figures showing that 2.2 million EU migrants are working in Britain – and the figure is up by 238,000 in the last twelve months.  The total figure for foreign workers is now 3.45 million – over a tenth of the workforce.  And workers from the eight former Communist countries in the EU number a million.  Of course no one suggests that these workers should be sent home – and many UK businesses would struggle if they lost them.  Nonetheless it is vital that we take control of our borders so that we can decide the rate at which immigration is allowed, and ensure that only workers with necessary skills are admitted.

German Minister recognises the economic importance of UK

During the EU referendum, we heard all kinds of sabre-rattling from Brussels, and the Remainians were keen to insist that the EU would “punish” the UK for having the temerity to leave.  I, on the other hand (along with other Brexiteers) insisted that EU/UK trade was so vital for the continent that they simply could not afford to be without a UK free trade deal.  We pointed to the huge trade deficit which the UK has with the rest of the EU.  Remainians tried to wriggle out of this self-evident fact by insisting that although UK exports to Europe were much less than imports, nonetheless our exports amounted to a higher percentage of our GDP than did continental exports to the UK as a proportion of their GDP (as though we bought our dinner with percentages, not money).

Now, it seems, the Leave position has been endorsed by no less a person that Germany’s Foreign Affairs Minister Michael Roth, who said that Britain could be given a “special status”.  He added “Given Britain’s size, significance and its long membership of the EU, there will probably be a special status which only bears limited comparison with other countries that have never belonged to the EU”.

“London banks eye continental locations”

It’s not all good news.  The Indy (of course it has to be the Indy) reports that major international banks based in London are looking at contingency plans, and renting office space on the continent, while they wait to see the detail of any new trade deal between the UK and the EU.  Of course large commercial organisations are entitled to consider future developments and to make contingency plans – they would be irresponsible not to do so.  Nonetheless I believe that the City’s strengths in financial markets will be sufficient to weather the storm – and that workable trading arrangements will be put in place.  This report sounds rather like a desperate attempt by the Indy to keep project Fear on life support.

Norway writes down its UK property assets

Norway’s massive sovereign wealth fund has written down its property assets in the UK by 5%, citing uncertainty after the Brexit vote.  This is maybe a responsible and conservative decision – but it’s worth noting that UK house prices continued to rise in the run-up to the Referendum, up 8.7% year-on-year in June, compared to 8.5% in May.

The Three Brexiteers

Not a novel by Alexandre Dumas, but the sorry saga of Boris Johnson, Liam Fox and David Davis, respectively running the Foreign Office, International Trade and the Brexit Department.  We’ve been regaled with turf-war stories about the three of them for some time, as clearly their responsibilities overlap, creating an ideal ground for conflict.  I don’t propose to analyse all the twists and turns, but I do recommend a thoughtful piece by Philip Johnston.  He looks at the structure and concludes that it was designed by Theresa May to create chaos.  Was her objective to see the Brexit planning hit a brick wall, providing an excuse to revisit the decision?  Or was it merely a way of responding to the voters whilst ensuring that decision-making remained securely in Number Ten?  We shall see.

“Race hate crimes up after Brexit vote”

The Remainians lost the argument and the referendum – but now they’re seeking to adopt the moral high ground by blaming the Brexit vote for a rise in reported “race hate” crimes.  There is of course no possible excuse for hate crimes of any kind – but there are also many other factors in play beside the Brexit vote.  May I suggest:

  • The broadening of the definition – any incident is now a race hate crime if you want it to be.
  • The intense media coverage of the issue leading to increased reporting levels
  • Race hate crimes may be an (unjustified) reaction to the horrific spate of terrorist atrocities we have seen on our TV screens in recent months.
  • Race hate crimes may be a response to the rapid growth of legal and illegal immigration (which Brexit seeks to resolve)
  • They may be a response (again unjustified) to the large numbers of reported sexual assaults on European women by migrants.

It is both facile and prejudicial to attribute the reported rise solely or primarily to the Brexit vote when so many complex and inter-related factors are in play.  It appears to be part of an organised effort to portray Brexit voters as ignorant, isolated and racist.  “Spiked” has an interesting and thoughtful analysis of this trend.  http://www.spiked-

Migrant problems in Paris

The Mail reports that French police have removed 900 migrants from camps in Paris – but they are rapidly filling up again as a hundred a day arrive. Europe’s migrant crisis shows no sign of abating.  Thank heaven we have the English Channel.  All we need now is to police it (and, of course, Brexit).

 

 

 

 

 

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48 Responses to Post-referendum Debrief August 18th

  1. David says:

    HATE CRIME RISE, DUE TO THE TERRIBLE ACTIONS OF “THE FEW, NUTS THOUGH THEY ARE, NOT DUE TO BREXIT.

    • Renee V. says:

      I am American and have supported Brexit from the beginning….the actions of all of the “Globalists” are the pure definition of HATE.

  2. alexr64 says:

    Many good points but why oh why can’t the Brexit camp make the point loud and clear that we have effectively stolen MILLIONS of get-up-and-go young people from East Europe to do mostly menial jobs in Britain which could and should be done by some of the 1.6 million unemployed of our own? How many protesting lefty hippy idiots, fresh from brainwashing at our taxpayer funded Trotskyite joke ‘universities’ have even attempted to find a job? How many religious nutjobs are we funding with unemployment benefits because they can’t be arsed to look for work and are unemployable? Why do we turn as blind eye to the workshy, long term unemployed with phony excuses? To tear Eastern European apart by stealing their kids to be fruit pickers, car washers and coffee shop workers is ridiculous for countless reasons.

    • ian wragg says:

      It seems that the DSS (or whatever it calls itself today) is only cracking down on certain sections of the population to find work.
      females not working and being tied to the home being a cultural thing apparently lets them off seeking work.

  3. Alan Wheatley says:

    Re “The Three Brexiteers”

    As all three are sharing Chevening House, there is the idea opportunity for weekend, collaboration meetings away from prying eyes and ears.

    If these three are any good they have the ideal opportunity to come up with and put forward a joint, coherent, collaborative plan for a swift and successful exit. Such an approach would likely take all the cabinet with them, including the PM, for such a plan from such a team would be very hard to argue against.

    On the other hand, my greatest fear for Brexit is that the politicians will cock it up, so lets hope Chevening does not become the venue for a cock-fight!

  4. Ex-expat Colin says:

    ah yes…Choudary:
    “The hate preacher was busy explaining how Islam could civilise people in the UK. Paxman rolled his eyes. Then, with his characteristic snort, he suggested that Choudary clearly disliked this country so: “Off you go, then, matey.” “Britain belongs to Allah,” Choudary replied.”

    http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/08/17/it-was-britains-hopeless-tolerance-which-allowed-anjem-choudarys

    This story pretty well sums up the inadequacy of authority in the UK. No confidence have I..in those who have allowed the total p*ss to be taken and at our expense (benefits). Politicians is what they are not.

  5. Alan Wheatley says:

    Email just received from the Taxpayers Alliance announcing that their Chief Executive, Jonathan Isaby, is leaving to take up the post of Editor of the soon-to-be launched “BrexitCentral.com”. So far so good, but what caught my eye is that “he joins Mathew Elliot at a new organisation promoting a positive vision of Britain after Brexit”.

    Is this the same “Mathew Elliot” who ran Vote Leave and who has said that one of that campaign’s three prongs was to attack UKIP? One to watch, I suggest.

    • charles wardrop says:

      Fortunately, management skills may not be essential for PMs but choosing the right people is.
      Two NZ trade experts were said to have offered to help Brexit, so hope something might come of that, since Remainiacs abound in Civil Service
      Maybe Greenies (?like Greg Clark) are best passed over, or moved, for anything to do with rescuing our shambolic energy policies.
      Do you agree?

  6. John Poynton says:

    An FTA with the EU would not resolve our massive trade deficit (for which thanks EU – you have been in charge of this. If you want a job done properly, do it yourself). We need to impose import tariffs to do this. Trade deficits were the root cause of the banking crisis and the low interest rates which have led to low growth (see Mervyn King in The End of Alchemy). Balance is more important than volume.

    As for the Three Brexiteers, I don’t think May is bright enough to have thought this up for herself. She must have been advised – by whom? May’s lack of management skills became massively apparent during her term as Home Secretary.

    • lasancmt says:

      “We need to impose import tariffs to do this” WTF? You know very well John that the UK cannot raise import tariffs let’s say on UK’s favorite German cars but at the same time for argument’s sake have a free trade deal with South Korea or China and import those cars tariff free. ukip fools think they can, but WTO rules prevent it. It has to treat every other nation as its ‘most favourited nation’. Now the EU they can discriminate because they are a different cattle of fish called a ‘Regional Trade Organisation’. You know that handy thing UK just left. So this is the start position after invoking Article 50. Nissans attract 10% tariff when exported into EU and German French Cars remain at 0%. Happy negotiating with such a poor hand.

      • ian wragg says:

        You keep coming out with this nonsense. Any sovereign country can impose reciprocal tariffs if they wish.
        If the EU imposes a 10% tariff on UK cars then we can impose the same on them.
        We can also impose anti dumping tariffs so stop talking nonsense.

      • lasancmt says:

        No you stop talking out of your arse. What you say is only true if the UK also quits membership of the World Trade Organisation. What next quit NATO? Quit United Nations? Dumb kippers like yourself haven’t got a clue about international law, that’s the problem. You just trust your nationalistic instincts but can’t be arsed to actually look up the text of a treaty your sovereign government signs UK up to. Pah!

      • catweazle666 says:

        “You know very well John that the UK cannot raise import tariffs”

        No, just like the rest of us he knows nothing of the kind.

        As a sovereign nation we will be able to raise whatever tariffs we like, when we like, on whatever we like, notwithstanding any uninformed, mendacious rubbish you post to the contrary.

        You really don’t know what you’re wittering about, do you?

        Or – more likely – are you just lying to wind people up, right?

        Why do you bother posting when you are just making yourself a laughing stock?

        Ah, I forgot, you’re a troll and that’s what you do…

      • lasancmt says:

        Here comes Catweazle again with the same old tune after sniffing too much cat nip . Never ever have I heard the guy back up an argument with a link of some sort to a respected publication. It this the sort of idiot you turn into when all you read is the ‘Express’? Why can’t you guys get it in your thick heads that every international agreement the UK signed meant sharing sovereignty ? Are you so blind you think only joining the EU meant sovereignty loss? But joining NATO doesn’t? Joining the World Trade Organisation doesn’t mean obeying WTO rules? Or are rules only for other countries? You guys really should take the time to visit http://www.eureferendum.com The author Dr. North is one of the most respected brexit scholars. He’s a total arsehole, but he knows his stuff. Read his monograph on Britain’s relationship with the WTO. Then come back with an argument slightly better than ‘you’re just a troll’

      • catweazle666 says:

        Why would I bother backing up an argument with a foolish troll like you?

        When did you ever produce a single piece of verifiable information on trade agreements, currency trading or any other matter you spout nonsense on?

        I save sensible debate for sensible debaters, not silly, adolescent plonkers.

        You know nothing, so stop pretending you do.

        Eejit.

      • lasancmt says:

        As Catweazle won’t come up with a link I will do it for those who’d like to raise the level of debate above throwing insults. Here is the link to Dr North WTO monograph. This in itself has an extensive list of references

        http://eureferendum.com/documents/BrexitMonograph002.pdf

        I will also cut and paste a quote that shows what I say is not nonsense

        “Tariff and non-tariff barriers
        Having acquired the status of a third country [after brexit], in respect of exports to the EU, the UK’s “non-Union goods” would be subject to the EU’s Common External
        Tariff (CET). This would be applied automatically, in accordance with the
        WTO’s non-discrimination rules which require all third countries to be treated
        equally for tariff purposes.16
        According to UK government sources, UK exporters to the EU would face
        tariffs to the equivalent weighted average 6.7 percent, plus incurring
        administrative burdens estimated as two percent of the transaction values.17 The
        range of tariffs could be wide. Switzerland, for instance, faces a 15.4 percent
        tariff when exporting prepared meats to the EU, a 3.2 percent tariff on instant
        print cameras (high-tech manufacturing) and a 12.2 percent tariff on anoraks
        (low cost manufacturing).18″
        Here another salient quote from the same blog
        http://eureferendum.com/blogview.aspx?blogno=85923
        On this page press ctrl-f and find the word “simpleton” and you find this quote

        “Simpletons like these – bolstered by serried ranks of Ukip supporters and other mindless creatures – then indulge in “the EU needs us” mantra to take them further on into their fantasy. Writes Bannerman:
        But I think we can do better than that. There are already indications that German car manufacturers would ensure their government does not impose tariffs on UK cars – why penalise BMW-owned Minis and Rolls Royces? There would be such demand from all sides for a better deal – for some added clauses sprinkled on top to make sure there weren’t barriers to the trade that is so important for France, Germany and other EU member states. They need access to the UK market.
        It was for occasions such as these that the epithet “FFS” was invented. If we leave the EU and were rash enough to have done so without a copper-bottomed deal, the situation would be straightforward. We would be bound by WTO MFN rules, under which we would be obliged to allow access to goods from EU Member States.

        On the other hand, as an RTA, the EU lies outside the MFN system. It would be permitted to discriminate against us, in our new-found status as a “third country”. As such, it could (and would) impose specific entry rules on our products, before allowing them access. Conformity might be very difficult (and expensive).

        In short, following Brexit, EU Member States would have relatively free access to our markets, but we would have highly restricted access to theirs. ”

        Over to you simpletons

      • lasancmt says:

        Isn’t their silence ‘deafening’ when kippers are confronted with expert opinion from way beyond their uneducated pay grades?

      • catweazle666 says:

        Would you like some cheese with your whine, trollboy?

        Nice bit of English Cheddar perhaps?

      • lasancmt says:

        Too many difficult words kipper?

  7. lasancmt says:

    ukip selective is a wonderful thing. It’s so cute to see Roger quoting all these articles saying thigs are not so bad after brexit, when brexit hasn’t even happened, is at best 2 years away and at worst may never happen. So what is quoted as brexit ‘good news’ is in fact basement bargain sales galore. Foreign tourists seeing their London eating out costs slashed with a plunging pound. Businessess hiring the staff they need while they still have a buoyant labour market thanks to free movement.

    Now let’s look at the flip side of what Roger reports: Inflation up, pension funds in big trouble and the UK consumer who buys 60% of their needs from abroad faced with rising prices in the shops.

    Is there a bonus for UK Manufacturing exports from this devalued pound?

    Well not really. I will leave one of ukip’s favourite newspaper to explain why not

    UK manufacturers see costs jump in wake of Brexit vote http://dailym.ai/2bjN1be

  8. RobtheFox says:

    “no longer sees a post Brexit recession” – it should be pointed out that this is a headline from the newspaper dated 27th June 2016!
    Moody’s, today have said through their Senior Analyst Madhavi that –
    “Uncertainty around the future of the economy outside of the common market will continue to dampen business ınvestment and consumer spending, as business holds back on hiring and making long term investments and as consumers postpone large spending decisions. However the fall in sterling will mitigate some of the negative effect in the short term by providing a boost for the economy.
    Our forecast incorporates an assumption that some fiscal loosening and monitary policy accommodation will support the economy limiting a slow down in growth.”
    Maybe not a recession but not actually roses all the way…looks like you pays your penny and gets your euro!

    • ian wragg says:

      ………will continue to dampen business ınvestment and consumer spending, as business holds back on hiring and making long term investments and as consumers postpone large spending decisions. ……….
      Consumer spending is up about 5% in July, unemployment is down and the stock market is higher. Carney unnecessarily reduced interest rates to weaken the £ and I’ve just ordered a new Honda made in Swindon.
      Nothing appears to be following the remainiacs script.

      • RobtheFox says:

        Yes, I did see those statistics and noted that they were coupled with a warning that monthly figures tended to be volatile, that the weather, weakness of sterling and sales were factors but tended to blur the forthcoming slowdown in the UK economy. The stock market figure is a little false bearing in mind the loss in value of sterling.
        There will be less purchasing power as inflation increases and earnings are limited by companies seeking to limit costs. Unemployment is expected to rise.
        Osborne and Carney may have over reacted but that will only become clear in the months ahead.
        Hope your new Honda meets with your satisfaction – just make sure it is made in Swindon and not imported from Spain!.

      • lasancmt says:

        Consumer spending up 5% as measured in a pound that’s devalued by 35% means in real terms it’s about 30% down. Same for the footsie measured in £- sterling means your investment is down if you bought UK £ stock using € or $. Welcome to the topsy turvy world of ukip economics.

      • catweazle666 says:

        “a pound that’s devalued by 35%”

        35%? Really?

        As since June 23 according to XE.COM the pound has in fact devalued from ~$1.45 to ~$1.30 and ~€1.30 to ~€1.15, neither of which is remotely close to a drop of 35%, I assume we can add simple arithmetic to the list of things you are clearly incapable of understanding.

  9. lasancmt says:

    As for this mythical quote made up by the spectator quoted by Roger, this has been debunked a long time ago. Not that this wouldn’t escape Rogers ‘selective perception’ Want to know what really happened read this TORY MEP DAN HANNAN GETS SMACKED DOWN BY GERMAN MINISTER OVER HIS BREXIT FANTASY WORLD https://politicalscrapbook.net/2016/08/tory-mep-dan-hannan-gets-smacked-down-by-german-minister-over-his-brexit-fantasy-world/

  10. Roger Turner says:

    Three million odd foreign immigrants “employed” here and oh yes paying their tax and insurance and none of them drawing benefits.
    But wait a bit, where are all the new hospitals? surgeries? Schools? Houses? Roads? Railways? Sewers? Waste disposal Facilities? Fire Services? Care Homes – they may be providing the staff to service some of the shortfall, but I`m damned sure with the evident strain on these services caused by overpopulation this effect is not being taken into consideration, either by our politicos or the MSM.
    Immigration was the main reason we voted for BRexit and yet it now seems to be marginalised.
    Where is UKIP making a song and a dance ” studying its collective navel” or “fiddling while Rome burns”
    Get Nigel back pronto he`s the only one with any stature,nous or presence within or outside the party,.
    Just a final thought.
    Aren`t the Remainians with their incipient ideological fervour for the EU the NEW EUROPHOBES?

    • ian wragg says:

      Of the 3 million (known), how many are car cleaners and the like, paying no tax and N.I. but enjoying all the benefits.
      Our local one is run by a Romanian and he has his wife and 2 kid, both at school.
      I bet they don’t contribute a cent to the exchequer and even send money back to their families.

      • lasancmt says:

        “I bet” is a sure sign someone is bigoted. You haven’t the faintest idea what these people declare or don’t declare. I do however know quite a few Brits on France that don’t declare their income because they loudly brag about it in our local bar

      • RobtheFox says:

        I wonder ıf Ian Wragg knows that it is his duty to report to the Dept for Works and Pensions any case where fraud is suspected…

      • lasancmt says:

        If I reported every English who drives around in our French village on UK plates, doesn’t pay tax etc. We’d loose 23% of our inhabitants. But it’s alright be cause you see Brits are not economic migrants when they buy a French properties for a fraction of UK prices, they’re ‘ex-pats’ and the French should be bloody grateful for every Euro they spend. Oh the irony of it all. But kippers don’t do irony. They think the world owes them a living.

      • RobtheFox says:

        I didn’t say Iasancmt but Ian Wragg.

      • lasancmt says:

        I totally got that Rob that’s why I ‘liked’ your comment. Show’s you have a sense of perspective totally lacking with Roger’s sycophants. My comment was more in general. Like Jesus asking the Pharisees ” If you’re without sin, cast the fist stone”. There lots of brexit batshit bricks flying in the comments section of our honourable ukip MEP

  11. Ex-expat Colin says:

    Apart from the stupidity of the EU and the follow on Brexit I question the validity of the EU anyway. None of it was voted for by the peoples of the countries. Common Market was as far as it got formally as far as I remember. So whatever the tossers of various Govts signed up to is…er ummm invalid.

    Anyway, whatever it actually means its a slow walk out of this rats nest and not the panicky bollox that goes on within these posts. Just challenge it all on behalf of the people…not the likes of Brown, Blair, Kinnock and Cameron etc.

  12. lasancmt says:

    “I question the ‘validity’ of the EU says kipper ex-pat Colin, who by the sound of his handle is living it up somewhere on the Costa del Crime and enjoying the free movement he would deny others….

  13. Dung says:

    1asancmt

    What figures (and what dates) did you use to work out that the pound devalued by 35%?

    If the country spent 5% more on consumer goods (in pounds sterling) then that is simply a fact and the value of sterrling against other currencies does not come into it?

    • lasancmt says:

      It’s called inflation. Get used to it. It will screw every pensioner’s pension pot. Those who enjoy their pension abroad get hit by a double whammy because in Euro’s their pension drops even more. But hey what does a kipper that never traveled beyond the next town care?

    • lasancmt says:

      I actually used 35% as a hypothetical measure only to show that the rising Footsie and retail index kippers bandy about need to be seen in the perspective of a rapidly devaluing pound. I actually checked it for your infotainment and against the dollar over the last 10 years it’s more like 38% devaluation and against the Euro 24%. About 12% of that happened directly after brexit. ukip’s beloved pound has been in decline for he last 100 years as the UK Empire declined. The following Bloomberg link puts this in a nice historic perspective: Brexit Accelerates the British Pound’s 100 Years of Debasement
      http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-07-04/brexit-accelerates-the-british-pound-s-100-years-of-debasement

      Yet the silly kippers keep posting stories that the end of the Euro is nigh. In your dreams perhaps?

      • catweazle666 says:

        Grow up…

      • catweazle666 says:

        “feel better now?”

        Given that not being entirely stupid, I have more of my money in gold – I’ve got about five grand’s worth round my neck right now – than in zeros in bank accounts, plus, my classic motorcycles, my various other tangible investments and my properties in both England and Europe are doing nicely, why wouldn’t I be?

        Oh, and my wife’s precious stone collection is doing all right too!

        That’s the great joy of being grown up, you learn take care of stuff like that, you see.

        Give it a year or eighteen months, it will all settle down and we’ll be full steam ahead to a rosy future while the EUSSR disappears up its own back orifice. That’s the trouble with you microwave “we want the World and we want it NOW!” generation, you can’t see further ahead than next weekend.

  14. Charles Wardrop says:

    Maybe attention-seeking trolls are best ignored?

    • catweazle666 says:

      You’re probably right, but it’s such fun poking them with sharp sticks and watching them froth and wriggle.

      Nearly as good as bear-bating, and it’s legal too!

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